About the Off-Day: Taking Stock

About the Off-Day: Taking Stock

By Tim Kabel

October 4, 2025

***

Yesterday, the Yankees had a day off before beginning the Division Series against the Toronto Blue Jays this afternoon. I thought this would be the perfect time to drag out my home run predictions that I made at the beginning of the season to see how they compared to reality. I did this at the midway point of the season as well. When I originally made these predictions, I stated that I would review them around the All-Star break and then at the end of the season. To be totally transparent, I missed a few of them by six miles. Let's take a look. 

These were my preseason predictions:

·      Austin Wells.            25

·      Paul Goldschmidt     28

·      Jazz Chisolm, Jr.      31

·      Anthony Volpe          16

·      Oswaldo Cabrera     15

·      Jasson Dominguez   31

·      Cody Bellinger          42

·      Aaron Judge             54

·      Ben Rice                   37

       Total:                       279

First, let's look at the total. The actual total number of home runs for the Yankees this season was 274, which was the most in the Major Leagues. I missed it by 5, which I think is pretty close. They could have hit that many if they played one more game.

Now, let's take a gander at the individual player predictions:

Austin Wells- I predicted 25.  He hit 21. He struggled a great deal in the middle of the season and many people suspect that he was injured. With the way the Yankees handle injuries, that certainly could have been the case. Regardless, I was not too far off on this one.

Paul Goldschmidt- I predicted 28. Goldschmidt hit 10. I totally missed this one. He did have a good year as far as batting average went, particularly against left-handed pitchers. However, I think his days of hitting for power are over. I suspect this will be his only year as a Yankee, but it was a successful one.

Jazz Chisolm, Jr.-I predicted 31.  He hit 31.  This was the only one where I was spot on. He also stole 31 bases, joining the 30/30 club.  I expect he will continue to do that as long as he remains healthy.

Anthony Volpe- I predicted 16.  He hit 19.  Since this is not The Price is Right, I won’t be penalized for going over. It was a very streaky season for a young man who is turning out to be a very streaky player.

Oswaldo Cabrera- I predicted 15.  He was injured early in the year and was out for the season. Let's hope he makes a speedy and complete recovery.

Jasson Dominguez- I predicted 31.  He hit 10.  This is another one I missed by a country mile. I do believe Dominguez will hit for power in the future. I think that will come when he gets more consistent playing time and a clearly defined role. I think he had a fine season, all things considered. If we use Ben Rice as a model, it would not be unrealistic to expect a similar level of progression from Dominguez next year.

Cody Bellinger- I predicted 42.  He hit 29.  He had a very good year for the Yankees, and I hope he is back next year. I was overly optimistic in my prediction, thinking he would take full advantage of the short porch in rightfield. Still, 29 home runs is nothing to sneeze at.

Aaron Judge- I predicted 54.  He had 53. Had he not been injured; he would have eclipsed my predicted total. It was another MVP type year from the Captain.

Ben Rice- I predicted 37.  Rice hit 24.  Once Giancarlo Stanton returned from the IL, Rice found playing time a little harder to come by. Still, he progressed very nicely and although he did not hit the number of home runs I predicted, I feel confident that he will reach that level in the near future. He developed into one of the Yankees’ better and more consistent offensive players this season.

I did not make predictions for Trent Grisham or Giancarlo Stanton. It was not expected that Grisham would have a prominent role on the team, as he did not do so during his first year with the Yankees. He hit 34 home runs which was amazing and it also made-up for the difference  in production from the players for whom I overestimated. As far as Stanton is concerned, it was unclear if he would even be able to play this season and when or if he would return from his injury. He hit 24 home runs and drove in 65 runs in 76 games, which is remarkable.

There you have it. I was pretty close on some of them, and I missed others by huge margins. Overall, my total predicted number of home runs, which many people felt was daft at the beginning of the season, was actually very close. It was a fun exercise and I hope everyone enjoyed it.