top of page
file.jpg
  • Writer's pictureSSTN Admin

Tuesday Discussion: Are They For Real?

April 18, 2023

***

This week we asked out writers to respond to the following:


The Yankees are on pace for 100 victories! Are they for real? Is this just a hot start before they come back to Earth, or is this the beginnings of something great?


Here are their replies:

***

Lincoln Mitchell - I don’t see this Yankees team as a 100 win team, but that does not mean they are not for real. Going into this season, the Yankees seemed like a team that had a good chance of making the playoffs and decent, but less than fifty percent chance of getting a first round bye. From what I have seen this season, that is still what they are.


***

Mike Whiteman - To discern if the Yankees are for real, I took a look at the team's top twelve players per baseball-reference.com WAR. The top players are generally who we thought they would be. Aside from Gerrit Cole's unworldly pitching and maybe Franchy Cordero's hot start, there's really not anyone playing way over their heads. So, the players who we thought would lead the team are doing just that. So I say they are for "real."


Alas, it's once again evident that like 2022, health will be the X-factor with this team. This year's free agent prize Carlos Rodon has yet to throw a 2023 pitch. Neither has Luis Severino. Harrison Bader is just now rounding into full health. Giancarlo Stanton has made his annual trip to the IL. We're already holding our breath about DJ LeMahieu. There's real talent on this team. The question in the end is will they have to rely too much on guys like Franchy Cordero, or Willie Calhoun, or Josh Donaldson? Will they need to lean on Anthony Volpe more than desired in his rookie season? Will the team designed by the Yankee brain trust be on the field in October?


***

James Vlietstra - The Yankees over/ under on the season was 94.5 according to Vegas Insider. I took the Over. So I am not surprised by their current pace of play. In my opinion this team compares favorably to the 2022 version that won 99. Combined with playing less games against the competitive American League East and they are destined for an easy playoff berth. A special season will be accomplished once they are victorious in the ALCS and return to the World Series for just the second time in 20 years.


***

Ed Botti - As we were reminded by 2022 after their torrid first half, it’s a long season.

Are they for real? As of today April 18 at the 1/10th point of the season they stand at 10-6, which extrapolates to 101 victories. Which is an excellent start.

They have done so without 3/5ths of their rotation healthy, their starting centerfielder injured, as well as other material injuries to their third baseman, DH, and bullpen. Based on the construction of the roster along with some of the injuries, I do not see this as a 100+ win team.

I see them winning 92 or so games, which means it is a hot start and that will see them come back to earth.


***

Paul Semendinger - I want to believe in this team. It seems many do. I'm not ready to buy in yet. I'm not ready to give my heart to the 2023 Yankees only to have them break it. They have looked very good so far. Or, Gerrit Cole has looked very good. Take away his four brilliant wins and the Yankees are 6-6. Sure a number of injured players will come back, soon, they say. (Of course, we now learned that Stanton is out for at least a month - funny how that goes - it's most often worse then they initially say...) When the players return from injuries, it should make the Yankees better. It should. It might. I hope it does. Nonetheless, I see team as one that will fall back to earth a bit, meaning they'll be a slightly better than .500 team. Gerrit Cole isn't going 27-0 this year. I almost feel, though, that they need him to. Call me a doubter. I might doubt until the last out of the World Series (should the Yankees win it). As I say often, I hope I'm wrong and the Yankees just keep on winning and reach 100 (or more) wins and continue it through the post season.


***

Tamar Chalker - I think it’s absolutely possible. This team has a lot of potential and it is too early to believe they won’t live up to it.


***

Tim Kabel - I believe the Yankees will win at least 100 games. That was my prediction all along. After all, they won 99 games last year. It’s not unreasonable to believe that they are at least one game better than they were last year. My overriding concern is that Boone cannot guide them to a championship. He has demonstrated that he is capable of guiding them to a 100 win season. I firmly believe that will happen this year.


