Andy Singer 2025 Predictions - All Star Break Check-In

By Andy Singer

July 15th, 2025

Photo Credit - Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images

Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated. Thank you to all of you who have reached out during my brief, unexpected absence last week – it is greatly appreciated to know that many of you missed my writing and the SSTN Mailbag. A quick special shoutout to Fuster - the Groucho Marx bit in the comments was great. I'm back in action, so my writing will appear here more frequently again.

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Before the season started, I wrote down my predictions for both the Yankees' season and individual players. As we take a moment to breathe during the All-Star Break, now seems like a good time to check-in on those predictions. Let's take a look:

The Starting Lineup

C: Austin Wells will cement himself as an All-Star. Not only that, Austin Wells is likely the focus of my boldest prediction: pick your favorite flavor of WAR; Austin Wells will be the most valuable catcher in all of baseball by one of the major WAR metrics. I predict that Austin Wells will be excellent all year, batting .270/.365/.510, with 30 HR, 25 2B, 75 R, while playing excellent defense.

Update - Wells hasn't quite been an All-Star, nor will he be the most valuable catcher in baseball (Cal Raleigh has seen to that), but Wells is currently heating up. He's played through multiple injuries this season, and while his OBP and BA are both well below my expectations, he may get to the 30 homer mark. Baseball-Reference doesn't do a great job with catcher WAR, but Fangraphs has Wells at 2.3 fWAR. Including defense, Wells is having a "well" above-average season.

1B: Paul Goldschmidt does a solid job of solidifying 1B for the Yankees. He does miss games here and there, but he's solid overall. Goldy hits .270/.320/.480 with 24 HR in 135 games. The Yanks are able to cover for Goldy's missed games with a combination of Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice, and the team is just fine with that.

Update - Goldy has played superb defense at 1B, covering for some shaky infield defense. He's shown more contact and on-base skills than I expected, though he's shown almost no power with any consistency. Overall, he's been solid, even if he consistently hits too high in the lineup.

2B: Jazz Chisholm is inconsistent, but a lot of fun to watch. I think he finally puts together a 30/30 season, amassing 31 HR and 40 SB. He'll bat .255/.325/.495 with some wild hot streaks. I think he'll post a 5+ WAR season, as his personality was made for the bright lights of NY.

Update - If not for an early season injury, I might be right on the money with this one. If anything, Jazz has been better offensively than what I said he'd be, though he's stolen fewer bases than I expected since he's returned from injury. A 35/25 season is in play, and Jazz is incredibly exciting when he's hot. I also dare say that his personality has been a bright spot under the bright lights of New York.

3B: A combination of Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza (and a player to be named later) are perfectly acceptable as a platoon at 3B. Not good enough to make fans question whether an upgrade is needed, but better than many fans are willing to admit. I think the Yankees will produce 2+ WAR at 3B in 2025. Oswaldo Cabrera reaches 450 PA, batting .245/.320/.420 with 18 HR while playing solid defense (his batting numbers tick up as he's asked to primarily handle right-handed pitching). At the very least, we're satisfied by having a good defender at the hot corner.

Update - This aged badly. To be fair, while Cabrera was healthy, the combination of these two was on pace for almost exactly 2 WAR, and it didn't feel great. Peraza has totally tanked with more playing time. He's a good defender at 3B, but the Yankees desperately need an upgrade here.

SS: Anthony Volpe finally takes some steps forward at the plate. His good defense continues, and he hits .240/.320/.440, with 23 HR and 35 SB. Volpe does a little of everything, and while he's not a top-5 SS, he will be a top-10 SS in baseball.

Update - It's a tale of two seasons for Volpe. Volpe dove for a ball on May 3rd, injuring his shoulder. Here's how he played before the dive: .233/.326/.442, .768 OPS. Here's how he's performed since the dive on May 3rd: .201/.262/.348, .610. It's been incredibly disappointing to watch. I can't help but think that this is another instance in which the Yankee medical staff and decision makers have neglected their duty.

LF: Jasson Dominguez will win Rookie of the Year in the AL. He produces far better numbers from the left side of the plate than he does from the right side, leading to some grumblings about finding a platoon partner against tough lefties, but he's good enough in every other regard to impress. Dominguez will bat .258/.340/.485 with 30 HR and 35 SB (yes, the Yankees will have 2 guys with 30/30 seasons). He will also be just fine in LF, with flashes of greatness and some bad misreads early in the season.

Update - He won't go 30/30, but he's definitely heating up. He's been excellent from the left side of the plate all season, but he's beginning to hit righties too. His play in LF has gotten better as the season has moved along, and the talent is obvious. The power has been lighter than I expected, but he also typically heats up in the 2nd half of seasons.

CF: Cody Bellinger was made to play in Yankee Stadium. He plays solid CF defense and runs the bases well, with 15 SB. At the plate, he'll have a power surge, swatting 35 HR while batting .265/.330/.525. He'll also stay healthy all season.

Update - Bellinger has been awesome, outstripping my expectations by a bit. I think there's a real case for giving him an extension.

RF: Aaron Judge slips a bit, but not by much. He has a good defensive season out in RF, and he hits .285/.400/.595, with 47 HR. Not quite Ruthian, but pretty close. He stays healthy enough to stay in the lineup consistently, an he'll get some DH days to help keep him fresh.

Update - I'm a dope for predicting Judge to fall off a bit. He's been better than ever. It's truly a treat to watch him everyday. I'm trying not to take it for granted.

DH: Ben Rice does a pretty good job at DH in the early going, batting .240/.320/.470. He also moonlights at 1B and C, sitting almost entirely against left-handed pitching. Giancarlo Stanton makes 185 regular season plate appearances, struggling mightily during the regular season before coming up big in the playoffs.

