SSTN Mailbag: 2B, Grisham, And The Logjam!

As upsetting as it was to watch the Yankees blow an opportunity to absolutely bury the Red Sox in the AL East last weekend, it was equally nice to watch them very easily handle a sweep against a flawed, but playoff caliber team. The Yankees have generally played good baseball this week. The bullpen was very solid against the Royals, the starting pitchers all did their jobs, the offense came through when it needed to, and Aaron Judge hit a couple of balls that haven't landed yet. This week, life was good as a Yankee fan.

One of the things I've been thinking about is how good this team will be when it has everyone healthy. I think that many fans overlooked what Jazz Chisholm brings to the table when he got hurt in the middle of an early season slump, but I think his return has given the team a very different, positive look. Chisholm has plenty of pop, gobs of speed, a good attitude, and he even came back with a smarter approach at the plate. There is a league of difference between having Chisholm play versus the combination of Peraza, Reyes, and Vivas, and I don't even particularly care that 3B isn't his best position - it's still better in totality than most of the other options out there (and that includes the trade market).

Despite the coming logjam (more on that in a minute), I'm also thrilled that Giancarlo Stanton is coming back. Having a right-handed hitter with real pop gives the Yankees a lot more balance and oomph in the middle of the lineup. It's also been noted by various beat reporters that Stanton is a leader held in high regard in the clubhouse, so that's an added benefit as well.

Heck, even DJ LeMahieu has been producing, and it may not be a fluke. Overall, times are good for the Yankees. They're not perfect, and could certainly use help at the trade deadline, but I think this is a good baseball team.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about a potential option at 2B, Grisham's defense in CF, and the coming lineup logjam! Let's get at it:

John N. asks: Colorado recently inserted a familiar face into its starting lineup @ 2b that could have some value in Pinstripes. What about the NYY's reacquiring Thairo Estrada? Elite defensive 2b. Positional flexibility to play some SS, if necessary. RH bat with career EVEN splits hovering right around 100 OPS+. At a minimum a better #26 than Reyes. Also insurance for a LeMahieu fail and a natural utility IF, in the event you decide to either include Peraza in a deadline deal or risk losing him off waivers. Estrada's making $3.25m in 2025 with a mutual option in place for 2026 @ $7m (w/$750k buyout). At the 40% point of the season, the money shouldn't be a huge impediment. Net of Peraza's salary you're only taking on $1.8-$2.0m. The Yankees spill that much coffee on the clubhouse floor. I mean, wouldn't the Rockies jump at something like Estrada for Peraza, straight up? I could live with 3b Chisholm Volpe ss Estrada 2b and Rice/Goldschmidt 1b.

I love outside-the-box ideas, particularly when it comes to players who are fun to watch due to a unique skillset. I also always had a soft-spot for Thairo Estrada; he's a guy who had bad luck hit (a bullet to the hip area) just as his prospect status was rising, and by the time he was healthy enough to make some noise, the Yankees were forced to make a roster decision, and went with the more established infielder, Tyler Wade. We know how that played out, and Estrada put together some valuable seasons for the Giants.

I've long wished Estrada could have gotten some run in Yankee Stadium because he's totally different than the type of player the Yankees typically employ: he was an elite defender with one huge flaw (weak arm), a hitter with some pop who made an absurd amount of contact, and traditionally displayed the type of swing, chase, walk, and strikeout rates that only the most extreme free-swingers exhibit. Despite all of that, he made himself a nice little player for a few years. That's fun!

Unfortunately, the clock has struck midnight on Estrada. He struggled badly in 2024, eventually losing playing time for the Giants, and he's been equally bad this year for the Rockies. Takeaway the fact that he's still making contact and his strikeout rate is elite, and you're left with a player who has fallen off a cliff in almost every other way. The only positive is that Estrada's bat speed is still adequate and actually up a bit, indicating that the pop that made him interesting offensively remains. Otherwise, he's backsliding everywhere. The eye test and the numbers indicate that he's no longer elite defensively, and he's a 2B-only option due to his weak arm. He's not making enough contact to get to his pop, and he's rarely on-base to use his speed.

At this stage in their careers, I'd take Peraza over Estrada in a heartbeat, and the Yankees need to upgrade Peraza's roster spot. Players with extreme profiles like Estrada, who are free-swingers and depend on tons of contact and have limited tools elsewhere, tend to fall off of a performance cliff more suddenly and extremely than others. I think that's what we are seeing happen to Estrada.

