March 12, 2024
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This week we asked our writers to respond to the following:
Many predict that the Yankees will be a playoff team in 2024. In your opinion, what is the team's biggest weakness?
NOTE - We often work days in advance here at SSTN. We sent this question out over the weekend, prior to the Gerrit Cole MRI news of yesterday so many of the responses do not cover that news.
Here are the thoughts of our writers:
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James Vlietstra - I still question the starting rotation. They traded away sooo much of their depth so that if they have injuries they will be dependent on players who have not yet pitched in the MLB.
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Ed Botti - The team's biggest weakness of 2024 is the starting pitching (sans Gerrit Cole). Much of the potential success of the staff is weighted heavily on the shoulders of Carlos Rodon. If Rodon (somehow) finds his 2021 and 2022 success and starts 25 or more times (he only started 24 in 2022 --I am rounding up) vs his average over the remaining 7 years of his career (15 starts) and can somehow pitch to an ERA under 4.48 (his average in the same 7 years) it would make a very large difference. Of course, that is asking a great deal from the $162mm man. Throw into the mix that Nestor Cortes is coming off shoulder injury, Marcus Stroman has failed to reach 140 innings in 4 of his last 6 seasons, and the purging of 10 pitchers this offseason-- you end up with a weak rotation. In 2023 they used 11 starters and most of those extra starters are all gone. Who picks up the slack and what their level of success will be is critical, and unfortunately a big huge unknown as of today.
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Lincoln Mitchell - The easy answer to this question is to say pitching. That is almost the default answer. for any baseball team in any year, but it is not always true. My sense is that the biggest weakness of this Yankees team is that the lineup is too short. If Stanton, LeMahieu and Rizzo all come back and if Volpe improves, this would be a great lineup, but there is no real reason to think those things will happen. At least two of those players need to be impact players at the plate, with an OPS+ of 120 or more or else the Yankees are not going to score enough runs.
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Paul Semendinger - I am concerned that Anthony Rizzo and D.J. LeMahieu are the answers at the corners of the infield. Both are older. Both have regressed. There isn't a viable back-up for either guy. (In fact, DJ is the back-up for Rizzo.) Neither has reached even 140 games played in either of the last two seasons. This is not a good plan. This was not a good design.
Also, and I know so many disagree with me on this, but asking Aaron Judge to play centerfield, to me, is a fool's errand. If he wears down, or gets hurt, and let's remember, his toe isn't 100% - and probably never will be - the Yankees' season could turn into a disaster very quickly. This simply isn't a risk the Yankees should be taking.
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Tim Kabel - In my opinion, the biggest weakness for the Yankees in 2024, is the fact that they are relying on a trio of veterans to have major comebacks this season. DJ, LeMahieu, Anthony, Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton are all being counted on to to provide a lot of offensive fire power. Due to their injuries, age, and deterioration, I don’t know if they are capable of that. If it were just one player, it wouldn’t be such a big issue but, it is three players.
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Patrick Gunn - Pitching depth is where the Yankees' feel like they need help. I think their first line is incredibly talented, but the Bombers have seemingly fewer proven options internally to fill-in if a starter gets hurt. New York always seems to find good relievers out of nowhere and there are still some talented arms in the minors, but they still need to find someone to fill Michael King's role from last season, as well as Tommy Kahnle's back-end role. I think the Yankees will find a way on the pitching side - and I do think Cortes or Rodón will pitch better than last season - but I have questions about their depth.
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Mike Whiteman - I think the Yanks' main weakness is starting to show itself - pitching depth. If Gerrit Cole is out for an extended period of time, who becomes the #5 starter? Cody Poteet has thrown five innings this spring. Luke Weaver has a stiff neck and will miss his scheduled start today. Will Warren looks like a good prospect with potential, but has not started a regular season game at the MLB level.
Back in 2022, the Yankee rotation was relatively healthy, and even then the team started eleven different pitchers. What does eleven-deep look like for the 2024 team?
Keep our fingers crossed!
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Cary Greene - I think the team's biggest weakness is that the Yankees lack a leadoff hitter who can combine a high OBP with great base running ability - someone who goes first to third or runs from second to home on singles and who steals bases at a high clip without getting caught too much. Someone who is too fast to get doubled up and someone who can consistently pressure the opposing pitcher into hurrying and making mistakes. A big weakness of the Yankees in the postseason is that they can't eek out runs and if a legitimate leadoff man was brought in to be part of the equation, I think the Yankees offense would become more dangerous.
With the group of starters the Yankees have, it's possible that one of Stroman, Cole or Rodon can become a force behind Gerrit Cole and be part of the tip of the spear in a postseason run. But I'm not in love with the combination of LeMahieu and Verdugo acting as leadoff hitters. Yes, they'll suffice for now and hopefully, Trent Grisham can play amazingly well and who knows, he could bat anywhere from leadoff (if his OBP is high enough) to ninth depending. Anthony Volpe is another player to keep an eye on also, he may help in similar fashion, either batting ninth or at some point - who knows? He might be the team's leadoff hitter in the second half.
It's probably more likely that Grisham and Volpe are better suited to bat eighth or ninth this season and quite honestly, Verdugo and LeMahieu are probably better off batting seventh rather than being relied on as leadoff hitters on a what Cashman hopes will be a World Series winning team. Therefore, I think the Yankees lineup will have the usual critical flaw, a byproduct of standing around on the bases waiting for home runs, often becoming part of a double play that a slow, lumbering slugger often hits into.
It's this writer's opinion however that Cashman should have been aggressive and put a deal together for a true leadoff man, which is something he's failed to address for years on end now.
Players Cashman could have targeted and may still yet hone in on - in what would have reflected a 2024 World Series or bust mentality that would have prioritized lineup construction in an effort not to squander prime Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole and Juan Soto - are Christian Yelich (Brewers), Nico Hoerner (Cubs) or TJ Friedl (Reds).
Taking on Yelich's contract this offseason would have meant that Cashman would have had to shed some payroll and be creative for a player who is a great fit for the Yankees lineup - trading for Yelich would have negated the need for Alex Verdugo also - since both Yelich and Dugy represent short term, win in 2024 plays. I thought a trade that made a ton of sense would have been to target Corbin Burnes and Yelich, but that ship has sailed. Could Cashman still target Yelich if the Brewers fade? I don't think so, not now, I don't think he fits into Ha's budget at this point.
Trading with the Cubs for Neico Hoerner may still be an option at the Deadline. If Chicago becomes desperate for offensive help, moving Gleyber Torres and a few prospects for Hoerner, or trading a young outfielder and pitcher are both within the realm of possibility. Hoerner is a good defensive player who can play all over the infield, he gets on base (.346 OBP) and he wreaks havoc (9.7 BsR last season, second best in MLB). Hoerner would slot in as a true leadoff man in the Yankees lineup.
Acquiring TJ Friedl from the Reds at the Deadline is an even more realistic move. Due to his strong OBP (.352 last season) and his outstanding ability on the bases 9.1 BsR, the left-hand hitting Friedl could be an answer in center field for the Yankees, one who would obviously upgrade the top of the lineup.
I truly believe if you put a high OBP player who is an excellent base runner at the top of the Yankees lineup, the results would be pretty amazing.
