Jordan Montgomery Makes Too Much Sense

by EJ Fagan

March 21, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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We have a new rumor. The Yankees and Jordan Montgomery are talking again. I think Montgomery makes a ton of sense if he’s willing to take a low-AAV, long-term contract.

Some analysis earlier this week on MLB Trade Rumors made a couple of points. Unlike Snell and Chapman, Montgomery has some reason to avoid a short-term deal as he would be subject to a qualifying offer if he opted out after the 2024 season.

Similarly, we know that the reason why the Yankees couldn’t match up with Blake Snell is that the luxury tax made it costly for them to sign anyone to a short-term, high-AAV deal. I suggested hacking the system a little bit to pay Snell in 2024 but encourage him to opt out, but even that plan only got his AAV down to $25 million.

The Yankees might be able to get Montgomery for a lot cheaper.

I think Montgomery is still a free agent because he got a little cocky. He (and Scott Boras) saw the big money that Ohtani and Yamamoto got this offseason. Montgomery reportedly wanted to top Aaron Nola’s $172 million guarantee.

$172 million for Montgomery was always an insane demand. I like Jordan Montgomery a lot, but as a mid-rotation starter. Check out his 2023 Statcast page:

Montgomery’s pitching run value, a combination of ERA and innings pitched, was elite. Only 7% of starters were better. However, his underlying stats are pretty average. Montgomery had an average xERA, average good contact rate, average swinging strike rate, and below average batting average against. He made up for some of the contact with a strong walk rate, but the picture overall is pretty clear: Montgomery is probably a 4.00 ERA pitcher. Indeed, his xERA has been remarkably consistent since returning from Tommy John in 2020: 3.90, 4.06, 4.00, 3.98.

That’s a good pitcher! The Yankees sure could have used a 4.00 ERA pitcher last year. He could be a huge bonus over innings from Clark Schmidt and whomever ends up as the 5th starter. Montgomery could be a real source of stability for the Yankees.

However, 4.00 ERA 3rd-4th starters do not earn $172 million. Heck, Marcus Stroman, just two years older than Montgomery, just signed a $37 million deal after his worst ERA in years, 3.95.

Here are some recent comparable contracts for 4.00-ish ERA players:

• Chris Bassitt, 3 years, $63 million

• Kevin Gausman, 5 years, $110 million

• Yu Darvish, 6 years, $108 million

• Joe Musgrove, 5 years, $100 million

• Nathan Eovaldi, 4 years, $68 million

• Anthony Desclafani, 3 years, $36 million

• Kodai Senga, 5 years, $75 million

• Shota Imanaga, 4 years, $53 million

• Jose Berrios, 7 years, $131 million
  

You get the point. A few of these guys were better, younger or both than Montgomery. None of them were going to get $172 million.

It’s clearly a buyers market for pitching right now. There isn’t likely a ton of demand for Montgomery’s services. I don’t think that he’s going to have to quite settle for an Eovaldi or Imanaga deal, but Montgomery is going to have to significantly lower his asking price to get a deal.

Montgomery wants to maximize his career earnings. He needs a big contract now, while he is still young and coming off two strong seasons. The Yankees would love to add a pitcher, but at a low AAV. I think something like DJ LeMahieu’s deal: 6 years, $90 million makes sense for both sides. That’s a $15 million AAV, or $32 million in 2024 including the luxury tax. I don’t think Montgomery is going to get a better deal from anyone else.