The Yankees are playing as the best team in the MLB this season, but with a 32-man roster, who of the Bronx Bombers will make the team?
The Guaranteed Players:
Aaron Judge (OF) - 3.0 bWAR/3.4 fWAR - Highest bWAR & fWAR in AL (Overall)
Nestor Cortes (SP) - 2.4 bWAR/1.7 fWAR - 3rd bWAR & 6th fWAR in AL (Pitchers)
Michael King (RP) - 0.9 bWAR/1.4 fWAR - Highest fWAR in AL (Relievers)
Clay Holmes (RP) - 1.7 bWAR/1.0 fWAR - 2nd fWAR in AL (Relievers)
To start, we have to consider that of the 32-man roster, every additional Yankee who makes the roster is fighting for one of 17 spots on the team. (This takes into consideration that all 15 AL teams have to have to least one representative.) Even though this makes it difficult, we should be able to figure out which Yankees will become All-Stars. To do that easily, we have to find who are the best players in baseball at their positions. Luckily, those are the easy players to find.
On top of their impressive WAR totals through the first 40% of the season Aaron Judge has hit 5 more home runs that any other hitter in the American League and Nestor Cortes is one of two AL pitchers with a sub-2.00 ERA and a WHIP below 0.950. They're for sure to make the All-Star Game. No questions asked, they're the best two players on the best team in baseball. If they don't make the team, something has gone horribly wrong.
Now, I also believe that Michael King and Clay Holmes will be All-Stars. They're #1 and #2 in the American League when it comes to relievers and typically each All-Star team will feature about 3 relievers. Whoever is 2nd on the pecking-order for relievers (who may actually be King) is going to have an uphill battle because in order to get all teams represented the reliever role is often an easy spot to fill. Regardless, both has played to a level that should be fitting of an All-Star.
Can I Guess the Players From the Each AL Team?
A little side-tangent, I have 32 spots to fill here. So, let's try and nail down one player per team. (Note: This is pure speculation from mostly bWAR standings as well as a decent understanding of story* for boosting some players.)
Baltimore Orioles - Trey Mancini (1B/OF/DH)*
Toronto Blue Jays - Alek Manoah (SP)
Tampa Bay Rays - Shane McClanahan (SP)
Boston Red Sox - Rafael Devers (3B)
New York Yankees - Aaron Judge (OF)
Minnesota Twins - Byron Buxton (OF)
Cleveland Guardians - Jose Ramirez (3B)
Chicago White Sox - Tim Anderson (SS)*
Kansas City Royals - Andrew Benintendi (OF)
Detroit Tigers - Tarik Skubal (SP)
Houston Astros - Yordan Alvarez (DH)
Los Angeles Angels - Mike Trout (OF)
Texas Rangers - Martin Perez (SP)
Oakland Athletics - Frankie Montas (SP)*
Seattle Mariners - Ty France (1B)
Spots Filled:
Catcher: 0 of 3
First Base: 2 of 2
Second Base: 0 of 2
Third Base: 2 of 2
Shortstop: 1 of 3
Outfield: 4 of 7
Designated Hitter: 1 of 2
Starting Pitchers: 5 of 8
Relief Pitchers: 0 of 3
Other Shot Players:
If we use my simple chart from above, we see that there are a lot of spots to fill for Yankees players to compete for. Now, if we add in Nestor Cortes (6 of 8 starting pitchers) and both Clay Holmes and Michael King (2 of 3 relief pitchers), then we have shut down a little on availability.
Gerrit Cole has a shot at another All-Star appearance (last night notwithstanding). He has been a valuable starting pitcher this year, but with just 2 spots to fill for the rotation after we consider Manoah, McClanahan, Perez, Montas, and Cortes it's going to be an uphill battle. For starters, Cole isn't in the Top-10 in AL bWAR for pitchers and fighting for those last spots are going to be guys like: Michael Kopech (CWS), Justin Verlander (HOU), Paul Blackburn (OAK), and Logan Gilbert (SEA). It's going to be a fight. (And let's not forget Jameson Taillon- who has a higher bWAR- as another contender too!)
Gleyber Torres is going to be fighting for a spot in the middle infield. I could imagine 5 players from second base and shortstop and just one true player guaranteed a spot in Tim Anderson based off of fitting the team requirement. However, he is going to be fighting the likes of Jose Altuve (HOU), Andres Gimenez (CLE), Xander Bogaerts (BOS), Wander Franco (TBR), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Carlos Correa (MIN) for those spots as well. (DJ LeMahieu- who is listed as a third baseman on the ballot- could also appear in this fight.)
Jose Trevino. Yes, I think Jose Trevino could make the All-Star roster. The catching depth in the AL is very very bad. And, catcher is a position that often gets over represented at the All-Star Game in order to prevent them from catching too many innings. By OPS, he's 4th in the AL for catchers on the ballot behind Alejandro Kirk (TOR), Tom Murphy (SEA), and Jonah Heim (TEX). I also want it to be noted: NOBODY else is saying this as a possibility. If it comes true, I was the first to say it. Jose Trevino COULD be an All-Star in 2022.
Anthony Rizzo is an option for first base. He has hit a lot of home runs this season and is a spectacular glove, but I think he gets the short end of a very top-heavy position in the AL. He's fighting guys like Trey Mancini (BAL), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Ty France (SEA), Luis Arraez (MIN), and even Ji-Man Choi (TBR) for one of probably 2 spots and is pretty clearly in the middle of that pack. The home runs will help his case, but he's an outside-looking-in with his being at a tough to break position and being yet another Yankee player.
Giancarlo Stanton- who is listed as an outfielder on the ballot- is my final "maybe" for the All-Star Game. Obviously, he's a powerful hitter and he has the 10th highest SLG and Home Runs in the AL this season and the 7th most RBI's. Problem is that DH is a pretty small represented position and there are a lot of very good DH players between Stanton, Shohei Ohtani (LAA), J.D. Martinez (BOS), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Kyle Lewis (SEA), and Trey Mancini (BAL). I could also see a DH getting shafted in order to make room for a team-filler player. However, never count Stanton out: he could rake 5 homers in a week to give him a very comfortable position to get a spot.
