SSTN Mailbag: Trades, Trades, Everywhere Trades!

It's getting late early. Stop me if you've heard this before: after coming out of the gates hot and playing like the best team in the league, the Yankees have hit the skids and are playing like one of the 3 or 4 worst teams in baseball. If it sounds familiar, that's because it is. 2 out of the last 3 seasons, the Yankees were the best team in baseball at the start of the season, only to implode as the season dragged on. Last season, the Yankees just weren't very good, even if they held it together through May. I had a teacher who used to say, "Once is luck; twice is skill." I'd say the Yankees are skillfully bad.

Are there problems with the roster? Yes, but they aren't problems that should lead to play this horrendous. The Yankees' true talent level with this roster isn't as bad as they are now, nor is it quite as good as they performed to begin the year. My contention remains that something is amiss in the clubhouse and the dugout. The coaching staff is continually unable to maximize the talent this roster has. It's a good coaching staff when times are good; they prove time and time again that it is not the right coaching staff to elevate the team when times are tough. There are only ways to fix that problem:

1. Fire the coaching staff.

2. Build a roster that ensures the coaching staff doesn't matter.

Option 1 isn't happening unless the Yanks continue to play like the worst team in baseball through the next 2 or 3 weeks (an increasing possibility!). Option 2 hasn't happened because the owner seals the piggy bank in Teflon the second he spends real money on a player, so the GM has to search in corners and trash cans for spare parts. The only shot is to get as close to Option 2 as humanly possible, and that means having a truly A+ performance at the Trade Deadline.

Which brings us to today's Mailbag. Almost every question that I received (with one or two exceptions) has to do with reshaping the roster in the next week. For that reason, this week's SSTN Mailbag is going to be a Trade Deadline special. Buckle up; it's going to be one heck of ride.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we've got a Trade Deadline Special! Let's get at it:

Michael G. asks: Should Detroit sell what do you think of canha and vierling? I don't think either would be super expensive to acquire. Vierling can fill 3b and spot in of and canha can platoon at least with verdugo and be a late inning defensive replacement for rice

I really wanted to shoot this idea down, because I have visions of grandeur for the roster right now, but the more I batted this idea around, the more I both like this deal, and think the pieces represent more realistic targets.

Matt Vierling is a really interesting player and flies under the radar. Vierling has plus pop that he's starting to get to in games, and he makes tons of contact even if he doesn't have a high batting average to show for his troubles. The big deal with Vierling is that he is a fantastic baserunner, and he's really fast. The Yanks need more guys that can run, and Vierling would fulfill that need spectacularly. On the downside, both Vierling's strikeout and walk rates have backed up, and his best position lies in the outfield as opposed to 3B. However, all of the under-the-hood numbers indicate that Vierling has gotten really unlucky at the plate so far this year (particularly against fastballs) and the Tigers' home park kills some of his power. I think he's passable enough at 3B that the Yanks could get away with playing him there for the remainder of the year, given all of the other things he does well. Vierling has his 3 arbitration eligible years remaining, so the Yanks could conceivably keep him around for a while also.

Mark Canha has been around seemingly forever, and is the definition of a professional ballplayer. He comes in, doesn't make trouble, and does the job he's paid to perform. Canha has plenty of pop from the right side, mashes lefties (one of the Yankees' greatest offensive weaknesses this season), and can easily be a platoon partner for either Alex Verdugo or Ben Rice. The downside is his $11 million expiring contract, of which the Yanks would be on the hook for roughly $5 million (double it for tax purposes). However, Canha really fits what the Yankees need this year to a "T."

Given the 3 years of arbitration eligibility, his ability to play CF, and the likely desire the Tigers might have to build with someone like Vierling around, I'm not convinced he'd come that cheaply. Unfortunately, there aren't many great trade comps for Vierling. It's a bad comp, but the closest I could find in recent memory was the trade that sent Donaldson to the Blue Jays, but Donaldson was already an All-Star, and the A's have always taken back strange trade packages. Given where the Tigers are at in terms of development, I would guess that they want near-MLB ready pieces with some upside. I would offer something built around Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and Will Warren for the group of Vierling and Canha, but truthfully, that might be a bit light, even with a low-minors throw-in.

For Canha alone, assuming no money gets eaten, I think a deal for a mid-level prospect like Jared Serna or Everson Pereira (regardless of injury) represents fair value.

fantasyfb3313 asks: I am curious WHY do SO MANY, and it seems clear that includes Alan, worry about us trading away a TON of our current prospects to support 3 CURRENT HOF level players?

