What If The Yankees Traded...?

What if the Yankees Had Traded...?

By Cary Greene

September 1, 2026

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Sometimes, the best moves a team can make turn out to be the ones they didn’t make. For example, the Yankees desperately needed an outfielder at the 2021 Trade Deadline. Brian Cashman agreed to give up Ezequiel Duran, Josh Smith, Trevor Hauver and Glenn Otto.

Gallo struggled to meet expectations during his time in New York, batting just .159 with 12 home runs in 82 games in 2022 before being traded to the Dodgers for Clayton Beeter, who they ultimately flipped at the 2025 Deadline for Amed Rosario.

Meanwhile, the Rangers received two players who would turn out to be significant contributors to their organization. Duran, a lightning fast, strong armed, slick fielder with nearly unlimited range is currently slashing  .274 /.333/.446 with a .779 OPS as the Rangers current third baseman and super utility player. Based on his performance this season, if Duran were a free agent, he’d be worth $34.2 million season to date according to FanGraphs.

While Glenn Otto never panned out as a prospect and Trevor Hauver appears destined to be a career Minor Leaguer, there is no denying that Josh Smith was also a big win for the Rangers. Smith has accumulated 4.7 fWAR career to date and while he’s battled injuries, he has a .787 OPS with the Blue Jays this season (the Rangers traded Smith to the Blue Jays at this year’s Trade Deadline).

Where would the Yankees be today if they would have hung onto Duran (6.1 fWAR) and Smith (4.7 fWAR)? Well, considering Joey Gallo was only worth about 1.6 fWAR during his stint with the Yankees, it’s pretty fair to say that the Yankees would have benefitted from 9.2 fWAR that would have bolstered both their infield and their outfield as well.

Now let’s imagine what would have happened if Brian Cashman had traded away the two mystery players I’m about to review. I’ll begin today’s piece by examining each mystery player’s final season of Triple-A in the Yankees system.

PlayerA:

●      194 AB

●      .942 OPS

●      .297 ISO

●      153 wRC+

●      11.5% BB%

●      35.4% K%

Player B:

●      352 AB

●      .854 OPS

●      .219 ISO

●      147 wRC+

●      11.5 BB%

●      23.9 K%

Both players have very loud bats for sure, but player A had the better final MiB season. When we look at the entirety of each player’s time in the Minor Leagues, both players were similarly productive.

Player A: Played 5 MiB Seasons

1,687 AB / 458 H / 86 HR / 288 RBI / 119 SB / 30 CS / 203 BB / 626 K

.272 AVG / .354 OBP/ .497 SLG / .851 OPS

Player B: Played 4 MiB Seasons

1,313 AB / 363 H / 57 HR / 217 RBI / 13 SB / 2 CS / 192 BB / 380 K

.277 AVG / .371 OBP / .471 SLG / .842 OPS

Now let’s compare each player’s stats across their first season’s worth of Major League at-bats! Player B obviously struck out way too much as he attempted to adjust to MLB pitching. His K% soared from Triple-A, where it was 23.9 percent, all the way to 44.2 percent in the Majors.

Meanwhile, Player A also struggled with strikeouts, recording a 35.2 percent Big League strikeout rate. All said, Player A was the more polished of the two players.

PlayerA:

●      163 AB

●      .743 OPS

●      .196 ISO

●      107 wRC+

●      9.9 BB%

●      35.2 K%

Player B:

●      84 AB

●      .608 OPS

●      .167 ISO

●       62 wRC+

●       9.5 BB%

●       44.2 K%

You may be slightly surprised to learn that player B is Aaron Judge and player A is Spencer Jones. Believe it or not, Jones is having a more successful go of things in his first season than Judge did in 2016. Am I suggesting Spencer Jones will turn out to be a superstar like Aaron Judge? Not in the least. The point is however, that if an organization was going to give up on a prospect and trade him for a rental player or perhaps a year-and-a-half of team control on a player, perhaps trading a player like Jones would wind up being a very bad decision.

Remembering back, there were many voices in the media that were clamoring for the Yankees to trade Aaron Judge during the 2016 offseason. “His swing is too long,” they said. “He strikes out way too much,” we often heard. “He’s too big and he’ll be often injured,” was another comment that was stated frequently. Thankfully, the Yankees hung onto Judge and gave him a chance to make adjustments and he began to control the strike zone far better during his second season. Fast forward to today, Judge is on track to become a Hall of Famer, but what about this other guy - Spencer Jones? Why even think about him as he tries to become a big leaguer in the immense shadow of Aaron Judge.

Comparisons between Jones and Judge likely began because both players stand a towering 6’7” - but the two players have very similar Minor League stats, though Jones maintained a significantly higher strikeout rate throughout his Minor League experience.

During this past Trade Deadline, the Yankees were looking for catching and relief pitching. Would it have been wise to trade Spencer Jones to fill one of these needs? Many were in favor of including Jones in various package, but what if Jones turns out to be an everyday player in the Majors and what if he fixes the holes in his swing? Could he even turn into a very good MLB player or perhaps even an All-Star?

Likewise, over the course of the 2016 offseason, the Yankees had numerous needs. What if they had traded Aaron Judge to fill one of them? If that had occurred, wouldn’t it have gone down as not one of, but very possibly - the worst trade of all-time. The Yankees would have lost 63.5 f-WAR against whatever gains Judge would have brought from a 2016 Trade.

Let’s acknowledge that there is a very slim chance that Spencer Jones will wind up being a generational talent like Aaron Judge has become. At the same time though, the potential is certainly there with Jones, if he can start to control the strike zone, to become a very good outfielder at what is the game’s highest level. How much f-WAR would a right-hand hitting catcher or a relief pitcher have brought to the Yankees if Jones had been dealt? Would the trade value be greater than what Jones will achieve in his career?

Personally, I think the new batting stance of Spencer Jones creates too much movement prior to his swing. If we compare Jones's swing to that of Shohei Ohtani’s, it’s abundantly clear that remaining still as the pitcher releases the ball is very important as it helps the batter see the ball. From a set stance, it is far easier to approach the baseball once it’s been thrown by the pitcher. Jones is in a deep crouch, with an extremely open batting stance during the pitcher’s windup. Then, once the ball is released, Jones swings his right leg into a squared up position and he unbends his knees as he stands up taller.

One thing is certain, when Jones swings and misses, he often misses very badly. Moving from an open stanced, crouched position to standing upright just as the pitch is being released is likely making it hard for him to see pitches. When we watch the players Jones is modeling himself after - Ohtani and Judge - it’s evident that neither player creates unnecessary movement as the pitch is being delivered - as the key for both of these future Hall of Famers is to maintain the ability to see the baseball.

When players miss badly on their swings, it’s a clear indication that they’re not seeing the ball well. Going forward, I’d love to see Jones get some quality hitting instruction and I must admit that also quite happy that he remained a Yankee at this year’s Trade Deadline.

Is there a chance that Spencer Jones will turn out to be like Aaron Judge? Probably not, but what he might be able to do is to be the best version of himself as he can be. His floor is pretty high already. His bat may miss too many balls, but when he does connect, his bat creates damage and that kind of carnage has value - especially for a true two-way player like Jones is. Jones has natural power, speed, a good throwing arm and overall defensive acumen. If Jones can reduce the pre-pitch movement in his swing, his ceiling could be quite high.

I’m not sure how you feel, but I’m pretty happy that the Yankees didn’t give up on Jones at this year’s Trade Deadline and it goes without saying that I’m relieved that the Yankees didn’t trade Aaron Judge during the 2016 offseason.