About the Off-Day: On The Brink

About the Off-Day: On The Brink

By Tim Kabel

October 7, 2025

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Yesterday, the Yankees had a day off before resuming the Division Series against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. To characterize the first two games of the Division Series against the Blue Jays as a disaster would be an understatement. I know some people are trying to portray the fact that the Yankees scored seven runs late in the game to only lose by six runs as a positive. Somehow, they are trying to find a way to view it as momentum. The Yankees gave up 23 runs to the Blue Jays this weekend, which is the most runs allowed in a two-game stretch by the Yankees in the playoffs ever: as in ever. Trying to find something positive in the Yankees’ performance this weekend would be like the captain of the Titanic saying, “we were making really good time right up until we sank.”

The Yankees are not eliminated. At this point, they are still alive. They have lost all wiggle room. They must win three games in a row against the Blue Jays, including another one back at Toronto where they have lost eight of nine games this season. Essentially, if the Yankees want to play in the ALCS, they will have to win five consecutive elimination games. They were able to beat the Red Sox in two of those games. Now they would have to win three of them against the Blue Jays. Clearly, the Blue Jays are a better team than the Red Sox and it's fairly obvious that they are a better team than the Yankees right now.

In Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format, teams that won both games one and two at home have advanced 31 out of 34 times, (that is 91.2%). In 20 of those instances, the winning team swept the opposition. For the Yankees to win this series, it would take a lot of luck and improved performances in every facet of the game. It would be quite an uphill battle.

Being a fan often necessitates being a hopeless optimist. Realistically, there is little to no chance that the Yankees will win this series. I know it's possible, but the Blue Jays have not simply eked out wins against the Yankees. They totally decimated them. As I wrote yesterday, the Blue Jays are like sharks in a feeding frenzy. If that continues tonight, this thing could be over quickly. The Yankees cannot afford to fall into a hole early. If Carlos Rodon gives up a few runs at the beginning of the game and Aaron Boone turns to the bullpen, we might as well start planning activities for the rest of October that don't involve watching baseball games.

I can easily imagine a scenario in which Carlos Rodon gives up two runs and has a runner on in the second inning and Aaron Boone decides to yank him from the game and bring in Paul Blackburn or Luke Weaver. Of course, Boone would have some inane justification for this afterward, but it wouldn't matter. Let's forget about the Yankees winning the Division Series for a minute. If the Yankees are going to win tonight, they will need a dominant performance from Carlos Rodon. That's it. If he pitches 5.2 innings and gives up three or four runs, that could be the end of the season.

The Yankees are on the brink of elimination. They must win three elimination games in a row against a team that has played them very well this season, especially in the first two games of the Division Series. The Yankees need offensive production up and down the lineup. They need dominant pitching. They need spectacular and error-free defense.

As Aaron Boone says ad nauseam, “it's all right there in front of us.” Hearing him say that has never been good for my blood pressure. While it is true that a victory in tonight's game and subsequently two more games, is a possibility in front of the Yankees, so is elimination. That is right there in front of them too. Before this series, Aaron Boone took issue with a statement made by Buck Martinez, an announcer for the Blue Jays by stating that the Yankees were in essence a very good team. Well, they haven't proven it so far. As the old saying goes, talk is cheap. The Yankees have a lot to do, and it begins tonight.