By E.J. Fagan
September 3, 2023
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells have arrived on the major league team, joining Anthony Volpe, Ben Rortvedt, Everson Pereira and Oswald Peraza. It took the Yankees a month or two longer than it should have, but the kids have arrived.
What’s next? I can say with a lot of confidence that all six players are not going to be starters on the 2024 roster. Most prospects don’t work out. One month of baseball isn’t a ton of time to evaluate a player, but it’s enough time to learn a lot about a hitter once they make the majors. Especially when the Yankees are committed to giving them regular playing time.
I have some brief takes on the group for the last month of the season:
Anthony Volpe is a Major League Player
It’s clear that something changed for Volpe after the Chicken Parm Session. He’s hitting a strong .249/.329/.460 since June 13th. Even without cutting up his season, his full stats aren’t that bad right now. Fangraphs has him at 2 WAR, good for 12th best among MLB shortstops. Baseball Reference loves his defense a little more than it should, putting him well above 3 WAR.
Even if Volpe doesn’t improve or replicate his post-parm numbers, he belongs at shortstop in the major leagues. The remaining question for him is where in the batting order should we expect him to settle into. If it’s post-parm Volpe (or better), the Yankees can rely on him to bat first or second during the 2024 season. They don’t need to go out of their way to acquire another strong hitter. If it’s full-season Volpe, then he’s more of a Didi Gregorius type: probably not going to carry a team, even if he runs into a home run every once in awhile.
I’m optimistic that post-parm Volpe is the real Volpe, but it would be nice to see him get hot at the end of the season. I’m sure that I’ll do a deep dive in October.
Oswald Peraza and Ben Rortvedt Are on the Hot Seat
Peraza and Rortvedt are going to finish the season with a healthy portfolio of career plate appearances. Both have about 150 career plate appearances, and should get plenty more in September. Peraza has a .578 OPS. Rortvedt has a .497 OPS. While both are defensive standouts, they aren’t really all that close to justifying their presence on a major league roster.
To up the pressure, both players have hit well in multiple Triple-A seasons. Unlike some other prospects, they are now in do-or-die time for their potential Yankee careers. If they have a strong September, both will probably figure into their 2024 plans. If they continue their anemic hitting, or are just lackluster, both will be optioned back to Triple-A, while the Yankees go in search of replacements.
In particular, I think Peraza is playing for a trade. It’s fine to play him at 3rd base for now, but Peraza is a shortstop. In another universe, we might be talking about moving Volpe to second and playing Peraza at short. But Volpe has proven to be a strong defensive shortstop and capable hitter. Peraza could still be a good trade piece with a strong September. A lot of so-so hitters have long major league careers when they can play defense up the middle like he can.
Pereira Feels Good, Even if the Numbers Are Bad
Pereira just looks like a normal major league player. His build, swing and defense feel right. That’s something that I can’t say for pretty much every other Yankee prospect in recent memory, all of whom seemed weird in some way. Volpe is tiny for a power hitter. Frazier had an unusual swing. Jasson Dominguez is a freak of nature. Pereira just looks like a major league baseball player.
One of my complaints about Brian Cashman’s regime has been an inability to develop average major league players. The Yankees need stars, but to afford the blue chips they need to a few guys to play like Austin Hayes, Alex Verdugo or Jake Burger to fill out the roster. Pereira looks a lot like one of those players right now.
Of course, he’s so far not performed like one. It’s probably a little early to make judgements, but Pereira needs to start hitting soon. I don’t think he’s quite in do-or-die time for his career, but the Yankees can’t bet on Pereira holding down left field in 2024 if he doesn’t hit pretty well in September.
Jasson Dominguez is an Enigma
I have no idea what to expect from Jasson Dominguez. He’s a weird player, perfectly contrasting with Pereira. I can’t recall a star hitter who is simultaneously athletic, heavyweight and this short. My instinct is that a short player with a powerful, quick swing has pretty crazy potential. He doesn’t quite have Jose Altuve’s 5’6” strike zone, but he also has about 50 pounds on him.
How will he do? Dominguez has been the hottest hitter in baseball. He’s at .394/.455/.626 over his last month. He stole 39 bases. He’s striking out just 18% of the time since the All Star Break. His slow start is a faint memory right now, just like his slow start in the 2022 season.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Dominguez hit .150 in September. I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes full Sanchez 2016 and hits .300 with 10 home runs. The smart money is on a slow start, since he’s always started slow after a promotion. But I hate betting against talent. I said last year that he was the most underrated player on top-100 lists. He’s going to be even more underrated this year.
Austin Wells is a Tier Below Everyone Else
I don’t really get the Austin Wells call up. Frankly, I don’t really understand why he was promoted from Double-A to Triple-A. Wells was barely an above average hitter at Double-A. He was a slightly below average hitter at Triple-A. On top of that, Wells is a poor defensive catcher. Opinions differ on whether he’s a Gary Sanchez or Kyle Schwarber poor defender, but no one thinks that Wells is secretly hiding defensive chops that are suddenly going to look good.
I hope that the Yankees accept reality at some point soon and try to convert Wells to another position. Catching is tough on players. If he can train for and concentrate on hitting, Wells might be a solid major league hitter. For now, I’m not even sure he’s that. Wells was going to have to be added to the 40-man roster before the Rule V draft, so there isn’t a huge downside in calling him up. That said, I’m a little surprised they brought him to the major before the end of the Triple-A playoffs.
What’s Next?
All eyes are on 2024. The Yankees absolutely have the personnel to build a roster that can compete for a playoff spot. But they may face a tradeoff between playing the rookies and finding more reliable wins via free agency. I hope they pick the rookie route until they have a firm base of major league players to supplement with 2025 and 2026’s free agent classes.
If three or four of the 2023 crew look promising, the Yankees might just decide to try and compete with their mix of veterans and rookies. If only one or two do, they might have to make some hard decisions about whether or not to sell veterans or supplement the roster with free agents.
There is another wave of prospects coming up. Drew Thorpe, Ben Rice, Chase Hampton, Spencer Jones, Trey Sweeney and Tyler Hardman will take the place of 2023’s class of players. Prospecting is a numbers game, and the Yankees need to give as many guys a chance to succeed as possible. I hope it doesn’t take a cataclysmic season to force Brian Cashman to call them up.
For now, I can’t wait to see the first lineup with Volpe at short, Pereira in left, Dominguez in center, Peraza at 3rd, Rortvedt catching and Wells at designated hitter. Maybe even throw in Cabrera somewhere. Maybe we’ll remember the 2023 season the same way we remember the 2016 season.