It's a fun idea to bring Estrada back, but I think it's best left on the drawing table.

Robert M. asks: Trent Grisham is on a pace to be at -11 DRS/year. His current -4 DRS has components of -5 for positioning and +1 for arm. What's going on with him? His last Gold Glove year was 2022 (+10 DRS), and in 2023-24, he totaled all of +1. Now he appears to have gone from elite defender to better than no one not named "Giancarlo." Yet nobody seems to be talking about it.

Generally, I don't use DRS anymore to evaluate defensive performance, but in this case, DRS has generally been in agreement with all of the other prominent publicly available defensive statistics. While I have noticed the drop statistically, I wasn't necessarily writing about it here. I will note that my eye test agrees with the statistics: Grisham has not been a Gold Glove caliber defender since coming to the Yankees.

I think there are two primary factors at play here. The first is pretty easy to dig up: Grisham has lost more than a step since his Gold Glove performance in 2022. Grisham went from having near-elite speed to middling or even below-average speed. That alone took Grisham from being elite to above-average just on skillset and tools in CF. The second is a little less easy to define.

Grisham remained a very good CF in his first season in pinstripes even with severely diminished speed. With a full season's worth of reps out there, I have very little doubt but that he would have ranked among the 8-10 best CF in the sport defensively, but there has been a drop-off recently (Wednesday night's incredible defensive performance notwithstanding). Very honestly, I think there's a human phenomenon that we don't often talk about on the defensive side of the diamond: slumps. Just as a hitter can have an extended slump at the plate, I firmly believe players can have similar slumps out in the field. The inverse is true as well.

Anecdotally, Grisham took a few wonky routes in May on very windy days in the Bronx that led to him missing catches that he would normally make. In a small sample size, 5 or 6 bad routes will really hurt your defensive numbers until you get a broader sample. However, just as I talk about positive regression to the mean for hitters when they're struggling, the same thing exists for defenders, and I think that Wednesday night's performance in KC might be the beginning of Grisham's regression to his normally excellent mean performance defensively.

Grisham still displays an ability to react quickly to make reads on balls off the bat and has just enough speed to track those balls down in the alleys. He also has a solid arm and throws accurately, so guys aren't generally gaining extra bases off of Grisham.

I expect that when we look at the numbers at the end of the season, Grisham will look like an above-average CF. We'll see if his bat justifies continued reps out in CF.

Brian G. asks: This was asked a while ago, but I wanted to ask again now that it seems like Stanton will be back in the next week or so: how would you handle playing time for Stanton, Rice, the 4 outfielders, and anyone else when Stanton comes back? I get that it's a good problem to have, but the Yankees need a solution to get everyone playing time.

Despite Ben Rice's falling bottom-line statistics, he is still clearly hitting the ball well and taking good at-bats, so he needs to be a regular part of the lineup. Dominguez, Grisham, and Bellinger fall into the same category, and there are only 3 outfield spots and one DH to work with if the Yankees continue their current trend. Luckily, the Yankees have signaled a willingness to break that trend.

Just yesterday, Aaron Boone signaled a willingness to allow Ben Rice more playing time at catcher, his natural position. With Austin Wells heating up and JC Escarra around as a competent backup, I'm not sure how much playing time there really is for Rice back there, but I would not be shocked if he gets 1 start per week at catcher once Stanton returns. The interesting question to me is what that means for Escarra's roster spot. I believe Escarra is a more valuable player than either Peraza or Reyes, but if Rice starts cutting into Escarra's playing time (and the Yankees don't give Escarra reps at 3B or 1B), he may be the odd man out.

I also think that it is time to cut back on Goldschmidt's playing time against right-handed pitching. He hasn't hit same-sided pitching for a year and a half now, and is showing few signs of life. Rice should also take 1-2 starts per week from Goldschmidt against right-handed pitching.

Lastly, the Yankees are going to manage Stanton's playing time in an attempt to keep him healthy-ish. I fully expect him to get 2 off-days per week, and Rice could easily grab 1-2 of those appearances. Aaron Boone will need to show flexibility and creativity (I'm skeptical of his ability to do just that), but there's a path to get everyone the playing time they deserve in this lineup.