Update - I've been pretty close on Ben Rice, but he's struggled mightily since the calendar turned to June. The underlying numbers remain excellent, so I still have high hopes. Stanton returned earlier than I expected, and he's been solid.

The Bench

The Yankees have a really good bench. I know most Yankee fans have a problem with Trent Grisham, but he's significantly better than most believe. He continues to play good defense in CF, and covers 225 PA decently, with some random power surges that leads to 12 HR.

Update - As the president and only member of the Trent Grisham fan club coming into the season, I feel really good about the fact that he's been as valuable as he's been this season. He's outstripped even my expectations.

JC Escarra turns out to be a fantastic backup catcher who hits well enough to make some appearances at 1B and DH. The Yanks will field calls from other teams about Escarra. He's a keeper.

Update - By the numbers, he is an excellent backup catcher, and you can squint and see more. The Yankees are fielding calls for Escarra.

One of Oswaldo Cabrera or Oswald Peraza warms the bench, giving the Yankees options all over the diamond from the utility infield spot. Both guys are also good baserunners, so that's a plus.

Update - Poor Oswaldo. Cabrera's injury really thinned the bench, as Peraza has proven that he's not an MLB caliber player. Neither has Jorbit Vivas, for that matter.

I predict that Pablo Reyes will make the team. He eventually grabs starts against lefties with his high-contact approach with the platoon advantage. He can play all over the infield and outfield, and he fits this roster beautifully.

Update - This was a uniquely awful take, and my mistake was proven in the first game of the season.

The Rotation

The rotation will have some struggles, but it will hold its own through mid-late May. It starts hot, but it becomes clear by early June that the team needs to make a move to acquire a starting pitcher.

Carlos Rodon is a steadying force, albeit one that has some clunkers tossed in. Rodon wlll toss 165 innings, producing a 3.65 ERA, with 195 strikeouts and a 1.15 WHIP. Yankee fans get a glimpse of peak Rodon with greater regularity.

Update - He's been even better than I expected. He's brought his A game in 2025, which the Yankees needed with Cole out.

Max Fried is the real ace of the staff in 2025. He'll toss 180 innings, producing a 2.95 ERA, with 170 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP. The Yanks bring it on days Fried starts, and he accumulates 19 wins.

Update - I'm pretty darn close here, though the blister issues he's experienced lately bear watching. He's on pace for more than 180 innings, though I feel good about every other number.

Marcus Stroman will help shoulder some of the load in April and May, before tapering off badly in June and July. He'll produce a 3.65 ERA in April and May, before pitching to a 5.00+ ERA in June and July. He'll be out of the rotation in August.

Update - I had it in reverse; Stroman was unplayable at the beginning of the season, but has been surprisingly solid in June and July. The Yankees still need an upgrade.

Clarke Schmidt is excellent when he pitches...which isn't often, as he throws just 97 innings in 2025. Schmidt starts when he can, but he just can't get his body to do it often enough. I predict he'll have a 3.30 ERA, when healthy.

Update - Sadly, I was right on the money here. Hopefully we'll see Schmidt in 2027.

Carlos Carrasco has something of a renaissance. It isn't always pretty, but he tosses 125 really important innings for the Yankees both in the rotation and out of the bullpen, with a 4.05 ERA. It doesn't sound impressive, but the veteran gives the Yankees a chance to win during his starts.

Update - This was an awful take. Carrasco was really bad, continuing his descent over the last few seasons.

Will Warren is up and down, but he has more ups than downs in his second try in the bigs. He'll pitch to a 3.95 ERA, with more strikeouts than innings pitched. He'll have some real clunkers, but he'll also have 4-5 truly dominant outings. He'll make the Yankees' playoff rotation over Clarke Schmidt.

Update - This is almost exactly correct. He has starts where he looks totally dominant, and others where he's totally lost. I think he still has a shot at a 3.95 ERA.

Luis Gil never makes it all the way back, as shoulder issues linger. When he pitches, he doesn't show the magic from 2024.

Update - TBD

The Yankees will acquire a good starter at the trade deadline.

Update - Cashman has stated that this is his goal.

The Bullpen

The Yankees go back to having a truly dominant bullpen. The major difference? The bullpen often has a true long reliever to help pick up innings for a starting staff that is severely lacking in innings eaters. Yoendrys Gomez, young starters from the shuttle, and Carlos Carrasco help soak up some really important innings.

On the backside, Devin Williams will amass 41 saves. Fernando Cruz, Luke Weaver, and Mark Leiter Jr. are all quite good in front of Williams. No one wants to hit against the Yankee bullpen.

Update - The bullpen is in trouble. Cruz has been excellent when healthy; Weaver and Williams have each struggled at various points; and Leiter Jr. was good until he tried to pitch through a broken leg. I was wrong here - the Yankees need at least 2 bullpen arms. I think there's an option for help in the minors in Carlos Lagrange, but trades would be preferable.

Overall Predictions

The Yankees jump out to a hot start amidst some adversity before playing through a really tough June. Reinforcements come out in July, with some guys returning from the IL, while others are imported, including a good starting pitcher. The Yanks will win 92 games and win the AL East again.

Update - This prediction is aging well, though the Yanks have a tough job to try to win the AL East.

They catch a heater, and the world gets a Dodgers vs. Yankees World Series rematch. The Yankees have a much better offense this time with a much tighter defense, and the Yanks win in 7 (I write for a Yankee blog; can I really not predict the team to win the World Series?!?!).

Update - I'm going to keep the faith...I still think we could see a Yankees vs. Dodgers rematch.