The Prospect Hype Goes On And On...

by Paul Semendinger

November 10, 2025

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Throughout all of our lives as Yankees fans, we have been fed hype, on hyperdrive, about upcoming prospects.

We have been told time and time and time again that the prospect the Yankees are hyping at the moment will be the next great player.

And as fans, so many believe this. They buy into the hype. Over and over. As prospects fail and fail again, so many fans say, "But this guy, this guy, I believe in him."

We are fed the same lines year-after-year, and have been told the same things for decades. We're told that players are elite, have unique swings, could already field at a big league level, possess great batting eyes, and have special talent time and time again.

Much of that hype, the vast majority of it, almost all of it, proves to be untrue in reality.

Players that supposedly hold special hitting skills turn out not to be able to hit. Players with batting eyes that are supposed to be elite, turn out to fail to even be able to draw walks. Players who we are told have Major League fielding skills cannot make even routine plays. Pitchers with a variety of big league pitches can't throw strikes. On and on...

As we realize that the hype of Oswald Peraza was just that, hype, we buy into the same hype thrust upon Anthony Volpe, and as we realize that the truth about this player was much less than the hype, we immediately buy into George Lombard, Jr.

"I know I have bought into the hype for decades," we say, "But this guy, this time, he will be the real deal."

I am surprised and amazed that year-after-year, fans fall for the same hype over and over again.

"I know you lied to me tens of times, unashamed, but I still believe you."

Go back and look in Yankees publications or prospect lists for the last five or ten or fifteen years. Go back and look at all of the hyped prospects. Most not only didn't become stars, most didn't even become good, or even poor Major Leaguers.

And yet, year-after-year, the fans buy in. Year-after-year they assume that the scouts, the evaluators, the hypers, the PR guys who have either been very wrong or very dishonest, or both, are correct and/or telling the truth this year, this time.

As fans watch Jasson Dominguez, supposedly an elite defender, prove not to be, they state, "Yes, but Spencer Jones he really is elite in centerfield."

If (or when) it is proved that they player the fans were sold on proves to be less, often much less, and very often, much much much less, than as advertised, rather than looking critically and with caution to the next player, the fans immediately buy into the hype and start calling for that next player to be on the big league team.

"This guy, this time, is for real."

They base these hopes not on seeing these players live. Most fans have never seen the vast majority of these hyped players except in highlight reels or random games. All they have to go on are small glimpses and what they're told from the supposed experts - the same people making those prospect lists that have been proven to be much less than accurate for decades. And yet, they buy in again and again and again.

For example, I keep hearing that Spencer Jones should be beginning 2026 with the Yankees. Spencer Jones.

There's a ton of hype on Spencer Jones.

But some reality is necessary.

In 2023, Spencer Jones hit .267 across two minor league levels, High-A and Double-A.

In 2024, Spencer Jones batted .259 in Double-A

In 2025, Spencer Jones hit .274 across two levels, Double-A and Triple-A.

That's three years worth of data. Three years. Jones has never, as a minor leaguer, even hit .280. That's not eliter. That doesn't scream, "The Major Leagues Are Calling."

But it gets worse.

In 2023, he struck out 155 times on 480 at bats. In other words, in 32.2% of his at bats that season, he whiffed.

In 2024, he struck out 200 times in 482 at bats. That's 41.4% of his at bats.

In 2025, he struck out 179 times in 438 at bats. That is 40.8% of his at bats.

Quite simply, those numbers do not indicate Major League success. Those number indicate a Major League disaster.

I know what the immediate response to those numbers will be, and I suspect some are already typing it into the comments, "Judge struck out a lot too..."

To be blunt and direct and completely honest and fair, using Aaron Judge as the comparison is lazy, unfair, and, quite frankly, ridiculous. Aaron Judge is one of the rarest of rare players. He is putting up inner-circle Hall of Fame numbers. No one can be asked to compare to that. Aaron Judge should never be used as a comparison. Not ever.

At the same time that fans decry the unfairness of calling Jasson Dominguez the next Mickey Mantle, or Anthony Volpe the next Derek Jeter, they also state that Spencer Jones could be the next Aaron Judge. No, he cannot. Aaron Judge is a once in a generation baseball player.

The comparison to Judge comes only because Jones is a tall and strong outfielder who strikes out a lot. The comparison is unfair and absurd.

Spencer Jones is Spencer Jones. Spencer Jones should be compared to Spencer Jones. And right now, based on his performance in the minor leagues over the last three seasons, Spencer Jones is not ready for the Major Leagues. He should not be a player the Yankees build their 2026 team around this winter.

We're told that Jones is an elite defender. We don't know that. We're told that about a lot of players who, it turns out, simply are not.

Spencer Jones might one day be a very good baseball player. I hope so, but that time is not yet. Let him excel in Tripe-A, if he can, and then the discussions about playing on the big league squad can take place. But not yet. Not by a longshot.