About the Off-Season: Taking Stock- The Pitching

About the Off-Season: Taking Stock- The Pitching

By Tim Kabel

February 3, 2026

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Today is February 3rd. Pitchers and catchers will report to Spring Training for the Yankees on February 12th and position players will arrive on February 16th.

It appears that the Yankees have finished constructing the roster for the 2026 team.  That is both a good and a bad thing. It's good that they seem to be finished but the end result does not inspire a lot of confidence.

I started taking stock of the roster the other day. I began by looking at the position players.

Today, I will look at the pitching staff. It is somewhat difficult to analyze the Yankees’ pitching staff simply because the pitching staff on Opening Day will most likely not be the pitching staff in May. That had better be the case if the Yankees want to be competitive. We will start naturally with the starters.

It appears that the starting rotation at the beginning of the season will be Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, Luis Gil, and an undetermined fifth starter. Max Fried is a solid pitcher and will be with the Yankees for seven more seasons, including this one. He started off extremely well for the Yankees in 2025, but developed some blister issues at the midpoint of the season and struggled a bit before regaining his earlier form. He should provide the Yankees with excellent performances and stability. However, he cannot do everything by himself. He needs the other pitchers in the rotation to perform well also.

Cam Schlittler burst onto the scene late in the season in 2025 and had a phenomenal performance against the Red Sox in the Wild Card series, striking out twelve and walking none in eight shutout innings. He didn't pitch quite as well against the Blue Jays in the ALDS but did pitch well enough to win. Unfortunately, the Yankees did not do anything else well enough to win. He could emerge as a tremendous pitcher and a potential All-Star in 2026.

Will Warren was a solid, but not spectacular pitcher for the Yankees in 2025 as he continued his development. If he continues on that progression, he should improve on the 9-8 record and the 4.44 ERA.

Luis Gil was the 2024 Rookie of the Year but suffered injuries and did not pitch until later in the season in 2025. He started a total of 11 games and had a record of 4-1. He was solid but walked too many people. His injury history is a major concern. He might be better suited to pitching out of the bullpen.

This is where things get a little uncertain. The Yankees certainly hope that Ryan Weathers takes the fifth spot in the starting rotation. He showed a lot of potential with the Marlins but has not pitched very much at all due to injuries. If Matt Blake and his staff are able to unlock Weathers’ tremendous potential, the Yankees might really have something. I hope so because they sent away four prospects to get him.

There has been some speculation that like Gil, Weathers this might be better suited to the bullpen There is also some thought then he might begin the season in AAA to continue his fine-tuning before joining the Major League team. I don't think that will happen because unless Weathers bombs out in spring training, the Yankees will need him.

The Yankees certainly hope that the starting rotation will get a major upgrade after the first month of the season. It is hoped, if not expected, that Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole will return to the team at that time. Rodon seems to be more likely to return first. His injury and surgery were not as severe as those that Cole had. Cole missed the entire 2025 season.

I don't think it's realistic or fair to assume that both Rodon and Cole will automatically return at the top of their game. It might take them some time to regain their form. That is particularly true with Cole, who had Tommy John surgery. It will be great to have them back, but it is not entirely certain how close to their peak performances they will be when they return.

It is hoped that Clarke Schmidt will return but that will most likely not be until the second half of the season. It would seem likely that when Rodon and Cole rejoin the rotation, Gil and Weathers will be the most likely pitchers to move to the bullpen. Perhaps Warren will go instead of Weathers. That will be determined. There has also been some speculation that when Clarke Schmidt returns, it will be as a relief pitcher and not a starter.

That leads us to the bullpen. The Yankees did not do much in the off-season to upgrade their bullpen. In fact, due to the departures of Devin Williams and Luke Weaver, the bullpen is not as strong as it was, which was not very strong to begin with. The bullpen will be made-up of eight of the following pitchers: David Bednar, Jake Bird, Paul Blackburn, Angel Chivilli, Fernando Cruz, Yerry De los Santos, Camilo Doval, Dom Hamill, Brent Headrick, Tim Will, Cade Winquest, and Ryan Yarbrough. In Spring Training some of those pitchers will be weeded out.

The concern is that other than Bednar, Cruz, Hill, and possibly Yarbrough, none of the other pitchers are spectacular. Some have been good others, not so much. 

It was thought that the Yankees would upgrade the bullpen during the off-season. They didn't. I don't believe that Hammel, Winquest, and Chivilli are major upgrades. I don't know that they are upgrades at all. The bullpen was an issue last year and it could be more of one this year. Now if everything goes according to plan, at some point when Cole and Rodon return, two members of the starting rotation on Opening Day could be moved to the bullpen. That would strengthen the bullpen in theory. Unfortunately, the Yankees play in New York not in theory.

If everything breaks in the Yankees’ favor, the pitching staff could be very good. The final version of the starting rotation could be excellent, which would directly and indirectly improve the bullpen.

The pitching staff, much like the starting lineup needs a lot of ifs to come out on the positive side. It's a gamble. As I stated the other day, I think it is more likely that the 2026 Yankees do not make the playoffs than it is that they win the World Series. There are just too many things that rely on hopes and prayers.