by Paul Semendinger
March 20, 2024
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When I write, I write honestly about how I see the Yankees. When I write less than optimistic perspectives, I often accompany those articles with the words, "I hope I'm wrong."
Unfortunately, these last many years, I've been right about a lot. Too much. I wish I haven't been...
I'm especially concerned about a lot of things I have written about for a while now. I'll outline a bit of that below. None of these concerns are new. Most have been festering for a long time. My concern is, if I can see these things so clearly, why can't the Yankees with all of their expertise?
The Yankees had the chance to build a unbelievably great team for the 2024 season. But, they let that chance pass them by - as they have done so many times in recent history. When the opportunities presented themselves, the Yankees couldn't, wouldn't, or didn't act.
Opening Day is next week. The Yankees do not have a number one starter. They, instead, have a collection of number two or number three starters. Number one starters were available to build a better rotation. The Yankees, for a host of reasons, didn't go after them.
The Yankees don't have a leadoff hitter.
The Yankees will most likely open the season without a third baseman.
The Yankees will head into the season, if he's healthy, by taking their fragile superstar, Aaron Judge, one who will be continually caring for an injured toe, and expect him to play centerfield well enough for a championship club, not get injured, and not wear down - all while he is already injured and worn down.
Again, if I can see these things, clearly, a guy not involved with the team, why can't the people getting paid by the team see what is clearly obvious?
Years ago, I said that the Yankees should NOT, absolutely not, re-sign D.J. LeMahieu. Those first two years he had as a Yankee were outliers, especially for a player getting older. I said he wouldn't age well. I did a study and ran an article that showed that second basemen didn't age well. Now, for the third straight year (the season hasn't even started), LeMahieu is hurt again. This is a problem in 2024 because the Yankees planned for DJ to not only be the starting third baseman, but the back-up first baseman as well. All of that and to be the team's leadoff hitter. It wasn't a good plan. There was no room for error. The Yankees were hoping that his hot month last year was who he'd be for a whole year. I think it was (and is) asking too much from him.
Since signing his new contract, over three seasons, DJ LeMahieu's OPS+ is 101. He's an average hitter - nothing more. This is the player, an average hitter who is hurt, often, that the Yankees are going into 2024 with as their hope to be the player at the top of the batting order. It's not a good plan.
For the record, even before he got hurt, I never saw Oswald Peraza as a legitimate back-up at third because he isn't a third baseman. Peraza is a shortstop. He played all of 5 games at third base in Triple-A last year. He played there not at all in Triple-A in 2022. For years I have been saying that the Yankees should be playing Peraza at second base and third base in the minor leagues. This became the smart plan especially once Anthony Volpe became the starting shortstop, because with Volpe's hold on the position, Peraza's only path to the big leagues would be at a position other than shortstop.
One argument some made for keeping Peraza at shortstop was it would make him a more valuable trade piece. How did that work out?
The Yankees, in their wisdom, usually begin experimenting with players in positions other than the ones they've always played only when they reach the Major Leagues. This is, in a word, insane.
With LeMahieu injured, the Yankees do not have a back-up first baseman. Talk among some is that Austin Wells could be the back-up first baseman. News Flash - Austin Wells has never played first base as a professional. Why do so many believe that the place for a player to try out a new position is at the big league level? If the Yankees saw Wells as a first baseman, he should have been playing there, at least sometimes, as he came through the system. Austin Wells played some first base in college, but never as a professional.
Aaron Judge is worn out already and he's played very little this spring. He's had all of 14 at bats this spring. Does anyone really believe he is healthy and just resting for the upcoming season? This is a player that said he spent all winter swinging a bat, and now that it's Spring Training, he suddenly can't or won't swing a bat. This seems like a disaster waiting to happen.
I was all for giving Judge a big contract. BUT, I warned at the time that if the Yankees let Judge's contract get in the way of getting the talent they need to make the team championship quality, then they shouldn't re-sign him. I stated that if they don't build a quality team around him, that Judge's contract would be foolish and it would help make sure that Judge will be a great Yankee who never sees the World Series. I stated that if the Yankees signed Judge, that they'd have to be willing, because of the money they had already invested in other players, and him, to exceed the luxury taxes to build that championship core. This off-season, when it came to Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and others, the Yankees let the salary tax stop them from getting players they needed. Now that Gerrit Cole is out, Judge is (continually) day-to-day, and DJ LeMahieu is hurt (again), the money the Yankees didn't spend hurts significantly. They don't have fallback options.
Some people might say that the Cole injury came out of the blue. I agree! But it wasn't a stretch, at all, to assume that LeMahieu and Judge would get hurt. They do often. And, even before Cole's injury, it was clear that the Yankees needed one more quality starting pitcher.
A smart team does not build a rotation around pitchers with huge question marks. That's what the Yankees did.
Let's be honest and very clear, Aaron Judge's contract is a reason why the Yankees didn't get other needed players. It makes no sense to put so many eggs in one basket if you're unwilling or unable to gather other eggs. The Yankees have been unwilling and unable to build the team they needed for 2024 because they stopped spending this winter, not because holes were filled, but because they felt they had spent enough. Since a significant part of the payroll is wrapped up in Judge's contract, they're doing exactly what I feared they would.
I have said that the Yankees should, when the championship window is open, trade prospects for known good and established big leaguers. One year ago, many were saying, "You can't trade Peraza." Oswald Peraza then had a bad 2023 and wasn't tradeable for any player of any quality this off-season. Now he's injured. That happens all the time.
If DJ LeMahieu, Gerrit Cole, and Aaron Judge all miss significant time, the Yankees don't have a great chance of winning anything significant. If they were seen as a 95-win team with them, what are they without them?
By the time Spencer Jones, the latest "He's going to be the greatest ever" fan heartthrob, reaches the big leagues, the championship window will probably be closed.
At what point is it fair to say that this is a franchise that could be looking at many long seasons ahead? 2024 was the year to go all in. They didn't. The season didn't start and already some of the doomsday scenarios I noted months ago are coming true.
Also, remember, for Gerrit Cole, Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, and others, when players come back from injuries, there's often a long transition process. They don't just pick-up where they left off.
So many keep saying that Jasson Dominguez will be an impact player this year. He might, but let's temper our hopes. The kid has all of 31 Major League at bats. In 109 games last year at Double-A, he batted just .254. He hit a bunch of homers in the big leagues, and has tons of talent, and he might be great, but it's far too early to tell.
It's also interesting, when Dominguez struggled as he made his way through the minors, one of the big talking points for his lack of production was, "He is young for the level he's at." Fair enough. The kid is 21-years-old. If we expect him to perform in the Major Leagues in 2024, remember, he's young for the level he's at...
I hope I'm wrong about all of this. There is hope. The A.L. East doesn't seem so strong. The American League as a whole doesn't seem great. Maybe this is the Yankees' year, but it's looking less and less likely. And that's a shame. 2024 could have been magical. I still hope it will be.
