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The Tuesday Discussion: The 2024 Standings

Writer's picture: SSTN AdminSSTN Admin

March 5, 2024

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This week we asked our writers to respond to the following:

How do you see the American League East race going in 2024?  List the teams in the order they'll finish this year.

Here are their replies:

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Lincoln Mitchell - I see the AL East being extremely competitive this year. There are five good to very good teams, no bad teams and no truly great teams. I would not be surprised if the best team in the division wins ten or fewer games more than the worst team. With that in mind, here is my division ranking. I put my confidence level here at around 30%. 1) Orioles 2) Rays 3) Yankees 4) Blue Jays 5) Red Sox.

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Ethan Semendinger - Let me start with the easiest two predict two spots in the AL East this year: 4th and 5th place. Respectively, it will be the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox. In short, the Blue Jays are like the New York Jets: flashy, lots of hype, but never play up to the talent. Meanwhile, the Red Sox don't have any talent.


In 3rd we will have the Tampa Bay Rays. They are the opposite of the Blue Jays. They are the perpetual underdogs and they will fight like anything to win. That's why they'll win a bunch.


And then, shockingly, you'll have the Baltimore Orioles in 2nd. They are where the Yankees were a few years ago with plenty of young talent who showed a lot last year. But, now that they are all becoming stars in the sport, will they have the discipline to continue to play well? The human psychology is a fickle monster to fight, and young teams who showed promise often fail on the first attempt back. (See: The New Jersey Devils.)


And, finally, you have your New York Yankees. Who will win the AL East, for the first time since...well, 2022. (But, it feels like a long time ago! I need the regular season to start.) They have good, disciplined talent. And, I do believe that they will address the pitching soon. Snell and Montgomery are going to be too tempting too soon to not do anything.

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Mike Whiteman - I see the Yankees coming out on top of the AL East by a hair over Baltimore. The O's are going to be a good team for a long time, but ascension to being elite isn't always a straight line. I think they will regress just a bit in 2024. My predicted finish:


Yankees 

Orioles

Blue Jays

Rays

Red Sox

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Paul Semendinger - Okay, sit down for this.


I'm sure this will surprise people.


I see the A.L. East ending the following way:


Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees


Ok. I had to have some fun...


Now, turn that list upside down. The Yankees will win the A.L. East. I see the Orioles regressing. I don't think the Blue Jays can sustain anything. The Rays just won't be that good. And the Red Sox aren't good at all.


This should be the Yankees' year. If they had Yamamoto and Bellinger and Soto and... maybe they would have gone 162-0. But, they're still the best team in the division. 2024 promises to be an exciting and fun year to be a Yankees fan.

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Cary Greene - I always start by looking at the PECOTA and FanGraphs projections before I make my yearly guess as to not only how the American League East final standings will play out. I also keep close tabs on all contenders as I try to predict which teams have the best chances of winning a World Series. Admittedly, a lot can change during the course of a grueling 162-game MLB season, but here we are in early March, lobbing our best guesses out there for our dear reader's amusement. 


Beginning with FanGraphs, they think the AL East will be tightly contested this season, this respected site has the Yankees tallying 89 wins along the way to winning the Division by a narrow three games over the Rays, with the Orioles four games back and in third place and they pick the Blue Jays to finish five games behind, while the Red Sox are forecasted to languish in last place, sitting eight games out. FanGraphs uses runs scored and runs allowed approach to their projections and they project the Yankees as scoring 4.96 runs per game this season, while allowing 4.48 per game. 


Now on to PECOTA, they think the Yankees will win 94.3 games, while winning the Division comfortably by five games over the Blue Jays with the Rays six games behind, followed by the Orioles seven games out and they have the Red Sox bringing up the rear, 15 games behind the Yankees. 


I'll lead with this - I don't think either projection service is accurate regarding how the American League's Eastern Division will shake out this season. I think the Orioles are going to be the class of the division and I think they'll win 98 to 105 games. I also think that the Rays, the Jays and the Yankees are all possible playoff teams. MLB's new Divisional scheduling format calls for fewer interdivisional games again this season, so I actually think a big factor will center around how each team's strength of schedule winds up shaking out - so how exactly does THAT work?


Well, starting last season, MLB teams will play only 13 games against the four other teams in their own Divisions (52 games in all). This is down from the 18 Divisional games that each team played. They also play six or seven games against each of other ten teams in their own league (64 games) and four games against one "geographic rival" from the other league. Finally, the schedule is rounded out with each team playing three games each against the other fourteen teams in the other league (46 games). 


Ultimately, there will be less "cannibalism" in each Division, as the bulk of a team's schedule calls for opponents who play outside of each team's divisions. My feelings on how the American League's Eastern Division will shake out this year have a lot to do with not only what it says on the backs of each team's player's baseball cards, but as usual - I look at pitching as being the great differentiator. With the overall health of each team's pitching staff, especially in the starting rotation, being the most important single factor. Last season, the Yankees had five starters miss a cumulative 674 days and this cost the Yankees $29.9 million in payroll. While Luis Severino and Frankie Montas have both been shown the door, the Yankees still have injury concerns in their starting rotation, with both Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes, but I think the results might be a bit better this season so I'm going out on a limb with my prediction. 


Qualifying for the 2024 postseason, the New York Yankees will win 97 games during the 2024 season, as they will be anchored by a starting rotation that performs notably better than last season's rotation. The Blue Jays will win 96 games and finish third, with the Rays winning 91 games to finish fourth. Oh <snickering> and the Red Sox will finish fifth, winning only 82 games. 

8 comments

8 Comments


Unknown member
Dec 17, 2024
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Kennedy Ira
Kennedy Ira
Jun 27, 2024

This is a really fascinating piece from ESPN that examines the impact that injuries have on different teams, specifically looking at the amount of time spent on injured leave and the subsequent loss of wins above replacement. baldi's basics

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Jeff Korell
Jeff Korell
Mar 06, 2024

The Yankees will finish in FIRST because their starting pitching staff is far better than the Orioles, even WITH their addition of Corbin Burnes. Assuming that Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are returning to the form that has made them successful in the recent past since their injuries are presently behind them, plus what Marcus Stroman brings to the starting rotation, plus the even further improvement we have seen this spring from Clark Schmidt, when you compare the Yankees "Starting 5" to the Orioles "Starting 5", the Yankees starting rotation is far superior. Especially when you take away the two aces (Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes) and just focus on the other 4 in each starting rotation. Especially also t…


Edited
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Melfman1
Melfman1
Mar 05, 2024

With health, I think the Yankees can beat the Orioles for first in the division. For all the talk this offseason regarding the Yankee rotation, they’ve looked pretty strong this Spring. I also like some of the depth brought in to replace the arms lost to San Diego & Boston. If I had to guess, I’d say 95 wins for NY and 93 for Baltimore.


Third and fourth place should be a combination of Toronto & Tampa both in the mid-80’s. Boston (especially after the news about Giolito’s injury) should be firmly settled in the basement. They could struggle to stay over .500 in my opinion.

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Robert Malchman
Robert Malchman
Mar 05, 2024

Very interesting ESPN article on the effect of injuries on various teams, looking at IL time and the resulting loss of WAR. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/39631841/mlb-injury-index-teams-il-how-much-injuries-hurt-yankees The Yankees were No. 1 on the list in 2023.

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