Fun with Projections 2026

By Mike Whiteman March 22, 2026

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I’m back at it again, using projected WAR to predict the winners and losers in 2026. It's a fun annual post I look forward to.

The projections that I use are Depth Charts from Fangraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/). This system combines the player projections from the well regarded ZiPS and Steamer projections, and an allocation of playing time by Fangraphs staff. Like the past few of years, I used the projections to add wins to each team starting from replacement level (which baseball-reference.com states to be 48 wins). How accurate are these projections? Here is last year's article for those keeping score:

https://www.startspreadingthenews.blog/post/fun-with-projections-2025 Things I got right: Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox were pretty spot on. Cleveland and Detroit win totals were accurate to the number Things I got wrong: Baltimore, Minnesota, and Atlanta really underperformed. Here's how things look for 2026:

As in every year I've done this exercise, a look these standings indicate that the wins and losses don’t really add up, and basically the overall records are a bit better than they really will be. That being said, I still think we can draw some conclusions from this exercise: 1. The Dodgers (surprise) on paper are clearly the best team in all of baseball. 2. The Yankees, despite seemingly "running it back" look among the class of the American League. Baltimore projects to bounce back from their disappointing 2025. 3. The AL East could be a real dogfight. Any of four teams could take it. The NL East also looks interesting. 4. The Tigers have done a good job of putting together a team to make a run in what may be Tarik Skubal's last season with the club. 5. The Braves are another bounce-back candidate. 6. I think the Rockies and the Nationals will be really, really bad this year. Should be a fun season! Yankees Opening Day is Wednesday, and right now I'm happy my family got Netflix over my objections. Enjoy the season!