***

Cary Greene - I think MLB is trying to convince us that regular season games really matter a lot. The truth is, they just don't. Will the Yankees display high sense of urgency and try really hard to win five or 10 games more than they might have otherwise done? I don't think so. Not based on what I've seen out of Cashman's Yankees. It seems like being healthy is something that the team talks about a lot, but, when the playoffs start, the Yankees haven't been very healthy overall, at least in recent memory. Based on how easy the schedule is overall, I don't think much stands in the way of the Yankees winning at least 95 to 100 games and I don't think they'll really have to work all that hard to do it. I also think that will be good enough. I think that's exactly what the Yankees leadership feels is sufficient. The Yankees want to be good enough. Good enough to what? What exactly are the Yankees trying to do? Are they trying to win 100 games? I doubt it. Are they trying to qualify for the the playoffs? Yes. I think that's the goal. This theme has been written about often over the last several years here on SSTN.. It seems like that's mainly the only goal of Cashman's Yankees - to make the playoffs.. Winning 95 or 100 games these days really doesn't mean much. Not against the competition that the League offers.. All it means is you get that first round cushion. The all important playoffs bye. What I'm saying is that the Yankees could easily win 95 to 100 games. It's not because the Yankees are all that great. It's just that the league is that bad overall. More than half of the teams that the Yankees play are pretty much terrible. Suffice it to say I'm not that enthused about whatever the Yankees regular season record is. Like many old school Yankee fans, I judge success based on winning World Series, so I don't really care where the team winds up in the regular season. In 2023, I'm hoping that this year's Yankees team can take the hill and if they can't get it done yet again, then the championship drought moves into a phase that will forever record the "good enough" legacy that Hal Steinbrenner is presently painting. It sure would be nice if the Yankees focused on winning a World Series, rather than primarily focusing on being good enough to make the playoffs. So forgive me if I'm not focused on how many games the Yankees win in the regular season. For me, whatever the answer is to that question, it's not good enough.




8 Yorum


jjw49
18 Nis 2023

In the playoffs its all about the pitching….. so I’m skeptical right now…. other than Cole and Cortez it’s sketchy and the closer by committee is dangerous and generally doesn’t work/ Yankees should get between 90-100 this year but how far they go in playoffs? ….. we have all seen this movie before!

Beğen

Robert Malchman
Robert Malchman
18 Nis 2023

Get back to me on the evening of May 14, after they finish playing 7 games against the Rays in 11 days. That will tell us how good this team is. As of now, they could win anywhere from 95-105 games. We don't know how good they will be until (if) Rodon and Sevy come back. Indeed, at 10-6, they are underperforming their pythagorean projection by a game. Do they under-perform and disappoint like last year? Or do they turn it on and achieve what they should (or better)? Ask me tea time May 14.

Beğen
Robert Malchman
Robert Malchman
18 Nis 2023
Şu kişiye cevap veriliyor:

Afternoon tea. Game with 1:30 start should be over comfortably before then.

Beğen

yankeerudy
18 Nis 2023

I see two big issues.


First, the bottom of the order is too soft, such that if a couple of the big boys get cold the team is in trouble offensively. Second, the back of the bullpen is also too soft. We lack lock-down options for primary setup and closer. Can someone step up and fill those roles? That remains to be seen.

Beğen

yankeesblog
18 Nis 2023

I'm in the 90-95 wins camp. Could they win 100+ games. It wouldn't shock me but I think it depends on a LOT of things going right and very few things going wrong. So far the team is not off to the best start in that department The strategy of "just make the playoffs" is a dangerous one. Those best of 3 WC series are things you want to avoid if you can. It also devalues the regular season to a point where its not worth spending what we need to spend to watch the games. I was not in favor of expanded playoffs. I thought the post-season was too long as it was.

Beğen

cpogo0502
18 Nis 2023

I think it's way too early to predict the number of wins. More importantly, I lack confidence in their ability to beat the best teams in baseball on the way to winning a championship. I've said this many times, while I feel there is talent there, the team lacks the balance necessary to beat the best teams. Too many strikeouts, too many men left on base, too many unproductive outs, too many injuries. These are the same problems we've seen over the last few seasons because the players are virtually the same. I'm sure they will make the playoffs because of the strength of schedule but what happens when they have to get through Houston to get to the Series?

Beğen
dr sem.png

Start Spreading the News is the place for some of the very best analysis and insight focusing primarily on the New York Yankees.

(Please note that we are not affiliated with the Yankees and that the news, perspectives, and ideas are entirely our own.)

blog+image+2.jpeg

Have a question for the Weekly Mailbag?

Click below or e-mail:

SSTNReaderMail@gmail.com

SSTN is proudly affiliated with Wilson Sporting Goods! Check out our press release here, and support us by using the affiliate links below:

587611.jpg
583250.jpg
Scattering the Ashes.jpeg

"Scattering The Ashes has all the feels. Paul Russell Semendinger's debut novel taps into every emotion. You'll laugh. You'll cry. You'll reexamine those relationships that give your life meaning." — Don Burke, writer at The New York Post

The Least Among Them.png

"This charming and meticulously researched book will remind you of baseball’s power to change and enrich lives far beyond the diamond."

—Jonathan Eig, New York Times best-selling author of Luckiest Man, Opening Day, and Ali: A Life

From Compton to the Bronx.jpg

"A young man from Compton rises to the highest levels of baseball greatness.

Considered one of the classiest baseball players ever, this is Roy White's story, but it's also the story of a unique period in baseball history when the Yankees fell from grace and regained glory and the country dealt with societal changes in many ways."

foco-yankees.png

We are excited to announce our new sponsorship with FOCO for all officially licensed goods!

FOCO Featured:
carlos rodon bobblehead foco.jpg
bottom of page