Marcus Stroman for Nolan Arenado?

By Ethan Semendinger

February 9, 2025

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I started this series in December. Marcus Stroman is still a Yankee, but there may a trade brewing involving St. Louis.

Note: If you've already read my other three articles in this series from December, (Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, and Ke'Bryan Hayes) you may choose to skip the top section on Marcus Stroman.

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Looking At: Marcus Stroman

The Yankees signed Marcus Stroman to a 2-Year/$37 Million contract ahead of the 2024 season. With one of those years already in the books, they are on the hook for Marcus Stroman at an $18.5 Million salary in 2025. Stroman's contract also includes a vesting player option at an additional $18.5 Million for the 2026 season. However, it is unclear if Marcus Stroman has already met the requirements for that player option to vest.

According to some sources, like Cot's Baseball Contracts, Marcus Stroman needed to pitch 140 innings in 2024 to reach the milestone. If that is the case, then Stroman has achieved a player option for 2026, as he pitched 154.2 innings this past season.

Other sources, like Spotrac, indicate that Marcus Stroman needs to pitch 140 innings in 2025 to earn his player option for the 2026 season.

This discrepancy in reporting contract details makes it a bit difficult to parse out what the value of Marcus Stroman on the trading market could be. Thus, in this post, I will construct two trades given the variability of Stroman's worth.

All that aside, if we look at Marcus Stroman's numbers in 2024 and compare them to the prior 3 seasons, there is an obvious trend in the data: he is declining, and he is more likely than not, a league-average starting pitcher (or a little bit worse) moving forward. This can be clearly seen through looking at his ERA and ERA+:

• 2021 - 3.02 ERA, 133 ERA+ (with NYM)

• 2022 - 3.50 ERA, 119 ERA+ (with CHC)

• 2023 - 3.95 ERA, 108 ERA+ (with CHC)

• 2024 - 4.31 ERA, 95 ERA+ (with NYY)

As bad as this may look for Marcus Stroman's projections going forward, that isn't to say there isn't a market for a player like him. Over the last 4 seasons, Stroman has also displayed consistency in availability. Here are his starts and innings pitched:

• 2021 - 33 Starts, 179.0 Innings Pitched

• 2022 - 25 Starts, 138.2 Innings Pitched

• 2023 - 25 Starts, 136.2 Innings Pitched

• 2024 - 29 Starts, 154.2 Innings Pitched

So, what could a league-average (give or take) starting pitcher with 25-ish starts of 5-ish innings a piece worth on an $18 Million contract over the next year (or two)?

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Trade Target: Nolan Arenado

During this past week, it has been reported all over that the St. Louis Cardinals have reengaged with three different teams on a trade surrounding Nolan Arenado. Among those teams are the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, and, of course, the New York Yankees.

The St. Louis Cardinals- as discussed in this clip from MLB Tonight on February 7th- have walked themselves into a very difficult position with Nolan Arenado. The notion that Arenado would be traded has been suggested as the "top priority" of the Cardinals for the offseason, and yet he's still on the team with just a week (or so) to go until Spring Training begins.

With the clock ticking, this seems like a deal just waiting to happen.

But, wouldn't Arenado just be a disappointment like Josh Donaldson was back in 2022?

Not at all.

Josh Donaldson was going to his 5th team in 5 years (from 2018-2022 he played with Toronto, Cleveland, Atlanta, Minnesota, and New York [AL]). He was also coming off a tumultuous 4 years in which he was twice a hurt and a sub-1.0 bWAR player, and he was going into his age-36 season.

Meanwhile, Nolan Arenado has been on only two teams in his career, he's coming off two consistently good seasons, he has a minimal injury history, and he's going to be 34 in 2025.

Is that a perfect recipe? No. But, it is a much better backstory than the drama that Donaldson brought to the team. Arenado also brings about a much more stable foundation for third base than what the Yankees currently have situated.

