What The Yankees Need To Do To Win the Division
What The Yankees Need To Do To Win the Division
by James Vlietstra
April 2, 2022
*** After a long and tumultuous winter, the off-season is finally drawing to a close. Opening Day is Thursday, April 7 when the Boston Red Sox visit The New York Yankees at Yankees Stadium. The Yankees are looking to end their current 12-year World Series drought.
This year, the playoffs have been expanded to include six teams from each league. This will include the three division winners as well as three wild cards with the next best records. Vegas Insider currently includes four teams from the East Division among the top six favorites in the American League. In addition to the Yankees, these are the Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and Tampa Rays.
My guess is that it’s going to take 95+ wins to win the division. That’ll be no easy task. With the unbalanced schedule, the Yankees will be charged with playing their division rivals 19 times each. In addition to the previously mentioned three teams, the games against the Baltimore Orioles will likely determine the division winner.
If the Yankees can manage to go 11-8 versus each of the Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox, they would be at nine games over .500. 13-6 against the O’s will bring their divisional record to 46-30. That means that they need to go 49-37, or better, outside of their division.
Let’s take a look at some of their key players to see what kind of year they will need to make it through the regular season with a team capable of making a run deep into the playoffs and a shot at winning World Series number 28.
Aaron Judge: 140 games, 110 runs, 45 HR, 120 RBI – .280/.380/.580/.960, 7.5 WAR, Gold Glove
Joey Gallo: 145 games, 85 runs, 40 HR, 95 RBI – .205/.325/.495/.820, 4.3 WAR, Gold Glove
DJ LeMahieu: 150 games, 100 runs, 20 HR, 75 RBI – .310/.370/.509/.870, 4.8 WAR
Anthony Rizzo: 140 games, 85 runs, 25 HR, 80 RBI – .270/.370/.470/.840, 4.2 WAR
Giancarlo Stanton: 140 games, 90 runs, 40 HR, 110 RBI – .270/.370/.570/.940, 6.0 WAR
Gleyber Torres: 140 games, 70 runs, 25 HR, 75 RBI – .270/.340/.440/.780, 3.2 WAR
Aaron Hicks: 100 games, 50 runs, 15 HR, 60 RBI – .230/.330/.400/.730, 1.4 WAR
Kyle Higashioka: 80 games, 35 runs, 15 HR, 40 RBI -.200/.260/.400/.660, 1.1 WAR
Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 145 games, 80 runs, 10 HR, 50 RBI – .280/.330/.380/.710, 2.9 WAR
Ben Rortvedt: 70 games, 30 runs, 10 HR, 30 RBI – .210/.280/.320/.600, 1.4 WAR
Gerrit Cole: 190 IP, 17 wins, 250 strikeouts – 6.3 WAR
Jordan Montgomery: 160 IP, 11 wins, 180 strikeouts – 3.6 WAR
Luis Severino: 100 IP, 7 wins, 120 strikeouts – 2.3 WAR
Jameson Taillon: 180 IP, 16 wins, 190 strikeouts – 4.5 WAR
Jonathon Loaisiga 60 IP, 6 wins, 65 strikeouts, 10 saves – 2.7 WAR
Domingo German: 130 IP, 8 wins, 120 strikeouts – 2.4 WAR
Chad Green: 70 IP, 5 wins, 80 strikeouts, 5 saves – 1.8 WAR
Luis Gil: 60 IP, 5 wins, 70 strikeouts – 1.3 WAR
Aroldis Chapman: 60 IP, 4 wins, 75 strikeouts, 30 saves – 2.7 WAR
Nestor Cortes Jr: 100 IP, 8 wins, 100 strikeouts – 1.6 WAR
Deivi Garcia: 40 IP, 4 wins, 50 strikeouts – 1.4 WAR
Clarke Schmidt: 50 IP , 5 wins, 60 strikeouts – 2.1 WAR
Luis Medina: 50 IP, 5 wins, 60 strikeouts -1.7 WAR
Obviously injuries are going to happen and trades are going to be made, especially with 130+ Rule 5 eligible players. This team has has the potential to run out a team with a Pythagorean theory of well over 100 wins.
If they can enter October healthy and hot, we are going to have an exciting fall in New York this year!