Soto, Judge, and Cole are proven!! they are still WELL WITHIN a window to win a WS.

in your opinion, how many of our current top 30 will reach even one all star game (honestly there have been some less than exceptional players who reached ONE ASG. i actually believe the standard should be 2, but for this exercise, i will go with even 1)

It becomes very easy to hug prospects if your job or hobby is to scout, follow, and evaluate the best possible outcomes. If we're just talking about tools, I think there are a fair number of interesting prospects in the Yankees' system, even if its depth has been depleted in recent months due to trades, under-performance, and graduations.

However, what you say in your second paragraph says it all: the Yankees' window for contention, open since 2017, is now closing with this core. They can extend it by a bit if they can re-sign Soto after this season, but this year is their best shot at a championship. The Yankees have good prospects, but few generational prospects that can be expected to be part of the next core.

In terms of pure potential, I think the Yanks have 3 or 4 potential All-Stars from A+ up in the system. How many of those are likely to reach that ceiling? Right now, I would say Dominguez is the only player in the system that would qualify as someone likely to have 1 All-Star season in his career. He's one of the best prospects in the sport for a reason. Otherwise? One or two pitchers in the system might get there if they either maximize their command or air it out as 1-inning relievers (the latter being more likely). Spencer Jones' ceiling is huge, but as I cautioned in Spring Training, his hit tool is incredibly raw, and has a long way to go before it projects to even below-average. If he gets to a "40" hit tool on the 20-80 scale, I think he can be a star, but he's got work to do to get there, and Yankee fans now understand what that means based on his performance in AA this season. That's not a knock; baseball is hard and progression isn't linear!

Were the Yankees in better shape, ideally you'd hold prospects like Dominguez and Jones close; the reality of the Yankees' roster might not allow them to do so unless Cashman pulls a giant rabbit out of his hat.

Steve M. asks: We've talked for weeks about potential trades and now we're very close to the trade deadline. I figure that should give you a better idea of who realistically will be available. I know that this is difficult to assume what other teams want and it risks being a little bit like a video game, but can you tell me what you think the options might be and what YOU would do?

You know what? I'm highly rational most of the time, but let's play like this is a video game. I'm going to play GM. Some of this is realistic; some of it is pie-in-the-sky with just enough reality to make you think; and all of it is based on the real context we see out in the league right now.

First, a couple of assumptions:

1. The Reds aren't going to sell in any meaningful way; they have a young core, and they won't subtract from it unless they fleece someone.

2. The Rangers are super hot, but a bad weekend could still make them sellers.

3. The Yankees need to fill out the edges AND the core of the roster.

4. I will not be using baseballtradevalues.com for any trade values or comps; I think their model is very much out of touch with the prices we are going to see on the trade market with fewer sellers, so historical comps aren't a good barometer for trade values right now. If you have access to either the trade simulator or the trade boards, just look at some of the listed values right now for prominent players. The seem...not right.

Some of these trades will be no-brainers; others will hurt terribly in the long-run, but really pay dividends in the short-term. Let's first look at some options that I think will exist on the market:

• The Nationals: Lane Thomas and Kyle Finnegan

  • Everyone knows that I am enamoured of Thomas; he fits this team beautifully if Trent Grisham is jettisoned somehow. He runs, he mashes lefties, and is definitely available for the right price. Finnegan is having a breakout year in relief, and gets batters to whiff. Some of the peripherals indicate he will fall back to Earth a bit, so I'm more hesitant here.

• Blue Jays: Chad Green, IKF...and Vlad Guerrero Jr.

  • Chad Green is having a typically excellent year in the 'pen, but his strikeout and walk numbers are backing up significantly and he's pricey for this season and next. IKF is having his best offensive season to-date and plays really good defense at 3B, though running it back with someone who didn't help us win the last two years doesn't seem as appealing. Vlad Jr. is the big prize. I really wonder if the Blue Jays will realize that the window is closing with this core and sell Vladito while he still has tons of value and can get them real pieces in return. Baseballtradevalues.com had some laughable values for Vladito, but the cost would hurt in real life, and you know that the Yankees would have to pay extra if the Jays would have to see him play for a division rival.

• Marlins: Tanner Scott

  • I had AJ Puk here, but he was traded last night. Scott is an easy one; he's a strikeout artist from the left side having a killer year. This is a no-brainer, but it will be a bidding war that will force an overpay.

• Rays: Isaac Paredes, Amed Rosario, Pete Fairbanks, and Garrett Cleavinger

  • Paredes is fine at 3B and would certainly bring big pop to the cleanup spot in the lineup. He also is a pull-only hitter who is a one-trick pony at the plate...he makes me nervous. Amed Rosario does a bit of everything, can play 3B, and is clearly a sell-now part. Pete Fairbanks is a good closer with solid strikeout rates who would be a good fit in New York. Both he and Clay Holmes workout at Tread Athletics in the off-season, so I wonder if they get along...Garrett Cleavinger is a useful reliever with a big strikeout rate.

