What Can We REALLY Expect from Gerrit Cole?
- Mike Whiteman
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
By Mike Whiteman January 5, 2026 Happy New Year everyone!
There's much consternation about the Yankees' lack of meaningful additions to this offseason while their rivals in the American League East are active. Is Hal Steinbrenner holding the line on payroll? Is Brian Cashman working behind the scenes on a big deal that improves the team? Is the Yankee brain trust satisfied with the team as is (remember Aaron Boone called last year's team the best he managed)? Even if they do stand pat this winter, are the Yankees deserving of the criticism of the fans? I mean, they look to be on pace to add a former Cy Young Award winner to a rotation that was surprisingly solid in 2025. Who you say? Gerrit Cole of course.
Yes, it's a bit of a trick question and answer. Cole was 2023 American League Cy Young award winner. He was 8-5, 3.41 in an injury-shortened 2024, and missed the complete 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery and recovery. It looks like at this point the forecast that Cole will return in May/June.
We all know the recovery from TJS isn't always a straight line. I thought I'd take a look back about ten years to other Cy Young winners who had the procedure after winning the award.
Sandy Alcantara - 2022 NL Cy Young winner, 2023 TJS, missed the 2024 season.
Return (2025): 11-12, 5.36, 175 IP, 82 ERA+, second half: 7-3, 3.33.
Corbin Burnes - 2021 NL Cy Young Award Winner, 2025 TJS, missed most 2025
Return: To be determined.
Robbie Ray - 2021 AL Cy Young Award Winner, 2023 TJS, missed most of 2023 and 2024 seasons.
Return (2025): 11-8, 3.65, 183 IP, NL All-Star
Shane Bieber - 2020 AL Cy Yong winner, 2024 TJS, missed most of 2024 and 2025
Return (2025): 4-2, 3.57, first start in August.
Justin Verlander - 2019 AL Cy Young Winner, 2020 TJS, missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 seasons
Return (2022): 18-4, 1.75, AL Cy Young winner.
Jacob DeGrom - 2018 and 2019 NL Cy Young Winner, TJS 2023, missed most of 2023 and 2024 seasons
Return (2025): 12-8, 2.97, 123 ERA+, American League All-Star
Does any of this prove anything? Two thoughts:
1. Real good pitchers pre-TJS usually come back and pitch well.
2. The timeline of return can vary.
So, having confidence that Gerrit Cole will come back as a quality pitcher certainly isn't misguided. Counting on him to rescue the 2026 Yankees may well be.
Mike, excellent article!
Your article last summer on Yankee starters was one of the best of the year.
It would appear the longer the time a pitcher has from surgery the better his chances for being effective.... if they rush him or he rushes himself.... not ideal!
It's a tall order, but possible. Just another "if" on this roster. I'm hoping he learned how to cover 1st base over the last year.
I'm of the belief that if Clarke Schmidt makes it back in 2026, he will be a reliever. If he comes back as a Starter, something is VERY, VERY, VERY wrong with the Yankees rotation, including all the prospects falling flat on their faces.
As long as Rodon does not get into a Spring Training game , he will be fine, even if he only has 26-27 GS next to his name.
As for Cole, I'm expecting him back before he is completely ready, but will have a piggyback guy to tag-team with him for the first 7-8 innings of the game. I believe that piggyback guy will be Luis Gil as of right now. I believe he will …
Nice work Mike.
I am of the camp that counting on Cole and Rodon and Schmidt to all bounce back and be top pitchers, or even above average, is asking for or expecting a lot.
Time will tell.
This was a very good analysis.