Could Rafael Montero Be A Guy in the Bullpen?

by Domenic Lanza

February 20, 2026

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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Last week, it was announced that the Yankees had signed Rafael Montero to a minor league deal.

It was met with a justifiable shrug by most, if not all, myself included. And at this point, you are likely asking “Why should it not?” After all, he pitched for three organizations in 2025, and was almost a perfectly replacement-level middle reliever.

Let’s see what that looks like:

60.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 5.5 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 4.48 ERA (94 ERA+), 4.13 FIP (100 FIP-)

Yup! That’s worth 0.1 fWAR. Or, if you prefer, -0.2 bWAR. If you look under the hood, you might see a pretty solid 48.4 GB% and 3.58 xERA, and point out that his 62.5% LOB screams ‘unlucky.’ Yet these numbers aren’t too far off of his career norms, and his low-low .242 BABIP and sky-high walk rate don’t suggest he’s a secret star.

So, why the heck am I writing about him?

Two reasons: one, it’s a slow time for news, and the Yankees do need bullpen depth. But, more importantly - and more interestingly - this:

That walk rate is abominable, to be sure. Everything else looks pretty darn good, if not great.

Montero has velo, gets people to chase, racks up whiffs, avoids barrels, and keeps the ball on the ground. Matt Blake has worked quite well with older, experienced pitchers, including Tim Hill, Fernando Cruz, Luke Weaver, and Ian Hamilton. It isn’t like he’s batting 1.000 - but he has coaxed positive value out of similarly discarded arms.

Put it all together, and that’s enough to pique my interest in the early days of Spring Training.