SSTN Not The Weekly Mailbag: Offseason Thoughts

With the GM Meetings taking place this week, the offseason is officially in full swing. Japanese players are slowly being posted, we're beginning to hear our first free agent rumblings, dugout and front office positions are shifting, and GMs are laying the groundwork for the moves we'll see this offseason. It's an exciting time...at least, as exciting as it can be when there aren't real baseball games being played.

The regularly scheduled SSTN Mailbag will return next week. For now, I wanted to share some mixed thoughts on where the Yankees stand this offseason. Let's get at it:

• Of the Japanese players set to be posted this winter, the one who has my eye the most is SP Tatsuya Imai. His build is a bit small as compared to typical starters in the US, but his stuff is excellent. Imai has a mid-90s fastball that has some life, and he can reach back for high-90s heat when he needs it. He throws a solid change-up/splitter that is usable against both lefties and righties, but the interesting pitch is his slider. Imai throws his slider from a 3/4 arm slot, but the pitch actually has arm side run and drop with some frequency. This is similar to postseason star, Trey Yesavage, only from a completely different arm angle. I think Imai's stuff translates, and though the NPB is going through something of a dead ball era, Imai ranked at the top of the charts in every category, giving me less fear about the transition. The Yankees need to be in the market for starting pitching this offseason, and Imai checks an awful lot of boxes as a 27 year old with great stuff and results to match.

• Many Yankee fans are likely scarred by the organization's recent failures to get Japanese players to take their money. Other teams were also sour last offseason when Roki Sasaki's ultimate destination seemed preordained, as Japanese players gravitate towards the West Coast, and the Dodgers more specifically. I don't expect that to be the case with Imai for a very simple reason: his agent is Scott Boras, whose players are typically available to the highest bidder. If all it costs is money, then this is a win-win for the Yankees.

• I was very surprised to see that the Yankees fired longtime International Scouting Director, Donny Rowland. Not that I think it's wrong, just that I was surprised. While the Yankees have proven to be successful with some of their under-the-radar international signings over the last decade-plus, the vast majority of their big money efforts have been significant whiffs, with only Jasson Dominguez becoming a regular big leaguer among the droves of big money international signings. The Yankees were long known for their dominance in international scouting in Latin America, but the results haven't been there in a long time. Too often, the Yankees of this era are wedded to the status quo while trusting the process. Here, for once, the Yankees realized a change was needed.

• That doesn't mean that there isn't blame to share here; it takes a village to make a ballplayer, so the player development side of the equation in Latin America and here in the US also should share some blame here, but I also think that some of the big money lottery ticket flops were a result of scouting recommending players with highly volatile profiles.

• Moving on to the big league club, I actually think the Yankees have a nice nucleus of talent coming into the offseason. In fact, I think the team is in better shape at the beginning of this offseason than they were last offseason. That doesn't mean that this is anything close to a finished product, as there are clear holes to fill, but there's more to work with this offseason.

• That bodes well for the Yankees next year, since this year's team won 94 games despite looking reasonably barren last November.

• Besides the pitching staff, where I'd like to see at least one starter and a couple of bullpen arms, I think an outfielder and a Ryan McMahon replacement are on my wish list.

• Jasson Dominguez is playing winter ball. This makes me very happy, as he needs some right-handed at-bats and some time out in LF. I still very much believe in Dominguez's talent, but I think he needs to come into camp ready to prove that he's improved in LF defensively. The ability to do so is there with reps.

• I do not believe Spencer Jones is ready to begin next season in the big leagues. The Yankees clearly love him, but I wonder if they'd deal him for the right return. Cashman noted that Jones would have already been declared a starter in MLB for numerous teams at this week's GM Meetings. That sounds to me like a sell job to get interested teams to give him a call on Jones.

• I wouldn't be surprised if neither Dominguez nor Jones are untouchable in trades. As much as I like Dominguez, I think everyone has their price (except for maybe Aaron Judge).

• Speaking of Judge, I'm relieved he won the MVP Award; it was the right decision. By basically every angle other than the fun narrative of a catcher who hit 60 homers, Judge is producing some of the best seasons in the history of baseball. He got robbed of an MVP previously, and I was worried it might happen again. Thankfully, he didn't.

• Now let's hope he adds a World Series ring to his resume.

• This is going to be a somewhat controversial opinion, but I wouldn't re-sign Luke Weaver this offseason. I have an article coming shortly on him specifically, and I see some real red flags in his profile that give me pause about his long-term prospects.

• The rumor mill had some doozies this week. From whispers about Paul Skenes hoping to become a Yankee to Bo Bichette's desire to play for the Yankees if he doesn't return to the Jays, it's been fun. Rumors are just that, though: rumors. That said, I'd gladly take both guys.

• Almost no teams consider Bichette to be a shortstop anymore, but I gather that there are mixed opinions on whether or not he's a 3B or a 2B. Bichette looked good at 2B in the World Series, but I also think he'd look good at 3B. His offensive profile would help further diversify the Yankee offense, and I think his skillset should age well. I like Bichette quite a bit as I look at free agency.

• I am really on the fence about bringing Bellinger back. There's a lot in his profile that makes me think he's going to fall off of a performance cliff in his early-mid 30s.

• I will be really interested to see how much money the Yankees are willing to spend this offseason. They have no shot at getting under the highest luxury tax tier without shedding some salary, so it makes it all-the-more appealing to go for it. Someone explain that to Hal.