Five Thoughts After One Month of Yankees Baseball

As good as it gets.

By EJ Fagan

April 30th, 2025

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The following post comes from EJ Fagan's Substack, Baseball Is Life. It is shared with permission.

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31 games are in the books. The Yankees are winning a lot of them. While its still early, we have a large enough sample to say some things.

Aaron Judge is Still the GOAT

Eventually, Aaron Judge will decline. They all do eventually. After he looked a little lost at the beginning of the season, the voice in the back of my head was wondering if he was showing his mortality.

But no, he’s still a Baseball God:

If you dig into the numbers, you see a pretty clear story. Judge started a little bit off his game, probably due to the WBC. He hit .125 through the first two series with 11 strikeouts in 25 plate appearances. Since the home opener, he hit .287/.431/.690 with a crazy .503 xwOBA and 24% strikeout rate. Incredible.

The Yankees Starters Are Covering Up for an Awful Bullpen

The team has the best starting pitching in the major leagues by fWAR even after a failed Luis Gil experiment. Between Yankees starters going deep into games* and the blowout wins, the Yankees haven’t had to stress test their bullpen yet.

• *Even though it feels like they are going deep, Yankees starters are pretty much in the middle of the pack in innings pitched this year. I wonder if we’re seeing a bit of a pro-starter trend after two decades of more relief pitching. Will have to run the numbers later.

Even still, the Yankees bullpen has been real shaky. Doval, Cruz and Bednar looks real shaky. Tim Hill and Brent Headrick are overused and playing over their heads. The whole thing is a house of cards that will fall down when the starters go through a bad two weeks.

They need help. A lot of help. It can’t wait until the trade deadline. They need to start trading for the next group of Tim Hill-like pilot projects as soon as teams are willing to shake them loose. And prepare to completely remake the bullpen when the real deadline market opens up.

The Rest of the American League is Real Mid

The Yankees have won 20 games. The Rays have kept pace with 18 games, but have a run differential of a .500 team. The rest of the AL East is below .500. The Red Sox started so bad that they fired most of their coaching staff.

The other divisions aren’t much better. No one in the AL Central is over .500. The most talented team, the Royals, is 12-19. The Athletics are leading the AL West with a negative run differential and half a roster of replacement players. The Astros are in last place despite Yordan Alvarez doing his best Judge impression.

The National League is just much stronger right now. The Padres, Braves, Cubs and Dodgers are all fielding excellent teams, and I’m starting to believe in the Reds. Luckily, the Yankees only need to beat one of them in the playoffs. They’re currently at a 1 in 6 chance to win the World Series on Fangraphs, behind only the Dodgers.

Anthony Volpe Should Play Short When He’s Healthy

Jose Caballero is a fun player. On top of all the great pest stuff, his .713 OPS has been a huge boon for the team. His defense at shortstop has been great.

The problem is that it’s all fake:

Caballero’s batted ball luck is unsustainable. He’s historically posted xwOBAs pretty close to his actual wOBA. Under the hood, he’s been one of the worst hitters in the major leagues.

Compare that page to the hot mess that was Anthony Volpe’s 2025 season:

Other than the defense, Volpe was a far superior hitter in every way. He was still a bad hitter, but tiers above Caballero. If his defense returns to his 2023-2024 form, there isn’t really much of an argument for Caballero. And I still think there’s a world where Volpe is a significantly better hitter than his MLB career so far.

I know, it feels like Caballero is really good. But let me remind everyone: the Rays gave him up for Everson Peireira.

If Volpe comes back and struggles, George Lombard Jr. is now at Triple-A after slashing .313/.400/.571 with a 21% strikeout rate as the youngest hitter in Double-A by a year. Oh, and his best quality his shortstop defense.

The Yankees Are Auditioning Trade Bait

Between the extra starters, Jasson Dominguez and maybe Anthony Volpe, the Yankees are probably going to have MLB-ready chips to deal this summer. But for who?

They aren’t giving up any of those guys for a relief pitcher not named Mason Miller. Barring injuries they don’t need a starter. I have trouble seeing them replacing Giancarlo Stanton, Trent Grisham or Austin Wells. That leaves third base as the obvious place for an upgrade.

There are some interesting names at third that could be available at the deadline, in part because so many teams are underperforming expectations. A quick scan of rosters: Isaac Paredes, Nolan Gorman, Royce Lewis, Josh Jung, Yoan Moncada and Alec Bohm could all be availale. But none of those guys are top tier prospect type trades.

But one player stands out. I’m going to call my shot. Munetaka Murakani has been amazing, but the White Sox only signed him for two years. They would be dumb not to sell high. Maybe they take Ryan McMahon’s contract in return for a better MLB return.

The dude has been a legitimate monster at the plate, despite having some of the worst swing and miss in the majors. Even the defense at third has been decent. He and Rice would make a great Aaron Judge sandwich. And even if he comes down a lot, he’s way better than McMahon.

I don’t know what a year and a half of Murakami would cost, but I don’t think it would be earth-shatteringly expensive. There aren’t a ton of playoff contenders who need a third baseman. He’s got some major strikeout risk. His numbers will probably come down a bit before the deadline. A package centered around Will Warren or Elmer Rodriguez doesn’t seem crazy.