Since getting traded to the St. Louis Cardinals ahead of the 2021 season, these are his stats:

• 2021: 157 Games, .255/.312/.494/.807 (119 OPS+), 151 Hits, 34 HR's, 105 RBI's, +4.0 bWAR

• 2022: 148 Games, .293/.358/.533/.891 (151 OPS+), 163 Hits, 42 HR's, 103 RBI's, +7.7 bWAR

• 2023: 144 Games, .266/.315/.459/.774 (108 OPS+), 149 Hits, 26 HR's, 93 RBI's, +2.4 bWAR

• 2024: 152 Games, .272/.325/.394/.719 (101 OPS+), 157 Hits, 16 HR's, 71 RBI's, +2.5 bWAR

However, the problem isn't necessarily Nolan Arenado's stats or performance. Everybody knows he's still more than capable to produce to be helpful. The problem is his contract. He is owed $74 Million over the next three years (2025-2027), and even worse, his CBA hit is $91.665 Million (or $30.555 Million) for the next three years.

Luckily, the Colorado Rockies are eating $5 Million (in both salary and CBA room) for both 2025 and 2026, but this leaves a lot of financial negotiations to take place.

So, how could the Yankees make a Nolan Arenado trade happen?

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The Trade:

Note: My trade proposals are not rooted in anything other than my own personal gut feeling about trade value. Please do not consider this to be anything more than a basic framework and model.

The Yankees want to stay under the highest luxury tax threshold of $301 Million for 2025. As of right now, they are on the hook for $304 Million (whoops!) according to Cot's Baseball contracts. That's a problem that would need to be fixed, in addition to adding Arenado's $25.555 Million CBA salary. However, there is a very simple way to make this all work.

Here is my proposal:

NYY TRADES: Marcus Stroman (-7.5 MTV), DJ LeMahieu (-26.4 MTV), Spencer Jones (+10.2 MTV), Will Warren (+7 MTV), and Trent Grisham (+0.6 MTV)

STL TRADES: Nolan Arenado (-16.6 MTV)

What if the Yankees told the Cardinals that they didn't have to eat any money on Arenado's deal?

Instead, they could take on the contracts of Marcus Stroman and DJ LeMahieu and buy both of them out. It sounds crazy, but it's actually favorable for both teams.

The combined guaranteed contracts of Stroman and DJ LeMahieu over the next two years equals $48.5 Million. This is actually cheaper than what Nolan Arenado is due (even with Colorado's $10 Million that they are chipping in) over the next two seasons by $500K in real cash, and by $20.5 Million over three years that Arenado is still due. It's also a CBA savings of $43.165 Million over the next three years for the Cardinals.

By trading for and releasing Stroman before the 2025 season, this also eliminates the potential for Stroman to reach his player option. He has no buy-out in his contract clause.

However, the biggest problem is DJ LeMahieu, who has 10-and-5 rights to prevent trades. So, what the Yankees front office should say is, "DJ. We have a trade in the works sending you to St. Louis. We were already planning on releasing you, and we are asking you to approve of this trade," while making it very clear that- without saying it- the Cardinals will be eating his contract and releasing him to become a free agent.

For their part in this, the Cardinals will get rewarded with Spencer Jones and Will Warren as prospects, while Trent Grisham goes in the deal (to be replaced by Everson Pereira on the Yankees) to get the Yankees under the highest CBA threshold.

It's a lot to manage, but this would give the Yankees their starting third baseman and clear just enough money on the payroll and CBA tax to have Arenado come over with no strings attached.

(For what it's worth, when running this trade through BaseballTradeValues, the Yankees get -16.6 MTV and the Cardinals get -16.1 MTV.)

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Alternatively, the Cardinals could also eat $15 Million in both 2025 and 2026, and the Yankees could keep DJ LeMahieu on their payroll, making the whole potential problem with LeMahieu a moot point.

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What do you think? Would you take this deal?