Scouting Report: Xavier Rivas

By Andy Singer

November 29th, 2025

Photo Credit: Xavier Rivas, Courtesy of Instagram

Background

This is the start of a series of scouting reports you'll see from me this off-season. I initially planned to write about Xavier Rivas a bit later this off-season, but longtime reader, Alan B., asked specifically about Rivas a few weeks back, so I decided to bump up this formal scouting report by a bit.

When I first watched Rivas early this summer, I really hadn't read anything about him. I knew that he was one of a bevy of senior signs in the 2024 draft, picks in most years that can be best characterized as guys with high-level college experience who can fill out an organization cheaply. While that might well be true, teams often pick guys like this because they see something they like, and while they know that it's a lottery ticket, usually guys like this have one or more scouts or analysts thumping the table for some characteristic a guy shows. Once I understood Rivas' background, the traits Yankee scouts and analysts liked became apparent.

Rivas was a 16th round pick out of Ole Miss in 2024. As noted above, he was a "Senior Sign" coming off of Tommy John Surgery in February 2024 after coming out of a preseason intrasquad game. Rivas had shown strong strikeout stuff and an advanced change-up during his Junior season in his first year at Ole Miss and was expected to be a key cog in their rotation during his Senior season until his UCL threw a wrench in that plan. As a guy who played Junior College ball during his first two years of eligibility, a good Senior season would have been key to raising Rivas' draft profile. Instead, Rivas lasted until late, and the Yankees drafted him with little fanfare.

Surely, the Yankees took a bet on the southpaw's strong strikeout numbers and standout change-up, something the Yankees look for from a developmental perspective. He was also a large body, someone with a classic starter build, which is always desirable.

Initial Scouting Report

My initial scouting report really focused on Rivas' starts at low-A Tampa soon after he played some rehab games down in Rookie ball coming off of TJS. Those were the games I watched initially and those for which I had some Statcast data to line up my thoughts on what I saw. The below is a summary of my thoughts in the early-mid summer with some statistics.

Rivas has a strong presence on the mound. He's listed at 6'4", 235 pounds, and his body has good composition at that size. Rivas repeats his delivery well, and has solid extension down the mound. His delivery has a bit of effort, but again, his extension and release points are consistent from pitch-to-pitch. Rivas is a 4-pitch guy, and my take on his delivery is backed up by the data we have on his release points:

The only pitch Rivas drops down a bit for is his sinker, interestingly. However, Rivas' core pitches are his 4-seamer, slider, and change-up.

The change-up was Rivas' only true plus pitch in my early looks at him. The change had fantastic shape and deception, coming from the same slot as his fastball with significant drop and fade with good velocity separation off of Rivas' fastball. As you'll see below, he didn't have nearly enough command or control of the pitch at low-A Tampa, but the pieces are there for a devastatingly good pitch.

Here are the raw numbers from Rivas' low-A appearances:

Hitters rarely touched his change and swung through the pitch more than half of the time. The spin rate is absolutely elite, and every characteristic is what you want from a change-up. The location, on the other hand...

I'm thrilled that the highest concentration of pitches is down, but there's a lot of ugly there in location.

The raw pitch metrics on Rivas' slider are below average, but here we see emerging command and location to both sides of the plate:

The pitch performed as well as the change-up did in low-A, and the pitch is certainly more than usable in terms of shape and overall location, but there is nothing standout about it such that I can project it as he moves up the ladder.

Rivas' fastballs are a problem in low-A. Rivas has below-average velocity, even as a lefty. Rivas' pitches seem to jump more than the numbers would indicate, with solid life entering the zone and there is definitely some deception to Rivas' delivery just based on the swings batters take in the box. However, at low-A, Rivas' 4-seam is awful, and it really only plays at the tippy-top of the zone. It is not really playable at sub-91 MPH. The two-seamer pairs well with the change-up and slider, but only Rivas can nibble around the edges with it. Otherwise, both fastballs can be hit hard with regularity.

Watching Rivas, I couldn't shake the feeling that there was more in the tank. The Yanks clearly had him on a short leash as a guy that was recovering from TJS. He threw a lot of sub-70 pitch outings and his velocity really fluctuated from outing-to-outing. Once I understood that Rivas was a guy in his first appearances back from TJS, what I was seeing made a lot of sense. He looked like a guy returning from TJS in every way; from fluctuating velocity, to command that appeared and disappeared just as quickly, I realized that I wasn't getting a full picture of who Rivas really was. You could see some of the evidence of emerging command in the pitch maps above, but you could also see the real struggles that existed as well.

Rivas' roller-coaster 4-seam line chart reinforces the idea that Rivas was a guy working to build back to full strength:

Rivas' efforts to rebuild were unfortunately reflected in his numbers at low-A, producing a horrid 5.80 ERA. From a guy with SEC experience, those are grounds for release unless we understand that this amounted to a developmental stop that included injury rehab. With that in mind, I graded what I saw in the early and mid-summer, but I resolved to watch Rivas again later to get a fuller picture.

