The Gleyber Torres Fallacy

By Andy Singer

February 11th, 2024

Photo Credit: AP

Gleyber Torres is a good baseball player. Even those among us that have issues with his mental lapses and occasional issues with focus would grudgingly agree that Gleyber Torres is a good baseball player. In 2023, he was the only regular player behind Aaron Judge that was an above-average hitter for the year. That speaks to the dumpster fire that was 2023, but it also highlights the fact that Gleyber Torres was pretty good!

In light of that fact, there has been significant discussion this off-season about the possibility of a contract extension for Gleyber Torres on the eve of his first bid for free agency. EJ Fagan wrote a detailed account of Torres' relative merits as a second baseman, and his chances to get an extension just last week. I strongly suggest you check it out. EJ's post makes it fairly clear that Torres is one of the best hitting second basemen in baseball, and with the changes he's made at the plate, I'd bet on that being the case for awhile longer. More to the point, the bat is good enough to play even at other positions.

One point about which EJ and I agree is that Torres' defense is playable, but nothing more at second base. Statcast's OAA measured Torres as an average defender in 2022 (0 OAA) and as a pretty poor defender in 2023 (-3 OAA). This closely matches what my eyes told me in both seasons, though I would simply say that Torres is only slightly below-average defensively in the aggregate. Honestly, it is a storyline that is flying somewhat under the radar coming into 2024. If Gleyber produces another below-average or worse season defensively at second base, I wonder if the Yankees will look for an upgrade at that spot.

That doesn't necessarily mean that Gleyber is an absolute gonner, even in the worst case. EJ makes passing mention about Gleyber's arm strength in his post, and though EJ's overall article is excellent, he fell victim to the same fallacy that many people fall into when evaluating Torres' defense. EJ, like many others who have written about Torres' relative merits this off-season, noted that Torres has at least below-average arm strength and possibly one of the worst arms in the Majors.

The problem? This argument doesn't hold water. Most of you will immediately pull up his average throwing velocity numbers from Statcast in 2022 and 2023 to prove me wrong. For sure, Gleyber is in the bottom-third of second basemen in baseball in average throwing velocity since returning to the position full time two years ago. However, digging a bit deeper shows that this cursory number is flawed.

Gleyber Torres was a terrible shortstop in 2020 and 2021. Few people will make an argument to the contrary. However, that doesn't mean that Gleyber didn't have certain skillsets that could make you squint and say that maybe he could fake it there. Here are Statcast's arm strength rankings on throws just from shortstop as a shortstop in 2020 (the last column shows averages for that player at the shortstop position):

Here they are again in 2021:

For all Gleyber Torres did wrong at shortstop, one thing he had was one of the better arms in baseball. Do we think that in 2 seasons, Torres suddenly forgot how to throw a baseball? I think it is far more likely that Torres is unsure of his footwork on that side of the diamond, and often lays back on his throws to ensure that he's accurate. More often that not, throws from second base are over a short distance and routine anyway, so it is also likely that he is rarely throwing it close to max effort, which also brings his average velocity numbers down. Statcast is a very powerful tool, but making general assessments about skills based off of the Statcast averages is often flawed without digging into the numbers a bit deeper.

The idea that Gleyber Torres has a weak arm is a fallacy; in fact, his arm is quite good, and likely plays at other arm-dependent positions like 3B, where the Yankees also have question marks in current and future seasons. I have no idea whether Torres has the reaction timing or the footwork to make 3B work, but he at least has the hands and arm for the position. Torres certainly will want to stay at 2B this season in order to maximize his next contract (second basemen are worth more on the open market than third basemen), but the idea that Torres shouldn't be extended because he doesn't have a positional home in the next couple of years is likely a premature thought. Gleyber's arm should play anywhere on the diamond. I have no idea if Torres will get a contract extension, but his arm shouldn't be a deterring factor.