The 2023 Yankees Season: The 2/5th Mark

By James Vlietstra

June 12th, 2023

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Overview:

The Yankees recently completed their 64th game of the year. This is the 40% mark of the 162 game regular season marathon. This is the point of the year in which you can clearly see what each team’s reality is. It’s also the ideal time to start identifying areas of which you can make personnel improvements.

These past 32 games were much more successful than the previous. The Yankees record was 21-11 over this most recent span. They moved from a team outside of the playoffs to one that is firmly in. All the clamoring and complaining from last month has, at least temporarily, been muted. No front office or coaching jobs are currently being called to get the axe.

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Team Statistics:

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What Has Been Better (Since May 6th):

There is a lot to delve into to review the most recent 20% of the season. The biggest factor in their success was that the offense finally came alive. Perhaps it is partially due to the opponents that they played, but the increase in runs scored coincided with the return of Harrison Bader and Aaron Judge from the injured list. The team’s offensive rankings vastly improved while they were in the line-up, but unfortunately both of these superstars have landed back on the IL.

Another key factor in the success of the ball club is the bullpen and their management of use. For those that like to bash Aaron Boone at every possible chance, they need to realize just how difficult it is to juggle eight pitchers in the bullpen and avoid rust or overuse with any of them. Led by the re-emergence of Clay Holmes, the Yankees team bullpen ERA for the season is 2.78. This is followed by the second place Cleveland Guardians at 3.04, and then by the Houston Astros in third at 3.24, nearly a half run behind New York.

A return to health had also benefited the team. As stated earlier, Judge and Bader both came off the IL and were having tremendous impacts before being banged up again. And, hopefully they can both return soon. Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Tommy Kahnle, and Luis Severino have all also been recently activated after extended stints on the IL, though there are still 12 players on the IL, including seven on the 60 day.

Is the winning sustainable? Well on the positive side, they have a very favorable schedule. Of their next 37 games, only ten are against teams that currently have a .500 or better record. They play 16 games against last place teams from five different divisions. The sixth division could add four more games by last place teams if they properly handle the Mets.

Aside from Aaron Judge, the offense is quite inept. It is scary to think what this team would look like had he left as a free agent. It is also worth pointing out that the Yankees seem to have gotten away from the speed and aggressiveness they showcased earlier in the season.

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Hitting Statistics:

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Roster Review:

The starting pitching has been a mixed bag of late. As mentioned earlier, the bullpen has been tremendous. Catching has room for improvement. The infield has been good overall. The outfield is a bunch of placeholders. Let’s get into some more specifics.

Gerrit Cole continues to be the ace of the staff, but he has been getting hit hard his last several outings. Nestor Cortes has struggled to capture last year’s magic and has landed on the IL. Domingo German has been a staff leader in the past and based on recent results, is poised to do it again. Clarke Schmidt is beginning to show flashes of why he was worthy of a first round pick, however more is still expected of him. Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez have given us reason to be confident when they take the mound. Luis Severino needs to improve upon what he’s shown since returning from the IL. And Carlos Rodon seems on the verge of finally returning to a Major League mound and making his Yankees debut.

Beyond Holmes, just about the entire bullpen staff has been outstanding. Wandy Peralta is next to unhittable against lefties. Ian Hamilton, Michael King and Ron Marinaccio seem like shutdown relievers. Even Albert Abreu, Jimmy Cordero and Nick Ramirez, have been accomplishing what is asked of them. A yearly strength of the Yankees continues to shine.

At catcher, something needs to happen. While I appreciate a backstop that handles the pitching staff and calls a good game this is the organization that has provided its fans with Bill Dickey, Yogi Berra, Elston Howard, Thurman Munson, and Jorge Posada. Those 5 provided a great lineage of legendary players and offensive beasts. The combined WAR of Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka this season is a whopping 0.2. That's not good enough. Here’s a novel idea: start giving Austin Wells some left field reps down in Somerset. Call him up around the beginning of July. Put his bat in the lineup every day. Catch him 4-5 times a week, LF the rest. Trevino catches twice a week. IKF is the emergency catcher if needed.

Around the infield, Anthony Rizzo has had an overall solid year. However, since the start of June he’s in a 1-27 slump. Gleyber Torres is having a pretty good year and seems to excel in clutch situations. Anthony Volpe has an even higher WAR than Torres, though his 30% strikeout rate is something to note from a rookie. As I mentioned earlier, the Yankees aggressiveness has taken a hit and part of that is Volpe. It’s hard to steal bases if you don’t get on base. Josh Donaldson is 4-19 with 4 HRs since returning from the IL. Though a small sample, the Yankees would be thrilled if this resurgence continues. If it doesn’t, expect fans to start screaming to release him and call up Oswald Peraza. Another player in a dreadful drought is DJ LeMahieu, who is just 5-34 with just one extra base hit in his last nine games. The Yankees recently DFA'ed a 33 year old with three years remaining on his contract that was under performing (see: Aaron Hicks). I highly doubt that they consider this with LeMahieu, and I’m not advocating for it, but he was expected to sign a 4/$89M contract but instead they gave him 6/$90M to lower the AAV. Maybe this becomes a future consideration if things don't improve.

The current active roster contains five outfielders: Willie Calhoun, Jake Bauers, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Billy McKinney, and Oswaldo Cabrera. The only one that came to spring training on the Yankees 40-Man roster and who had MLB OF experience was Cabrera who played 34 games there last year after converting from the infield late last season. Cabrera has a -0.7 WAR on the season and needs to get back to what was working for him last year. As for the rest of them, they will need to contribute when called and hold down the fort until Judge and Bader return...hopefully soon.

Giancarlo Stanton is 3-18 since returning from the IL. I’d love to say I expect him to be the savior of the line-up amidst other offensive injuries. However, since 2018, he’s only played 308 games and has managed a meager 5.1 WAR over that span. That’s one WAR for every 60 games or so. He is likely to play 2-3 weeks, hit a few balls 118+ MPH to give us reason to hope, before another tweak lands him back on the IL until August. If he’s healthy in October, it’s possible that he slams six homers over a course of five games as he leads the team to the fall classic, but just as likely that he doesn’t suit up at all.

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Pitching Statistics:

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A Wrap-Up 2/5th of the Way Through:

The Yankees have put themselves in position to not only compete for a playoff spot, but make a push for the division title. A month ago, after the Rays got off to such a hot start, that possibility seemed very unlikely.

I see Brian Cashman being aggressive at the trade deadline as he once again has 130+ possible rule 5 eligible players. Of these players, only Austin Wells and Jasson Dominguez are assured to be protected. Meanwhile several players including Andres Chaparro, Elijah Dunham, and Brandon Lockridge are playing themselves into the major league conversation. There’s lots of assets in the system to help improve the big league club.