By Patrick Gunn
December 17, 2023
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The Yankees have been active in the starting pitching market during free agency. Okay, they’ve been actively tied to Yoshinobu Yamamoto - a generational pitcher about to get paid deservingly. He could change the Yankees rotation in an instant. But the Bombers need more than two aces to win a title. Namely, two former All-Star southpaws are already under contract and are crucial to any hopes of the Bombers regaining form.
Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes Jr. had brutal 2023 seasons. And yes, injuries were a factor: Rodón only made 14 starts, and Cortes just 12. When they pitched, Rodón and Cortes looked little like their normal selves:
Rodón in 2021 & 2022 vs. 2023:
2021 & 2022 | 2023 | |
ERA | 2.67 | 6.85 |
FIP | 2.42 | 5.79 |
K% | 33.9 | 22.4 |
BB% | 7.1 | 9.8 |
Avg. Exit Velocity | 89.2 & 89.0 | 91.6 |
Home Run% | 2.0 | 5.2 |
Rodón’s drastic drop in strikeout rate, coupled with the rising barrel rate (12.2% in 2023; 6.5% in 2021, and 6.6% in 2022), also coupled with more walks hurt his first season in NYC. Not to mention that hitters torched his fastball (.283 xBA, .548 xSLG). Aside from helping him locate his fastball better and get more whiffs, the Yankees need to help Rodón drop his flyball rate. Yes, Rodón has always been a flyball pitcher - at least 44% of all contact against him has been flyballs in every season since 2020, per FanGraphs. That number jumped to 52.7% last year, easily a career-high. And Yankees Stadium is a tough place to survive as a flyball pitcher. Rodón could help himself out immensely if he lowers the flyballs even by five percent - along with striking out more batters. Better health could be a part of that; part of the reason why his 2022 was so excellent was that he could make 31 starts. Yes, pitching in San Francisco helped, but even his road numbers from 2022 - 3.73 ERA, 31 K%, 7.0 BB% - would be a drastic step forward from 2023.
Cortes in 2021 & 2022 vs. 2023:
2021& 2022 | 2023 | |
ERA | 2.61 | 4.97 |
FIP | 3.17 | 4.49 |
K% | 26.9 | 25.2 |
BB% | 6.4 | 7.5 |
Avg. Exit Velocity | 89.0 & 87.9 | 89.6 |
Home Run% | 3.0 | 4.0 |
Cortes’ non-ERA/FIP statistics don’t paint as much of a shift as Rodón’s. In fact, MLB Statcast data shows Cortes as having a 3.66 xERA; his xSLG was just .390, xwOBA .296. Yet, his hard-hit rate jumped above 40% (41.5%) for the first time in his career in the Majors. A big reason why - He did not get the job done with his cutter. His second most used pitch (28.7% of the time), batters hit 6 home runs off the pitch to a tune of a .545 xSLG. In 2022, Cortes only gave up 7 homers on the pitch in a longer season with just a .354 xSLG.
Cortes did share one trait with Rodón: a big jump in flyball rate. He saw about a 10% jump in flyball rate, with 57.1% batted balls going in the air, up from 47.3% in 2022. His home run percentage did not take much of a jump, but Cortes did see a higher home run per 9 rate (0.9 HR/9 in 2022 vs. 1.5 HR/9 in 2023). That is a concerning number for a pitcher who thrives on soft contact and location. Regardless, I feel like there is a patch forward for Cortes. His strikeout and walk numbers stayed intact and Statcast data suggests he may have underachieved. It did not help that he dealt with injuries all year, starting in Spring Training and then again early in the summer.
Injuries are probably the key word to look at with both Rodón and Cortes. Both missed time in Spring Training - Rodón made his Yankees debut in July. Maybe most of these downward trends can be attributed to their struggles just to stay on the field. For that reason, I think we should give them a chance to rebound in 2024.
And they should get some grace because the Yankees’ rotation needs them both. The Yankees have traded away much of their young pitching depth over the last two seasons. Not to mention the Yankees’ regular season and postseason ceiling rises immensely when they perform. A top-four Yankees Rotation including Gerrit Cole, Rodón, and Cortes could resemble what the Phillies’ have done over the last two playoffs. The Yankees took a risk signing Rodón because of his potential, and Cortes became an overnight sensation because he’s dominated. The Yankees need to help both of these southpaws rediscover their form to return to the World Series.
