Perspectives - July 16, 2025
- Paul Semendinger
- Jul 17
- 6 min read
By Paul Semendinger
July 16, 2025
***
The All-Star Break is the nominal halfway point in the baseball season. But, this year it is nowhere near the halfway point in the season.
The Yankees are 53 - 43. That's 96 games. With a 162 game season, that means that there are only 66 games remaining. 59% of the 2025 season is over already.
It goes too quickly.
***
Across the American League at this point, there are only seven teams with winning percentages over .500. They rank as follows:
Detroit Tigers - .608
Houston Astros - .583
Toronto Blue Jays - .573
New York Yankees - .552
Boston Red Sox - .541
Seattle Mariners - .531
Tampa Bay Rays - .515
***
For the Yankees to win 100 games this year, they will have to go 47-19 (.712). It is safe to say that the Yankees will not be winning 100 games in 2025.
For the Yankees to win 90 games, they will have to go 37-29 (.560). That seems reasonable.
Of course, since the team has been so erratic, I could also see them going 33-33 over their final 66 games which would only get them to 86 games.
***
I have to wonder if the Yankees fail to win a World Series this year if that will finally convince them that their approach has not worked.
On the other hand, while their mantra is still, "The only acceptable result is a World Series victory," when they fall short, as they have for each of the past 15 seasons, we are told to be happy the team is always over .500. It's a game of always moving the goal posts.
***
As I was reading the novel Bang the Drum Slowly by Mark Harris, originally published in 1956, I came across the following passage. This should remind many of a certain team and its manager:
"I still did not know what they (the fans) were booing at, and the paper did not know, neither, some saying one thing and some another, but I now know it was none of the things they said. It was only a lot of disgusted people wondering how a club consisting of what the Mammoths consisted of in the way of power and brains on paper only managed to be 1 1/2 games in front of the pack with time half run out. It was the same as saying, "Everything is at your fingertips..."
***
I enjoyed reading Bang the Drum Slowly. That being said, I am not going to use it as an example of great baseball literature for my college class, but like The Natural and Shoeless Joe, it was a good read. I plan to give two other novels a try: The Celebrant and For Love of the Game. If neither passes muster, I'll take the reading assignment in a different direction and provide a list of non-fiction baseball books that the students can choose from.
***
I have not seen the movie adaptation of Bang the Drum Slowly in decades, so I'll have to get the DVD soon. I recall that the baseball scenes were from actual Yankees game footage. It should be fun to watch.
***
Bang the Dum Slowly is actually the second book in a four book series. I'll probably read the entire series over time, but not right now.
I love reading about baseball, but going from one baseball novel to the next is getting a bit tedious for me. I was going to jump right in to The Celebrant, but I can't. I need a break from baseball novels. With two of my sons, I am reading the first book of Will Durant's Story of Civilization, Our Oriental Heritage. We decided to read that entire series one book each year for the next eleven years. I went back to that book after finishing Bang the Drum Slowly. (I have about 500 pages to go...)
I read a lot about baseball, but I also read about history, God and faith, leadership, motivation, and success. I also read few novels and a bit of humor. The following have been my favorite books from each of the past few years:
***
Anthony Volpe's stock has gone way down the last many weeks. The remainder of the 2025 season is going to be very telling for him. He has not proven that he can hit. He goes into long slumps. Each approach he takes seems to have limited effectiveness. But, the bigger concern, for so many, is that Anthony Volpe's defense has become problematic as have other parts of his game where he is supposed to excel, such as stealing bases. This is now his third MLB season. Rather than growing as a baseball player, he is regressing.
***
Anthony Volpe's Stolen Base Percentages By Season:
2023 = 82.7% success rate
2024 = 80.0% success rate
2025 = 58.8% success rate
***
I find the fact that Volpe's performance has so regressed to be troubling. His OPS+ at the All-Star Break was 86. That is exactly what it was in 2024. In 2023, his OPS+ was 81.
***
Austin Wells is another interesting case. His OPS+ for the past two seasons has been basically league average. (It sits at 103 this year.)
This was supposed to be the year that Volpe and Wells both broke out. They haven't.
***
More and more, I am coming to the conclusion that Run Differential is a less-than-meaningful statistic in regard to a team's success. So many people turn to it, and cite it, but in regard to the Yankees, it seems to tell a false story.
The Yankees sometimes win big. This helps give them a good run differential. It also allows people to cite their average runs scored per game as a way to claim the team is better than it really is.
Yes, the Yankees score a lot of runs. But that run scoring doesn't necessarily translate to wins. And the purpose of the game is to win.
In June, the Yankees went 13-14. It wasn't a good month.
But those who look to run differential and total runs scored might look at June differently because the Yankees out scored their opponents 110-91.
In the recent series against the Cubs, the Yankees lost two of three games, but they outscored the Cubs 14-9.
We all know about the 1960 World Series. In that series, the Yankees outscored the Pirates 55-27, but the Pirates were the World Champions.
In the end, again, the purpose is to win games. Statistics can tell a story, but they do not tell the entire story. Run differential doesn't tell the correct story. In theory it should, but in practice, it does not.
***
The other day I commented that the players in the Home Run Derby (which I didn't watch) should be actual home run hitters. I stated that Jazz Chisholm shouldn't be there. I also expressed concerns over his recent injury and then standing there trying to hit home runs. Well... Jazz hit a grand total of 3 homers. Three. The next lowest total was 15.
Having Jazz Chisholm participate in the Home Run Derby was foolish, at best.
If Jazz aggravated or hurt his ailing shoulder or altered his approach at bat by swinging for the fences, then the decision was a disaster, at best.
***
I woke up on Wednesday to learn that the All-Star Game was won with a "swing off." It seems they had a Home Run Derby to conclude a tie game. Oh boy. Here we go. I can see it now. This is the future of the game.
The more they tinker with the game, the less the game resembles the sport I initially fell in love with. First ghost runners. Now swing offs.
We'll be seeing swing offs in regular season games soon, of that I am sure. The people who run baseball just cannot leave well enough alone and they are destroying the sport bit-by-bit.
***
I never watch the All-Star Game. I am now even more glad I didn't watch the game and invest hours of my time only to see it end in a soccer-style shootout. What an absolute joke.
***
The second half begins tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see if the Yankees make big trades, small trades, good trades, or bad trades.
***
Let's Go Yankees!
I'm kicking the second half off with my annual trip to Wrigley to root on the Cubs to beat the Red Sox! Like you, I am concerned with what I have seen with Volpe. His swing is way to long (to be nice), and he is now taking his offensive issues out on the field, and he looks lost.
Hopefully over the break, he and Wells loaded up on Chicken Parm!
Give me a new #7: The two moves to first limit, has also worked out surprisingly well. Speeds up the game and encourages more aggressive base running. All good.
Scratch #7 - I think MLB switched back to 9 inning games for doubleheaders, if I'm not mistaken!
Paul - I watched last night's All Star game in its totality and found it surprisingly entertaining. The NL took a 6-0 lead, only to have the AL come back and tie it 6-6 in the bottom of the 9th. I thought the Swing Off was a gimmick that would never work, but compared to prior ASG's that ended in ties (with all the pitching on both sides used up), the Swing Off actually seemed to both simultaneously work and be entertaining.
As for the rules changes, I like all of them:
The bigger bases (and slightly reduced distances between them) has invigorated the running game.
The pitch clock has measurably sped up the game and made the game noticeably…
The Art of Fielding