Will the Yankees Win the American League East?
Will the Yankees Win the American League East?
…Mid September Thoughts from Cary Greene
September 15, 2026
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Yankees fans - Here. We. Go! The bell has rung and we’re into the stretch run. At the time of this writing, the Yankees have only 13 games remaining in the regular season, four of which happen to be against the American League Eastern Division leading Tampa Bay Rays.
This past Saturday, the Yankees lost 12-2 to the Mets in what was an absolutely crucial game for the Yankees, who were trailing the Rays by 3 games at the time. Now, the Rays lead has ballooned to 4 games.
In their last 30 games, the Rays have slipped a little, as they’re playing .567 baseball, well below their season’s average of .604. Thus far this season, the Yankees simply aren’t a .600 team, as they’ve played at a .577 clip. In order to catch the Rays, something would have to give.
With the Rays playing at a .700 pace in their last 20 games, including a .700 winning percentage in their last ten games, in order to make up 4 games on the Rays, here’s what would need to happen.
If the Rays continue playing at a similar pace, they will win 10 or 11 of their final 15 games. In order for the Yankees to catch the Rays, they would need to go 15-0, or possibly 14-1, in their last 15 games. Accomplishing that seems highly unlikely, so the only realistic way that the Yankees could catch the Rays would be if Tampa falls off the pace they’ve been playing at, while at the same time, the Yankees play a bit better. If that were to occur, the Rays would march into Yankee Stadium from September 22nd to September 24 for the most important four-game series of the season.
If the Yankees were to win, or even sweep that series, they’d be in position to win the Division if they also swept their final three-game series in Yankee Stadium against the Orioles. Leading up to the pivotal 4 game set with the Rays at the Stadium, the Yankees need to go 9-2 if they want to overtake a Rays team that is playing .700 baseball at this juncture of the season. Barring this happening, the Yankees will likely have no chance to win the American League East.
This means that if Aaron Boone rests key players once the Yankees lock up a playoff spot, it will make it all the harder for his ball club to get red hot for the stretch run. Pretty much, anything short of the Yankees becoming red hot leads to what will most likely be a second place finish in the Division - and that means that the Yankees most likely will have a date with Boston in the American League Wild Card Series.
So there you have it Yankees fans. I’m signing off on the Yankees finishing in second place in the Division this season. The math just seems to paint an insurmountable hill for the Yankees to climb.
Let’s take a poll. Will the Yankees miraculously win the American League East, or are we likely looking at a second (or third) place finish?
It doesnt look good for them overtaking the Rays, I still dont like the attitude of accepting the wild card and resting players. Fight to the bitter end or until eliminated and play the best team on the field.
or third?
serious?
the math for that is even more impossible than for us to get 1st, so if you are signing off on us getting second at least also trust that there will not be a total collapse.
Judge should not get any days off for the rest of the year. he must in the lineup EVERY day, either RF or DH.
one, hopefully he gets hot in the next day or two and dominates the rest of the year.
two, at the absolute worst they need to get his rhythm back for tha playoffs. hopefully he can pick up where he left off last postseason with a .500 BA
2nd place
nothing wrong with your math.
they need to be nearly perfect to pul ahead of the Rays
unless the Rays play. pretty imperfectly.
I would think that the Yankees have to hope that they are no more than 2 games behind Tampa by Monday
Pretty much need to sweep them to have a chance. If they do, the remaining schedules favor the Good Guys.