The Tuesday Discussion: Miller AND Manny?

July 28, 2026

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This week we presented the following scenario to our writers:

If the Padres were willing to trade Mason Miller to the Yankees, but insisted they take Manny Machado (and his contract) as part of the deal, and asked for a collection (let's say 3 top prospects), but let the Yankees keep George Lombard, Jr., would you make the deal?

Here are their responses:

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Ed Botti - Absolutely not. As great as Miller is and I'd love to have him, last time I checked he doesn't hit or play outfield,  SS , catcher or 2nd base. Bednar is 20 for 22 in save opportunities. Closer is not their priority and not the reason why they are in 2nd place. Plus, Machado is owed $273,000,000 from 2027 through 2033. In other words, it's another Stanton type contract acquisition or worse contract that will inevitably block them from other future star player acquisitions. It would be the epitome of over paying. I'd love a 3 bedroom on LBI, but not at $2.5mm, especially if i already had one somewhere else. With Judge, Stanton and Bellinger hurt, Volpe, Wells and Jazz under achieving,  I'd focus on run production,  not run prevention. Pitching wise I'd add set up arms.

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Paul Semendinger - We have been waiting about a gazillion years now for a World Championship. I am tired of waiting and always looking to next year. This year it is, absolutely, right there in front of them.

Miller is baseball's best closer. His acquisition would make David Bednar an outstanding set-up man giving the Yankees a lockdown last few innings which would shorten every game.

Manny Machado is expensive and tied up until forever, BUT...his 22 homer runs this year would be second on the club, his 63 runs batted in would also be second. And this is Manny having a poor year. Machado plays every day, he can still field the position well and he is a massive upgrade in every way over Ryan McMahon.

On the business end, the Yankees are working on floating equity (or something like that) to increase their financials. The Yankees have the finances to not let Machado's contact hurt them, they just need the willingness to go big. The problem with the Yankees is not that they cannot afford to pay big salaries, it's that they do not wish to. The Yankees have the money - don't let them make you believe they don't.

I am tired of waiting for a World Championship. The time to go big is now. Every year, the Yankees convince their fans to just wait a little longer. The next great group of prospects, and this time they can't miss, are right there. The fans are told to be patient. Enough waiting.

Bring in the best closer and improve lineup now. In this imagined scenario, yes, I would make the trade. Absolutely. 100%. It's not even a question.

Let's also remember, this might be Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole's last best chance to win a World Series. Time is ticking!

Get the flag, worry about tomorrow, tomorrow. Other teams seem to find ways to move big contracts. Other teams do this all the time. The Yankees always seem stuck with which reflects poorly on how the Yankees operate. Small-thinking leads to small results.

The Yankees haven't won a World Series in a long time because they have been too worried about tomorrow and forgetting to take care of today.

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Tim Kabel - I would not make the trade if it included Manny Machado. The last thing the Yankees need is to be saddled with another huge contract for an aging and declining player. They would be stuck with Machado for seven years. The first year and a half would overlap with the time that they are stuck with Giancarlo Stanton. As much as I would like Mason Miller, I would pass on that trade.

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John Nielsen - Acquiring Mason Miller would be a genuine game-changer. He would immediately transform an already outstanding—if somewhat top-heavy—Yankees bullpen into a potential postseason juggernaut.

By handing the ninth inning to Miller, every other high-leverage reliever—David Bednar, Fernando Cruz, Brent Headrick, and Paul Blackburn—could shift back one role, dramatically improving the bullpen's depth and giving the Yankees one of the most formidable relief corps in baseball.

At just 27 years old, with four additional years of team control, Miller would be one of the most impactful and cost-effective pitchers—starter or reliever—the Yankees could realistically acquire. If that's the price of doing business, I would be willing to part with virtually any three- or even four-player package of prospects and young major leaguers the Padres would accept, with only George Lombard Jr. and Jasson Domínguez considered untouchable. That list could include Spencer Jones, Elmer Rodriguez, Carlos Lagrange, Dax Kilby, Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, Will Warren, or Ryan Weathers.

