SSTN Not The Weekly Mailbag: Wild Card Triumph!

There are Mailbag questions this week, but somehow, a Mailbag just doesn't seem appropriate after last night. Frankly, last night was some of the best feeling I've had as a Yankee fan in a very long time. Below, I'm going to share some of my raw thoughts about last night's game, the series in general, and look ahead to the Jays.

As a quick programming note, I will be in Europe for 10 days beginning on Sunday (awful timing...if only I didn't have to make a living). When that happens, I almost always keep the Mailbag going. Unfortunately, my schedule this time is such that it will be nearly impossible to manage the Mailbag next week, so you will get another Not The Weekly Mailbag next Friday. We'll be back to a normal Mailbag schedule beginning on October 17th. That doesn't mean I won't be around, though - I'm going to do my best to watch the condensed games and write some quick posts about my thoughts, so you'll still have to deal with me.

In the meantime, please keep sending your SSTN Mailbag questions to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. Given the usual flow of questions to the SSTN Mailbag, I expect the Mailbag on 10/17 to be longer than usual. For today though, let's get at it:

• I predicted that the Yankees would sweep the Red Sox, but I also noted that I was incredibly nervous about the manner in which Aaron Boone would manage the team. Game 1 proved all of my fears correct. I had a post planned between games 1 and 2 about the multiplier effect of small tactical errors, using Game 1 as the playground. I didn't get to it, but I'll give you the summary here. Pulling Fried when he still had more in the tank opened up the possibility that someone in the 'pen wouldn't have a good night. Not pinch-running Dominguez in the 9th for Goldschmidt didn't just potentially cost the Yankees 1 run; we saw that Chapman got rattled by speed and craftiness on the basepaths. Dominguez could have been the implement by which the Yankees clawed back and bring out a lesser version of Chapman. Instead, Boone both pushed his chips in too early with Fried and held them too close at the end of the game.

• I'm sure most of us feared the worst after Game 1, particularly because of Boone's actions.

• I have to give credit where credit is due: Boone showed real agility and flexibility in Games 2 and 3. He pulled the right strings by trusting his starters; he played 2 of his best players, Rice and Chisholm, even when the matchups indicated otherwise; and he left the platoon advantage in long enough in Game 3 before handing McMahon 3B, just in time for McMahon to make an absolutely spectacular, Jeter-like play. I have really beat up on Aaron Boone over the last few years, not incorrectly, but it's only right that I give him the credit he deserves here. He managed in a nearly flawless fashion in Games 2 and 3, and for the first time, I'd argue that he out-managed the opposing manager.

• Ryan McMahon is going to be really, really sore this morning, but I'm sure he'll say it's all worth it. He's probably right.

• I noted that I think that Aaron Boone out-managed Alex Cora in Games 2 and 3, and I don't think that's an understatement. Cora made a serious unforced error in Game 2, and it cost the Red Sox in Game 3. Former Yankee prospect, Garrett Whitlock, was asked to throw more pitches than he had thrown in a game in 2 years in Game 2. That made him unavailable in Game 3. I am positive that Cora would have pulled Early sooner had Whitlock been available. Whitlock is the best righty reliever on the Red Sox. The Yankees have struggled to hit him, as has everyone else. Being able to go to Whitlock at the first sign of trouble in the 4th inning likely would have had a better chance of keeping the Yankees off the board. That single mistake cost the Red Sox a chance to beat the Yankees.

• That said, the only way the Red Sox were going to score any runs last night was to last into extra innings. Cam Schlittler produced one of the best playoff performances I've ever seen with my own eyes on the mound last night. He was as dominant as I could have imagined. He worked with velocity and moxie around the plate all night. More than his enhanced use of the curveball and slider (more on that in a minute), I was incredibly impressed by the way he used 3 distinct fastballs to keep the ball off of the middle of the bat. Schlittler sat between 99-100 MPH throughout nearly the entirety of his 8 inning start with both his 4-seam fastball and sinker. He also mixed in his cutter at 94-96 MPH in fastball counts. Using 3 separate fastball shapes really kept hitters honest when Schlittler didn't just blow heat by guys, which he did with relative impunity.

• Statcast and ESPN credited Schlittler with an absurd number of cutters last night, but as I've written previously since late-August, the slight majority of those pitches are not cutters: they're sliders. Schlittler is using a mid-90s cutter up in the zone, like a fastball, and a low-90s short slider low and away to righties or down and in to lefties in breaking ball counts. EJ Fagan had a great post the other day, in which he questioned whether Schlittler was elite, or lucky given the Statcast sliders, particularly the subpar ranking of his breaking balls. I guarantee that those percentile rankings would be far higher if Statcast were properly classifying Schlittler's slider as a slider, not a cutter (where it just enhances his already insane fastball ranking).

• In the heat of last night, I said that Schlittler had the best performance of any pitcher I'd ever seen in the playoffs. As the adrenaline wears off, that opinion is sticking around. Last night, we watched the emergence of an ace-caliber pitcher.

• I wrote it in the Game Thread last night, but I'll say it here: I'm more than willing to admit when I'm wrong, but I'm also going to toot my own horn here - I am the only guy writing on the internet who predicted that Schlittler would be a key cog this season, and I noted that with a tweak or two, Schlittler could be a high-end pitcher. I've almost never been happier that I was right.

• Our record here at SSTN is pretty darn good, frankly.

• The issues and sloppy baseball that has plagued the Yankees disappeared for two nights. The Yankees fielded beautifully, played smart baseball, and didn't make unforced errors in strategy. It was a joy to watch. If they do it again in the ALDS, we'll call it a trend. We can only hope.

• I think the Red Sox are a better team than the Blue Jays, regardless of what their regular season records say. The Red Sox had better pitching, fielding, and a deeper, more varied offense. The Yankees should be well-prepared for a series against the Blue Jays.

• I'm thankful the Yankees get a game off here; the bullpen and the rest of the guys sure need a day off to rest after the last 3 pressure-filled days.

• Who will be the Yankees 4th starter? I very much wonder if the Yankees will start one of Warren or Gil, with the other in reserve in a piggyback role should the other falter. We've seen this strategy fail in the past (who can forget the Deivi Garcia-JA Happ debacle), but it can work if used intelligently.

• I really believe that Gil will be the guy against the Jays. His pure stuff is better, and though I'm very worried about him, I think he has a higher likelihood of success than Warren, who to me, is a 5th starter on a championship team, at best.

• I really believe that the Yankees match up well against the Jays. The best part? Most of the bullpen should be well-rested.

• To me, everyone on offense looks pretty good, and I think they can hit with anyone. The pitching staff appears to have peaked at the right time...I think things are looking up.

• I'm going with the Yankees in 4 games over the Jays. No sweep predictions this time.