Perspectives: Minor League Batting Average Matters

by Paul Semendinger

May 21, 2026

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Let's be honest, as a hitter, Austin Wells has been a huge disappointment.  We were told, as he came up, that he was going to be an outstanding Major League hitter.  That was the narrative - "The kid can hit."

As fans, we are told that, a lot, about players coming through the Yankees system.  "This guy is a future star."  

We take the so-called experts at their word.  

We shouldn't.

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I decided to do a quick analysis of some recent Yankees would-be stars as they progressed through the minor leagues. 

I decided to look at one factor - batting average.  My point of assumption here is that a good indication of whether a player will hit in the Major leagues should be based on whether or not he hit in the minors.  

Now, I know that some will consider this analysis to be lacking because I am basing my analysis on just one factor and batting average isn't the most popular metric today.  Many experts, and those who purport to be experts, believe that batting average is a relic; an old-fashioned tool of analysis.  I disagree. 

Batting average still matters.  A player needs to get hits as a minor leaguer to demonstrate that he will be able to hit in the big leagues.  

A mediocre or poor minor league batting average, to me, at least, indicates that the player will probably not have an especially productive big league career as a hitter.  If one cannot get hits against minor league pitchers, it is difficult to imagine he'll begin to get hits when facing the best pitchers in the game; those pitching in the Major Leagues.  

This analysis began with me looking at Austin Wells' minor league batting averages.  Since he hasn't hit as a Major Leaguer, I wondered how well he hit in the minors.

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When one looks at Austin Wells' batting averages across his minor league career, it is easy to see that, at least batting average wise, there wasn't much there.

His lifetime minor league batting average was only .260.  That number was actually buttressed by his performance in the lowest minors.  Wells hit .254 at Triple-A.  He batted only .248 in Double-A.  Does any of that scream, "This Guy Will Hit In The Majors"?

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As a point of comparison, the current player with the highest lifetime batting average is Luis Arraez.  It's no surprise that he has a high batting average - he also had one in the minor leagues.

Across seven minor league seasons, Arraez batted .331.  

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Yankees fans were told that Anthony Volpe would be a top hitting shortstop. 

His minor league batting average was just .260.  Again, that number was buttressed by his production in the lowest levels of the minor leagues.  Volpe batted .251 in Double-A and only .236 in Triple-A in 2022, the season before he arrived as the Yankees' shortstop.

Again, I think it's fair to look at those numbers and conclude that since he wasn't necessarily tearing the cover off the ball in AA and AAA that it was likely that he'd hit even worse when he reached the highest league.

The Yankees wanted (and still want) fans to believe that Volpe will be the next Derek Jeter.  Note, though, that Jeter was a .308 hitter in the minor leagues.  In 1994, across three levels, he batted .344.  In 1995, the season before he arrived, he batted .317 in Triple-A.  Anthony Volpe never put up numbers like that in the minor leagues.  

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How about Ben Rice?

Ben Rice is hitting in the big leagues.

Lo and behold, Rice also hit well in the Minor Leagues. He batted .294 at Triple-A, He batted .295 at Double-A. This was after batting .341 at high-A. Rice demonstrated a strong ability to get hits as he rose through the system. (Wells and Volpe did not.)

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Now, some might state that Aaron Judge's performance disproves my theory. 

Judge has a lifetime Major League batting average of .292.  His minor league batting average was .276.  

I have argued, and will continue to, that Aaron Judge is an outlier.  He is a unique ballplayer in many ways.  Aaron Judge, in so much, is the exception, not the rule.  

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How about the players with the highest batting averages in the A.L. last year?

Judge led the Major leagues in batting average last season.

The runner-up was Bo Bichette.  Bichette was a .322 minor league hitter.

Jacob Wilson was third in the league in hitting last year.  His minor league batting average was .393.  

George Springer, fourth in batting, hit .301 in the minors...

By and large, players that hit in the Major Leagues demonstrated that they could first hit the minor leagues.

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It is reasonable to note that a fair indicator (sure, not the only one) for the ability to hit in the Major Leagues is demonstrated by being able to hit in the minor leagues.  This should give pause to some fans who are eager for the next great Yankees to arrive.  

George Lombard, Jr has a lifetime .239 average across his minor league career.

Spencer Jones is a lifetime .270 minor league hitter.

Both these players might become good, or even great Major League hitters, but I'll posit that they likelihood of them becoming stars as so many believe is less likely than many suppose.

Now, of course, both players still have time to learn, especially George Lombard who is only 20 years-old.  Spencer Jones, though is 25 years-old.  He's had a lot of time to hone his craft - and he simply hasn't, at least not yet.  

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As I stated at the top, this was a quick analysis, but the initial conclusions seem to support the basic premise - before a player can be projected or assumed to be able to be a solid big league hitter, he should first demonstrate that he can hit in the minor leagues.