• Cubs: Nico Hoerner, Drew Smyly, and Mark Leiter Jr.

  • The Cubs have stated that they're selling. Hoerner has years of team control remaining, plays outstanding defense, and is a contact-oriented bat without much pop. Smyly and Leiter Jr. are veterans who strike batters out and can help out of the 'pen.

• White Sox: Michael Kopech and Tommy Pham

  • Kopech is a former top prospect who the White Sox have really done a number on. He still gets gobs of strikeouts, but walks a few too many. I can't help but think that a real team would get him to be an elite reliever quickly. Pham is an ideal platoon bat for the Yanks who brings a charged, intense attitude to the field. I can't tell whether his personality is exactly what this team needs or the opposite of what this team needs, but he definitely shows up in big moments.

• Rangers: Josh Sborz and Robbie Grossman

  • Let's call this the cheap option. If the Rangers decide to sell, Sborz is a cheap reliever who gets strikeouts and comes with team control; I've liked Sborz since I saw him pitch in the Cape League, and he's finally healthy. Grossman is a cheap piece who floats from team-to-team, but is a switch hitter who really performs well against lefties. Neither will cost a ton.

• Giants: Matt Chapman, Taylor Rodgers

  • Let's call this the money option. We all know Chapman's story at this point, and there is concern that he might just take the team options the next couple of years of his contract. However, he is a wizard defensively, and he's on a heater right now. His total numbers would almost certainly be excellent in Yankee Stadium, and I wanted him this off-season. Rodgers is an excellent, but expensive reliever.

• Tigers - see the last question above.

My Final Trades:

1. Go get Vladito

   1. That would be real protection for Soto and Judge. Vladito is an imperfect piece defensively who is exactly what this team needs offensively. He's moonlighted at 3B, and I'd split him there, at 1B, and DH, depending on who's around. As previously noted, this trade will hurt. My opening offer would be Spencer Jones, Chase Hampton, Will Warren, George Lombard Jr., and TJ Rumfield, which is more than fair, given the in-division up-charge and Guerrero's defensive shortcomings. I would be incredibly reluctant to do this, but if the Jays told me Guerrero is mine if I include Dominguez, I'd buckle and give them Dominguez, but only Rumfield and Warren are going with him.

2. Get Tanner Scott from the Marlins

   1. This will be a bidding war, and the Yankees need relief pitching. I would be willing to trade Brock Selvidge (a solid SP prospect who is a bit banged up right now) and Roderick Arias. Those are building block pieces a rebuilding team can wait for; the Yankees can't wait, and should deal them now for good help.

3. Go get Michael Kopech from the White Sox

   1. They will put a high price tag on him, and they also desperately need a rebuild. They'll want a huge upside pitcher and maybe a couple of pieces whose star has dropped a bit, but still have potential. Pick one of Lalane or Lagrange, two pitchers with huge stuff in the low minors (and teams are begging to get) and Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira. That's a lot for a reliever, but Kopech might be a closer when Blake is done with him.

4. Trade for Mark Canha

   1. I think a middle infield prospect, like Jared Serna, is a fair return for someone like this.

The Yankees would get offensive firepower, a versatile platoon guy, and they'd re-shape the bullpen with moves like this. Vladito is a tad aspirational, but the pieces are here to make it happen if the Jays are willing to move him. The roster changes this would cause would make the Yanks a potential World Series champion. This is a template for what I would consider an A+ Trade Deadline.

Alan B. asks: With Brian Cashman creating this mess, can you say that you honestly trust him to make deals to not just try to fix this roster, without guttiing the farm system?

Be fair, Alan; it takes a village to create a mess like the one before us. We can argue about chicken or the egg all day, but I maintain (maybe stubbornly), that Cashman isn't even in the top-3 of the problems facing this team. From a process perspective, I think Cashman generally uses the Trade Deadline effectively to make significant additions to the roster, and his process for those trades is generally sound (you can find outliers, but that's true of any professional with a track record as long as Cashman's).

Can he do it without gutting the farm system? That depends on your definition of "gutting." The Yankees have a tight window for contending. This is exactly when you use your farm system to improve the big league roster for a 2-3 year period. Yes, that will put pressure on player development, scouting, and the amateur draft/international signing group to add talent to the farm over the next 1-2 years, but that's where this roster stands. Frankly, given that the Yankees have NEVER tanked under Cashman as EVERY other team in contention over the last 10 years has, it's impressive that the Yankees have regularly been able to create value from the minor leagues, mostly from trades, but also at the big league level over the same timespan. As fans, we pay a lot of attention to the teams' struggles since the pandemic, but I think many of us lose sight of the context in which that performance has taken place. Few GMs could have accomplished that feat. And let's be honest: no one else has without tanking first, Dodgers included (and they have just one World Series to show for it, 2020, the flukiest season in recent history).