The Rotation Needs Reinforcements

by Domenic Lanza

February 9, 2026

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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As I sit to write this on Wednesday night, FanGraphs projects the Yankees Opening Day rotation to be:

1. Max Fried

2. Cam Schlittler

3. Will Warren

4. Ryan Weathers

5. Luis Gil

   
   

They also have swingmen Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough sitting in the bullpen. On paper, or on your screen, that doesn’t seem terrible, given that Carlos Rodón should be back by early May, with Gerrit Cole following in early June. It isn’t too hard to veer towards optimism with that in mind, and wonder what the team will do when it has too much pitching.

Unfortunately, I think the pragmatic approach requires looking back to this time last year, when Marcus Stroman was viewed as such a luxury that fans were wishcasting him being dealt for upgrades elsewhere (or simple salary relief). Instead, the Yankees needed to call upon him for nine starts … and Spring Training signees Yarbrough and Carlos Carrasco for a combined fourteen. And, lest we forget, Schlittler, who made fourteen starts on his own, wasn’t even expected to be in the majors in 2025.

And so we circle back to the current rotation, and try to see if a little more depth is needed.

1. Fried - erstwhile ace, though one who always misses a start or three.

2. Schlittler - has 87.1 IP (including playoffs) in the majors, after making only 6 starts at Triple-A.

3. Warren - inconsistent as a rookie, with a mid-rotation ceiling, but has a track record of durability since turning pro in 2022.

4. Weathers - has never shown the ability to stay healthy, having thrown 417.2 professional innings over the last four seasons (and has four trips to the IL the last two years.

5. Gil - lengthy injury history, and pitched quite poorly last year.

There is potential here, to be sure - loads when it comes to Schlittler and Weathers (and maybe even Gil). But it feels quite ambitious to rely on this group plus Yarbrough and Blackburn for at least a month. And this, of course, presumes that all goes according to plan with Rodón and Cole.

There are two big hurdles on the route to upgrading the rotation, though. The first is simply who do you move to the bullpen, or down to the minors? My first instinct would be to work with a six-man rotation and let that sort itself out, as Weathers and Gil are trying to get into full-season mode, and Schlittler and Warren are coming off of career-highs in innings. If that’s a non-starter, then I would argue that the move is to transition Gil to the bullpen. That has, to many, been his destiny since he joined the Yankees organization, and he certainly did not look like a starting pitcher in 2025.

I would not be opposed to moving Gil to the bullpen. They certainly need help out there, and Gil’s exactly the sort whose stuff and approach would play up there. Moreover, in the age of batter minimums and quick hooks, another pitcher that can go two-plus innings would be a boon.

The other hurdle is the seeming lack of interest in increasing payroll. An upgrade is all but certain to be in the low eight figures (though, that could change as we get closer to the regular season), and the team seems hesitant to pay that. Factor in their comfort level with the rotation, and this is probably the biggest issue.

Even so, it’s worth exploring given the cornucopia of options out there, even ignoring Framber Valdez’s puzzling presence on the market. I’ve identified five pitchers that I think are worth the above machinations, and I’ll present them in alphabetical order.

Chris Bassitt

Bassitt has been a bastion of consistency since joining the AL East in 2023. In three seasons with the Blue Jays, he averaged roughly 32 starts, 180 IP, 8.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.89 ERA, 4.13 FIP, and 2.5 fWAR. His numbers did not stray far in any of those years, either, taking on an almost metronomic quality. Moreover, he moved to the bullpen for the postseason with nary an issue, and allowed just one run in 8.2 innings, striking out 10 and walking 1. His stuff doesn’t jump off the page, but he has made a career of limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground.

Lucas Giolito

Despite not living up to his prospect pedigree, Giolito has been a relatively durable, league-average starter for nearly a decade. He has never been consistent, which likely makes him the weakest of these options, but it’s tough to ignore the upside that may still exist; he’s only 31, after all. And he pitched to a 3.41 ERA/4.17 FIP in 145 IP last year. Giolito is said to be fully healthy after missing a couple of starts late last season.

Zack Littell

Here’s a fun fact: Yankees traded Littell and Dietrich Enns to the Twins for Jaime Garcia on July 30, 2017. It took quite some time, but the 30-year-old righty found himself with the Rays in 2023, and has been a solid pitcher since then. Littell joined the Rays rotation on July 30, 2023, and has made 72 starts, tossing 408.1 IP of 3.72 ERA/4.37 FIP ball, with 7.0 K/9 and a minuscule 1.5 BB/9. And like Bassitt, Littell did so (mostly) in the AL East.

Also of note: Littell has tossed at least 5 IP in 84% of his starts in this stretch. That may well make him a workhorse nowadays.

Nick Martinez

Martinez returned to the majors from Japan in 2022, and has worked as a swingman over the last four seasons. The results have been quite strong, on the whole: 192 G (61 GS), 524.2 IP, 7.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.67 ERA, 3.75 xERA, 3.96 FIP, 7.3 fWAR, 9.2 bWAR. His splits aren’t too dramatic, either, as he has a 4.19 FIP as a starter, and 3.58 in relief. That isn’t nothing, to be sure - but that’s about what you’d expect from most pitchers bouncing back and forth.

And, given that he’s been doing it for four years now, I have to imagine that Martinez would be willing to continue the swingman role for a signing team (if necessary). So, in the event that he was signed and everyone was miraculously healthy and productive, he would represent an upgrade over Yarbrough and Blackburn - or a darn good third head on that hydra.

Justin Verlander

Yes, he’ll be 43 in two weeks. And, yes, he’s probably at least mildly delusional if he still thinks he can reach 300 wins (only 34 to go). That said, Verlander was quite good last season, with better than league-average marks in BB%, ERA, and FIP, and average-ish marks in K% and HR%. Statcast effectively paints him as an average starter.

He also got stronger as the year went on, with a 4.70 ERA/4.22 FIP in 76.2 first half innings, and 2.99/3.47 in 75.1 IP thereafter. Verlander isn’t an ace anymore, nor anything close to it - but he still has something left.

In my mind, each of these individuals represents an upgrade to the bottom line in the rotation, be it a five or six-man format. None of them are likely to start a playoff game, but the Yankees wouldn’t have to pay for that expectation, either. And for a team with World Series aspirations and a well-known need for rotation stability, any of them would be well worth the money.