The Tuesday Discussion – How Many Pitcher Wins in 2021?
This week we asked our writers:
As camp opens, let’s make more predictions.
How many wins will each of these pitchers end the 2021 season with?
Here are the responses:
Gerrit Cole – 16
Corey Kluber – 11
James Taillon – 11
Luis Severino – 8
Jordan Montgomery – 10
Deivi Garcia – 6
Gerrit Cole – 19
Corey Kluber – 13
James Taillon – 14
Luis Severino – 5
Jordan Montgomery – 8
Deivi Garcia – 7
Ed Botti – Not having a crystal ball to know if Kluber and Taillion are healthy and able to take the field every 5 days , I am going to be reasonably optimistic and base projections on them being healthy and making 22 – 25 starts and pitching deep enough into games to get a decision before Boone pulls them after 75 – 80 pitches.
Severino will be a late season addition, so not much expected out of him. Montgomery and Garcia are healthy. I guess German is a non-factor at this point?
Cole will have a solid workhorse season, but I see the bullpen blowing a few wins for him, as well as Boone pulling him in winnable close games when he throws 100 or so pitches.
Gerrit Cole 17-8
Corey Kluber 8-7
James Taillon 11-9
Luis Severino 3-2
Jordan Montgomery 11-9
Deivi Garcia 5 – 6
Gerrit Cole – 22
Corey Kluber – 13
James Taillon – 16
Luis Severino – 7
Jordan Montgomery – 4
Deivi Garcia – 15
Derek McAdam – Gerrit Cole: 17 – Cole is going to be the ace of the squad and while it seems likely he will make around 30 starts, several of those will probably end with a loss or a no decision. However, 17 wins is a nice way to begin.
Corey Kluber: 12 – Kluber has dealt with injuries over the past couple seasons, but I believe he is going to hit his stride when summertime rolls around. He is a fierce competitor that wants to get back to his winning ways, and I believe he will do that.
James Taillon: 10 – Taillon is another player that has dealt with his share of injuries over the past couple of seasons and is ready to get back on the mound. Taillon has not won double digit games in a single season since 2018, so this is a nice goal to set entering the 2021 season.
Luis Severino: 4 – Although Severino seems to be making significant progress in his recovery from Tommy John Surgery, I do not expect to see him back until July. Even then, Aaron Boone will probably use him as more of an extended opener than a starter. He will probably be expected to pitch more than five innings towards the end of August, which makes him a valuable option in September.
Jordan Montgomery: 12 – Montgomery has proven that he is a Major league-caliber pitcher with a nasty arsenal. He will be a consistent name in the rotation throughout the season and will have plenty of opportunities to win games. I expect his win count to go up this season.
Deivi Garcia: 8 – Garcia is entering his second season with the Yankees, but will endure his first full campaign. I expect Garcia will pitch well to begin the year, but may change roles once Severino returns. This could mean he comes in for long-term relief or Boone finds another role for him. Nonetheless, I believe he takes a big step in terms of learning the game at the Major league level, but not necessarily in terms of wins.
Chris O’Connor – I think Gerrit Cole will finish with 18 wins in 2021. He seems to be the only Yankee starter who really has a long leash, and everyone loves when his competitive intensity makes it difficult for Boone to remove him from a game. With Kluber and Taillon, both are very talented and will have a major impact on the team, but I expect the team to be conservative with both as they build back up from recent injury-plagued seasons. I’ll project 13 wins for Kluber and 12 for Taillon. The same logic applies to Severino but since, at this point, it appears that he will return around August, I’ll say 5 wins for Sevy. I think Montgomery will earn a spot in the rotation and finish with 11 wins; he normally does not go deep into games, but I still think he has a good year. I don’t think Deivi Garcia stays in the rotation all year, mostly because the team can afford to be patient with him with all of the depth they have, so I’ll say 8 wins for Deivi.
Mike Whiteman –
Cole – 17 wins Kluber – 9 wins Taillon – 8 Wins Severino – 5 wins Monty – 12 wins Garcia – 13 wins
I think Kluber and Taillon will be handled cautiously, especially early, thus the lower win totals. I can see a scenario with Garcia starting out the season hot, and cooling down as the season moves on, and then Kluber and Taillon getting stronger through the year.
Monty will be steady and valuable, finishing second to Cole in innings pitched.