CASE CLOSED: Judge to CF, A Historical Look...
by Paul Semendinger
March 24, 2024
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In 2024, the Yankees will be taking Aaron Judge, their elite all-star right fielder (with a lingering toe injury and a history of missing games for a variety of injuries), and moving him to centerfield in his age-32 season.
Many agree with this move by the Yankees. Many state that it makes sense to move Aaron Judge to centerfield this year. I have taken the opposite view time and again. Moving Aaron Judge to centerfield in 2024 is a bad idea, foolhearty at best,... disastrous at worse.
I think this is a terrible idea for a host of reasons including, but not limited, to the following:
Judge has played the bulk of his career in RF (84.4% of his career playing time as an OF)
Judge is at the age when many players move off CF
Centerfield is a more demaning position physically than RF
Judge has a lingering injury (toe)
Judge has had core issues this spring
Judge is also injured a lot
The Yankees need Judge in the lineup
Judge is owed $320m over 8 years
To those who don't believe the toe injury is a big deal, I share the story of baseball great Dizzy Dean (in brief):
From 1932 to 1936, Dizzy Dean went 120-65, 3.04. He won 20 or more games four consecutive seasons. He was 12-7, 2.41 at the All-Star break in 1937. Dean got hit by a ball that broke his toe. He went 1-3, 3.59 the rest of the season. He never even made 20 starts in a season again. From 1938 through 1941, Dizzy Dean won all of 16 games. Dean's immediate and substantial fall from greatness all started with a toe injury.
For those who are still not convinced, let me put the debate to an end.
What the Yankees are trying to do, is extremely rare in the history of baseball. Teams do not often move their star right fielders to centerfield at age 32 or beyond. What the Yankees are doing goes against the collective knowledge and wisdom of the thinkers, managers, teams, and the like across the history of baseball. When you have a great player at a position, it makes little sense to move that person out of the position where he is great and while he is playing at the top of his game. In my research for this article, I found this to be especially true for right fielders.
For proof of this point, I went to the list of the Top Right Fielders in history. I looked at the data about how many of the top right fielders were moved to centerfield at their age-32 season or beyond. The facts spoke clearly - teams simply do not move their great rightfielders to centerfield at that age. The greatest right fielders were never asked nor expected to do this.
Aaron Judge ranks 35th on the list of all-time greatest right fielders. I looked at the careers of each of the 34 right fielders ranked above Aaron Judge all-time. I researched two simple questions in this study:
Did other teams take their great right fielders and try to turn them into centerfielders at age-32 or beyond?
Did any team ever win a pennant by moving the team's star right fielder to centerfield at age-32 or beyond?
My findings proved that the Yankees' plan is foolhearty, at best. The Yankees' plan goes against what teams have done with the greatest right fielders across the entirety of baseball history. Moving a 32-year-old right fielder to centerfield is an approach that was very rarely done and has never been done with a team that won a pennant. Ever. Only one contending team, ever tried this. The only other times this was done were with teams that were under .500 - in other words, it was a despiration move for a team with little to no chance of competitng.
Also no team ever did this with a power hitting right fielder who stands, physically, among the game's giants. The only time this was ever attempted was with smaller players - singles hitters whose games revolved around speed.
Here's a rundown of the players who are ranked above Judge all-time and the amount of games they played in centerfield from age-32 and beyond:
Babe Ruth - Never played CF at age 32 or older
Hank Aaron - Played all of 16 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Stan Musial - Played all of 9 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Mel Ott - Never played CF at age-32 or older
Frank Robinson - Never played CF at age-32 or older
Roberto Clemente - Played all of 2 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Al Kaline - Played all of 4 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Reggie Jackson - Never played CF at age 32 or older
Mookie Betts - He is not yet 32
Harry Heilmann - Never played CF at age 32 or older
Paul Waner - Played all of 4 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Larry Walker - Played all of 2 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Sam Crawford - Played all of 2 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Joe Jackson - Never played CF at age 32 or older
Tony Gwynn - Played all of 5 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Dwight Evans - Played all of 1 game in CF at age 32 and older
Ichiro Suzuki - Played 319 games in CF from age 32 and older. At age-33, he was a starting centerfielder
Reggie Smith - Played 23 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Sammy Sosa - Never played CF at age 32 or older
Dave Winfield - Played all of 16 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Bobby Abreu - Played all of 2 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Vlad Guerrero - Never played CF at age 32 or older
Bobby Bonds - Never played CF at age 32 or older
Gary Sheffield - Never played CF at age 32 or older
Enos Slaughter - Played all of 1 game in CF at age 32 and older
Elmer Flick - Played all of 13 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Willie Keeler - Played all of 1 game in CF at age 32 and older
Brian Giles - Played 36 total games in CF at age 32 and older
Chuck Klein - Never played CF at age 32 or older
Sam Rice - He played 326 games in CF from age 32 and older. He was a starting CF at age 32, but never started there again
Jack Clark - Never played CF at age 32 or older
Kiki Cuyler - Played 613 games in CF from age 32 and older. He started in CF at age 35
Bryce Harper - He is not yet 32
Harry Hooper - Never played CF at age 32 or older
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And that's that.
