by EJ Fagan
November 2024
***
NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
***
You know the deal. Juan Soto is about to get the biggest free agent contract ever. He wants to break $45 million in AV without any deferred money or other qualifiers. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $600 million over 13 years.
That’s a lot of money, even for a superstar on the Yankees. If a $600 million contract goes wrong, it could destroy the franchise for a decade. That said, I not only think Juan Soto is not only worth $600 million, but is a no-brainer at that price.
I don’t need to tell the story of Juan Soto to anyone who is reading this blog. A 13 year deal will cover his ages 26-39 seasons. He’s coming off maybe his best season yet. Let’s just stare at the Statcast page one more time, like we’re staring at a famous painting in an art museum:
Done staring? Okay, I need more time too. It’s beautiful.
Let’s make the case that Soto is worth $600 million. I’ll divide it up into a few questions.
Is Soto that good?
Yes. Sort of.
2024 was not a fluke. Soto has been one of the best hitters in the majors since the day he arrived. He added a lot of power, in part due to hitting in Yankee Stadium and in part due to hitting next to Aaron Judge.
But, you might be a little underwhelmed by his fWAR total during his career:
2019: 5.5 fWAR
2020: 2.5 fWAR (47 games)
2021: 6.8 fWAR
2022: 3.7 fWAR
2023: 6.0 fWAR
2024: 8.1 fWAR
Two things held down his career fWAR. First, he didn’t hit for a ton of power before hitting 41 home runs in 2024. He was an on base machine, but was merely a consistent top 5 hitter in baseball rather than the monster we got to watch. Second, and more importantly, his defense suffered. More on that later.
How much is a 5-6 win player worth? According to Fangraphs, well above $45 million. An 8 win player? $65 million. I think a $600 million contract might be a little too out there for 2019-2023 Soto, but he took his game to another level to easily earn that kind of money.
At 26 years old, we should expect peak production from Soto for at least 3-4 more years, and possibly longer. He could make back a lot of the cost of his contract very quickly, and would be a risk to exercise any opt-outs to earn even more money.
Will Soto Age Well?
I think Soto is as good of a bet to age well as any player in baseball.
Why do players age poorly? I’d point to a few factors:
Reliance on raw athleticism. Players who need to be fast, agile or quick-twitchy, which tends to fade quickly. A lot of these players were a little messy at their peak, but got by because they were so crazy athletic. My knees started hurting as soon as I turned 30. See: Jacoby Ellsbury, Javier Baez, Joey Gallo.
Players without a lot of raw athleticism. Big, slow 1st base types often break down because of their size and weight. See: Anthony Rizzo, Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujols, Jason Giambi, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Cabrera etc.
Disinterest. Some players stop putting in the immense effort needed to play baseball at a high level once they get paid. See: Anthony Rendon, Aaron Hicks.
Beat up middle infielders and catchers. It’s tough when you’re diving and blocking dozens of times per night. See: Every catcher not named Posada, every shortstop not named Jeter.
I don’t think Soto sets off any alarm bells here. His strengths are his eye, plate discipline, balance, and power. He’s big, but not too big. He plays a defensive position that won’t beat him up too much. He clearly loves every second of playing baseball.
In fact, I think there’s a pretty good chance that Soto hits more like his 2024 season for the first half decade than his first five seasons. As we all know, he’s young! Young players often take time to add power. For example, Miguel Cabrera hit just (just!) .309/.381/.541 through his age-25 season, then exploded to .330/.412/.578 from 26-33. Hitters add muscle and wisdom as they age. Even Aaron Judge didn’t find his peak form until he was 30.
That said, I think we should be a little bit concerned about the future of Soto defensively. He wasn’t great in 2024 and was way worse in some of his previous seasons. He’ll stick in the outfield for a bit, but will eventually have to move to DH or 1st base. To make matters worse, Aaron Judge is in a similar boat.
Does He Fit the Team?
I don’t think it matters.
For pretty much any normal big free agent, this question is enormously important. You expect a long term contract to end ugly, so you sign a guy to fill the team’s needs in the short term and hope that he’s still good in the medium term. It’s counterproductive to add a bunch of players who won’t be good once your window opens up.
But the calculus is different for someone so young. Soto will be a productive player through the Yankees current window, their next window, and maybe even the window after that. This is the reason why it was so frustrating to see the Yankees pass on Manny Machado and Bryce Harper a few years ago.
Soto does put the Yankees in a bit of an awkward spot where both he and Judge should probably play right field. But that will eventually work itself out, such as when Giancarlo Stanton no longer occupies the DH spot. 13 years is a long time.
Does He Bring in Extra Money?
I’ve seen some reports that I don’t really believe about Shohei Ohtani bringing in well over a hundred million dollars in revenue on his own in 2024. But, whatever the number, he brings some large amount of money to the Dodgers to help pay for his massive contract.
Soto doesn’t have Ohtani’s unique fame, but I think the Yankees can monetize him above and beyond his on-field contributions. He’s fun. He’s a star. He’s young. He sells jerseys.
More importantly, he’s going to be an all-time Hall of Famer. The Yankees need legends to keep the myth of The New York Yankees alive. Aaron Judge is a legend. Gerrit Cole may go down that way. But I’m pretty sure that Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells, Jasson Dominguez and Luis Gil are supporting players at best. Juan Soto ensures that the Yankees have one of the biggest names in the sport on their roster for well over a decade.
If "At 26 years old, we should expect peak production from Soto for at least 3-4 more years, and possibly longer" is true, why then offer 13 years? Am I missing something?
Quote from Hal about the Yankees' meeting with Soto: Four times in a 14-minute scrum Steinbrenner said “no idea” in regards to Soto’s wishes. He did not promise that Soto would end up a Yankee but said, “We’ll be in the mix.”
That doesn't inspire confidence about Hal's desire to sign Soto.
Will Soto Age Well?
I think Soto is as good of a bet to age well as any player in baseball.
I think that he will indeed age well. the guy is a two-tool player and extraordinarily good at hitting and hitting for power.
he will be a highly valuable hitter for a decade
and during that decade his deficient defense will not much worsen, even if he remains deployed in the outfield rather than moved to the position for which he's best suited.
he already knows how to maximize his defensive abilities and how to mask his deficiencies and avoid being charged with errors.
it's also quite possible that, given great wealth and security, he'll feel obliged to improve…
I always thought, that the first magic number to really be taken seriously in re-signing/extending Soto was $47M as the AAV, beating Ohtani's. Boras already showed that AAV means more than the total amount of money in any contract, when he turned down the $440M offer from the Nationals, beating Trout's full amount of $360 - then the highest dollar amount by $80M.
The next number I thought to be taken serious was 12 - the length of the contract, at a minimum. I've floated several numbers here, and I'm floating another minimum offer here to show I'm serious - 13 years, $631M. If those numbers don't at least make them want to talk about it, I can't help yo…