by EJ Fagan
December 31, 2023
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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2023 was an awful year to be a Yankee fan. The team wasn’t just bad, it was boring and frustrating. I think 2024 is going to be a better year. I’m going to make a few regular predictions for 2024, plus two “bold predictions” that probably won’t happen, but could.
Aaron Judge Wins Most Valuable Player
Shohei Ohtani only lost the 2022 MVP Award because Aaron Judge had arguably the best year ever. Judge was set to give Ohtani another run for his money in 2023 before he ran into the Dodger Stadium wall, hitting .291/.410/.674 on June 2nd. Even after returning hobbled from the injury, Judge still hit .245/.408/.557, good enough to win MVP against non-Superhumans, although his defense clearly suffered. His Statcast page is mouth-watering:
With the $700 million man shot into the National League, Judge has a clear lane to win his second MVP Award. His competition includes guys like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jose Ramirez, Julio Rodriguez and Adley Ruschman, all of whom were 5-6 fWAR players in 2024. Judge matched their fWAR in just 100 games.
In fact, Judge’s prime competition for the award might be Juan Soto. Soto could put up 7+ fWAR easily, especially if his defense improves on a competitive team. More importantly though, Judge and Soto will provide excellent lineup protection for each other. Both are on base machines, making it difficult to pitch around either player. It’s hard to project Judge to improve on his insane 2022-2023 performance, but he’s never been paired with an elite hitter.
Giancarlo Stanton is a Part-Time Player by June
Now for a pessimistic take. Giancarlo Stanton has been one of the worst regular MLB hitters since mid-2022. The Yankees have tried playing him in the field, but it hasn’t helped. Stanton is old, slow and seemingly unwilling to try new things. The old sports cliche still stands: Father Time is undefeated.
Stanton continued to receive regular playing time in 2023 because the Yankees had no one else to play and little to lose. Both conditions should change in 2024. The additions to Verdugo, Soto, and Grisham give the Yankees a surplus at OF/DH for the first time in forever, and players like LeMahieu, Pereira and Wells could take some DH time. I’d go as far to say that the Yankees are better off without Stanton against right-handed pitchers.
I expect the Yankees to give Stanton the opportunity to prove he is still an effective major league hitter in 2024. He might bat a bit farther down in the order, helped by the Yankees’ newfound depth, but he’ll play most games. The Yankees have $98 million left to pay him over the next four years after all. By June, I expect him to adopt some version of my plan, where he plays against the weak half of right-handed batters and most lefties. I don’t expect them to release or trade him, although I wouldn’t be shocked to see some IL shenanigans.
Nestor Cortes Bounces Back. Carlos Rodon Does Not.
Cortes never got going in 2023. He went to the World Baseball Classic, got injured, and then was rushed back to the majors to fill a hole in the Yankee rotation. He looked out of shape and had trouble deeper into games. In retrospect, it shouldn’t have been surprising that he injured his shoulder.
I expect Cortes to return to Spring Training healthy in shape and motivated. Cortes is entering his arbitration years and age-29 season. It’s his time to make most of the money that he will make in his career. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him sign an extension with the Yankees, but he’ll have to show that he still has it first.
I’m much more concerned about Carlos Rodon. His 2023 Statcast page is just awful:
Despite being around for a long time, Rodon has a surprisingly short track record. Before the Giants fixed him in 2021, Rodon was a high-3s, low-4s ERA pitcher. As a two-pitch guy, Rodon stands on a real knife’s edge. If both pitches aren’t working well, batters will sit on the bad one and hit it out of the park. Combine that with a serious injury and his age and I’m not sure we’re ever going to see Rodon get Cy Young votes. He might end up closer to a high-3s ERA, but the Yankees signed Rodon to be an ace behind Cole.
2024 is the Year that the Rays Fail
How have we not gotten a Moneyball-style book on the Rays of the 2010s and 2020s? They’ve lost top executives, reinvented themselves several times and somehow continued to be one of the top teams in the AL East the whole time.
But they’ve taken a lot of hits over the last six months. Wander Franco is probably gone forever. Shane McClanahan will miss the entire season with Tommy John. Tyler Glasnow is a Dodger. Yandy Diaz probably isn’t going to hit .330/.410/.522 (!) in 2024. The Rays held their roster together with chewing gum and duct tape last year even with all of those guys. I think we’ll not only see the team stumble during the season, but also sell off more of their veterans like Diaz, Aaron Civale, Zachs Eflin and Littell, Pete Fairbanks and Brandon Lowe. They’ll be back, but will need to rebuild first.
The Yankees Win the American League East
The Rays will take a step back. The Red Sox are crying uncle. The Blue Jays have a surprisingly old pitching staff, and are going to miss Matt Chapman. The AL East isn’t going to be as competitive as usual next year.
The real competition for the Yankees will be the Baltimore Orioles. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Ruschman are going to be pains in our behind for a long time. Jackson Holliday may join them. Their bullpen remains elite. The Orioles didn’t win 102 games last year by accident. The Yankees have 20 games to make up on them.
That said, a lot of Orioles players had career years in 2023. Kyle Bradish magicked his way to a 2.83 ERA; expect his 2024 to look more like his 3.82 xERA. Ditto (x5) for John Means, whose 2.66 ERA looks conspicuous against a 4.73 xERA. The Orioles will be competitive, but good old fashioned regression to the mean will knock a lot of wins off their 2024 total.
On the other hand, regression will help the 2024 Yankees. Cortes, Rizzo, Trevino and Volpe are all set to improve next year when healthy and not rookied, and I think there’s at least some improvement left out of LeMahieu and Stanton. The group of Verdugo, Soto and Grisham will be a massive upgrade over the disaster that was the 2023 Yankees outfield and DH spots. I also expect the Yankees to add at least one starting pitcher in January. Finally, I think that one or two of Dominguez, Pereira, Peraza, Volpe or Cabrera will emerge as strong MLB hitters next season.
I’m actually most concerned about the 2024 bullpen. I’ll offer extended thoughts in its own post, but I wonder if 2024 is the year that the Yankees bullpen success collapses. The Yankees need to once again pull an Ian Hamilton or Clay Holmes out of their hat to remain competitive, and right now their only candidates are Victor Gonzalez, Luis Gil and Cody Morris.
Goodbye 2023
Thank you all for reading this blog/newsletter in 2023. I love sitting down to write and podcast about baseball, but it would fill silly if no one was reading. Please check out my podcast if you haven’t. 2024 is shaping up for be a big year for me professionally and personally, and I think it will be a fun time to watch baseball in the Bronx. I wish you and your family a Happy New Year.