Initial Grades

Here's how I graded Rivas based on what I saw at low-A:

4-seam - 30+ | 2-seam - 35 | Slider - 40+ | Change-Up - 60 | Command - 35

There was clearly something to work with when looking at Rivas' secondary offerings, but the fastballs were consistently bad, and only flashed below-average. I really hoped I'd see a different Xavier Rivas as the season finished off, because I liked his overall delivery and demeanor on the mound. Rivas looked like a guy that was determined to get every ounce out of what he had on the mound, but he just couldn't quite put the pieces together.

Follow-Up Scouting Report

I'm glad that I didn't give up on Rivas. I wish that I had Statcast numbers for Rivas in the late-summer, because he was a different guy. Rivas surprisingly made his last 5 starts at high-A Hudson Valley, and the results couldn't have been much better: 1.23 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 2.8 H/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.784 WHIP. The Yankees took the training wheels completely off. Whereas Rivas was making short starts at low-A, the Yankees routinely let him throw 90+ pitches at high-A, and you could just see that he was pitching instead of trying to get his work in.

Rivas' velocity had started to tick back up into the 90-92 MPH range in his last outing or two in Tampa after dipping to 89-90 MPH in July. Rivas continued to maintain his velocity at high-A where it fluctuated at low-A. Again, we don't have Statcast numbers for high-A, but my eyes tell me that Rivas was more 91-93 MPH during his last 5 starts. Just a bit more velocity helped all of Rivas' other stuff play up, as hitters were utterly bewildered by both his change-up and slider.

To understand what I'm getting at, here's some highlights of a September start against Greensboro in which Rivas pitched 5.1 innings with 10 K's and just 1 hit allowed:

The above outing is a good representation of what Rivas looked like while pitching for Hudson Valley. He pitched aggressively with intent. He threw his fastball confidently, and it again showed more life than I'm sure the raw numbers would indicate. Rivas worked the slider to both sides of the plate to both lefties and righties, and it looked a bit sharper at Hudson Valley than it had in Tampa. Lastly the change-up, which was easily plus at Tampa, flashed 70+ in my looks at him in Hudson Valley.

The guy I saw late last season was a worthy guy to have around.

Late Season Grades

Most of Rivas' grades shifted upwards once he got to high-A:

4-seam - 40 | 2-seam - 40+ | Slider - 45 | Change-Up - 65 | Command - 35+

Rivas still doesn't have good fastballs, and I think they would be hit hard in the high minors in their current form, but they are far closer to playable than they were when Rivas was clearly building arm strength earlier in the summer. The slider is a very usable pitch, particularly when Rivas commands it well. The change-up remains an absolute knockout, one that flashed an extra grade of life at its best at high-A. The real test will be to see if Rivas can come back next year with similar or better stuff while continuing to grow his pitch sequencing, mix, and command. Sequencing and command could help make the fastballs more playable.

Conclusion

Rivas is a much more interesting prospect than I ever expected to review, which is partly why I pushed his scouting report to the front of the pile. I don't want to compare the two (at all), but the sentiment is similar to how I felt when I dug into Cam Schlittler the previous off-season. I don't want anyone to project Rivas similarly, but I think Rivas is similarly flying under the radar, and he might be primed for brighter lights despite humble beginnings.

Rivas' projection depends seriously on velocity. He's not a Nestor Cortes who can get by on pure deception and guile; he needs to throw just hard enough to get at all of his other pitches. Rivas projects as a big leaguer if he can get his fastball to live at 93-94, a skill that is easier than ever to train now. When I watch Rivas' delivery, even without getting all of the angles I'd like in-person, I can see very clear areas of inefficiency where Rivas could get some easy velocity gains. I'm sure the Yankees noted the same (and more) in their reviews of his college and pro tape. 2025 was about getting healthy again; we'll see what the Yankee development staff does with him this off-season into next year. Whatever you think about the Yankees' development program, other front offices around the league publicly acknowledge that the Yankees are among the best in baseball at pitch design and helping pitchers gain velocity safely.

The last part there is key; Rivas already has one TJS under his belt, so keeping his arm healthy is paramount. If Rivas can add velocity while remaining healthy, there is real helium here for his prospect status. Rivas' delivery is reasonably clean and simple and he has a big, strong body that typically allows guys to build up to a strong, starting caliber innings count. Rivas already has a feel for striking guys out, but I think the command will continue to grow given his athleticism and simple delivery mechanisms, particularly as he gets further away from TJS. I love Rivas' demeanor on the mound, and think he's the type to get everything he can out of his talent.

With another tick or two of velocity, I think Rivas has a shot to move quickly through the minors with a projection as a back of the rotation lefty that should be able to eat innings. Without added velocity, I'm not sure he ever gets a cup of coffee even as a lefty relief arm. He's a high-variance prospect, but I'm leaning more towards the 4/5 starter projection with some potential for more given the additional life his fastball gets and the way he hides the ball through his delivery.

Given Rivas' experience in the SEC, I think he could rise quickly through the minors in 2026 with a velocity bump into the 92-93 MPH range. If that happens, look for Rivas in 2027 at the MLB level. If it doesn't...well, he still has that wipeout change-up, so he might still put up good numbers. I just can't project him as a big leaguer without more velocity, but I'm sure there's more there with a good build-up program, as there's low-hanging fruit there in his delivery.