For the record, I also checked the historical fielding records for the remainder of the Top 50 right fielders of all time. None of the rest ever became a starting centerfielder at age-32 or beyond. (To be fair, there were a few players, from the game's earliest days where specific outfield positions were not listed. Readers are encouraged to check the records themselevs on all of this.)
The facts speak for themselves. Of the 50 greatest right fielders of all-time, only three were ever moved to play centerfield at age-32 or beyond.
Ichiro did it. Sam Rice did it. And Kiki Cuyler did it. Three players. But of note, none of those three were able to sustain playing as a starter in centerfield for more than one season (which seems to be strong evidence that the plan to move them there did not work).
Also of important note, Sam Rice, Kiki Cuyler, and Ichiro were very different players than Aaron Judge. These were smaller players who relied on speed and were not power hitters. Of note:
Kiki Cuyler was 5 feet, 10 inches. His playing weight was 180 pounds.
Sam Rice was 5 feet, 9 inches. His playing weight was 150 pounds.
Ichiro Suzuki is 5 feet, 11 inches. His playing weight was 175 pounds.
Aaron Judge is 6 feet, 7 inches. His playing weight is 282 pounds.
Regarding styles of play:
Kiki Cuyler averaged 11 home runs per 162 games in his career.
Sam Rice averaged 2 home runs per 162 games in his career.
Ichiro Suzuki averaged 7 home runs per 162 games in his career.
Aaron Judge averages 50 home runs per 162 games so far in his career.
More:
Kiki Cuyler (.321), Sam Rice (.322), and Ichiro Suzuki (.311) were high average hitters. Aaron Judge (.282), not so much.
And:
Kiki Cuyler stole 328 bases in his career. He led the league in steals four times. He stole 20 or more bases in a season 7 times.
Sam Rice stole 351 bases in his career. He led the league in steals once. He stole 20 or more bases in a season 9 times.
Ichiro Suzuki stole 509 bases in his career. He led the league in steals once. He stole 20 or more bases in a season 13 times.
Aaron Judge has 43 stolen bases in the entirety of his career. He has never stolen 20 bases in a season. Judge's high was 16.
All of this to say, very clearly, Aaron Judge is a completely different player than Cuyler, Rice, and Suzuki in style, approach, and body size.
Some Additional Notes:
When Ichiro did it, in 2006, the Seattle Mariners played to a record of 78-84. They finished in 4th place.
When Sam Rice did it, in 1922, the Washington Nationals (not the Senators that year) were 69-85. They finished in 6th place.
When Kiki Cuyler did it, in 1934, the Chicago Cubs played to a record of 86-65 and finished in 3rd place. That was the only team that had a chance of winning that tried this experiment. One contending team in the history of baseball.
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IN SUMMATION - Historically, teams do not move their great right fielders to centerfield at age-32 or beyond. The very best of the best right fielders were never asked to do that. Only three historically great right fielders, from the Top 50 all-time, played as a starter in centerfield for a season. None of the teams that asked the aging player to move from right field to centerfield won a pennant. None asked that player to play in centerfield for more than one season.
What the Yankees are trying to do by moving their great right fielder to centerfield goes against the collective wisdom across the history of baseball across every era. In addition no physically big player, like Aaron Judge was ever asked to do this.
None of those teams moved a player with a lingering toe injury there.
In addition and obviously, none of the three teams that tried this unsuccessful move were tied to that player with a long term contract for 8 more years and $320 million dollars. This point also can't be overstated. If the added wear and tear of playing centerfield negatively impacts Aaron Judge's health, the impact of his reduced performance could be felt for seven additional seasons after 2024. The long term impact could be devistating to the franchise.
What the Yankees are attempting to do is foolhearty at best. At worst, this could be a complete disaster. History tells us that the Yankees are clearly and absolutely making the wrong decision.
Case closed.
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