Pair Miller and a suddenly deep bullpen with what has been the best starting rotation in Major League Baseball in 2026—arguably one of the finest in Yankees history when healthy—and the organization would possess a pitching staff fully capable of carrying the club to a World Series championship.

Manny Machado, meanwhile, could certainly help the Yankees over the remainder of the 2026 season. Although his offensive production has declined from his MVP-caliber peak, he has still produced a respectable 102 OPS+ through the first two-thirds of the season. That represents a meaningful upgrade over Ryan McMahon's 79 OPS+. Machado also remains the superior defender. According to Statcast, he ranks in the 90th percentile in Range and the 74th percentile in Fielding Run Value, compared to McMahon's 79th percentile in Range and 54th percentile in Fielding Run Value.

The problem isn't Machado the player—it's Machado the contract.

Machado is owed $39.091 million annually through 2033, a financial commitment the Yankees simply cannot justify. Absorbing that contract would severely limit the payroll flexibility the organization needs going forward, while the production no longer justifies the expense. The deal has been underwater almost since the day it was signed, and now that Machado projects more as a 1–2 WAR player than the perennial MVP candidate he once was, committing seven more years at that salary—through his age-40 season—would represent an enormous and unnecessary financial burden.

If acquiring Mason Miller requires paying a premium in prospects, the Yankees should absolutely be willing to do so.

What they should not do is absorb Machado's current contract as part of the transaction.

Get the elite closer. Pass on the financial anchor.

The only exception would be if San Diego were willing to retain a substantial portion of Machado's remaining salary—at least $20 million annually—reducing the Yankees' long-term financial commitment to a level commensurate with his current on-field value.

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Derek McAdam - As intriguing of a deal as this may be, I’m not sure if I would take it, given Machado isn’t off the books until after the 2033 season. He has turned around his season some and could provide some much-needed power from the right side of the plate right now. But even if the Yankees could hold on to Lombard, this is too big of a risk. I would pass. 

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Cary Greene - The Yankees need to have a sense of urgency if they want to break through to the World Series and possibly topple the Dodgers. While Miller and Machado are both clear upgrades, as a package they're just not realistic.

I don't even think the two teams line up very well in a trade for Miller either, here's why. With the Padres presently sitting only 2 games back in the Wild Card, what's held them back all season is their ineffective starting pitching. Clearly, they'd want young, controllable starters with upside if they were going to give up the best closer in the game. 

From the Yankees perspective, trading for Miller hurts the Yankees ability to fix other issues - for sure, but replacing McMahon with Machado would be a fairly significant offensive upgrade.

Personally, I can't stand Machado. I've never liked him nor rooted for him. He's also owed a little under $8.7 million for this season, and then another $234.5 million over the remaining six years. In what reality would Hal Steinbrenner willingly take that contract on simply to gain about .100 OPS? If Preller insisted on dumping Machado and his full salary, there is zero chance the Yankees would be remotely interested.

Here's why the Padres and Yankees don't match up ideally in a trade for Miller: I doubt AJ Preller would view Will Warren as a starter who could spearhead a drive to this year's postseason, as Warren isn't exactly looking the part of a quality starter these days. Maybe though, the Padres would accept a package of Ryan Weathers, Elmer Rodriguez, Carlos Lagrange and Henry Lalane - as that's probably what it would take to get Miller. The Yankees would love to interest them in Warren but Preller knows better than to fall for that.

If the Padres wind up dangling Miller as a means of improving their rotation for a final postseason push, maybe instead of Lalane, they'd want Cashman to substitute Bednar, which would give the Padres an elite closer in place for their stretch run. A trade like this, sans Machado, gives the Padres a replacement for Miller, a starter that can help right now in Weathers and two nearly ready chips that could both become good starters. I don't know how many GMs are high on Rodriguez - I'm personally not, but it's hard to turn a nose up at Lagrange at this point in his development. All this said, I wouldn't pay the price required to land Miller and the idea of the Yankees taking on Machado's contract isn't realistic.

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