SSTN Mailbag: A Lot Of Skubal And Sizing Up The AL East!

Were all of you sitting on the edge of your seat for yesterday's press conference? Yeah, I wasn't either. While the press conference was fairly typical as far as Yankee management press conferences go, I thought there were some interesting tidbits to pull out:

• All of the core injured Yankees (Cole, Rodon, Schmidt, Volpe, etc.) are right on schedule with their recoveries and doing well. It sounds as though Rodon and Volpe are on track to return fairly early in the season.

• The Yankees targeted Bellinger above others this offseason. They believe in his fit with this roster core.

• Brian Cashman strongly believes that the core of the Yankees' roster is championship caliber. He also doesn't believe that this team is exactly the same, noting supplementation from returning injured players, last season's trade deadline acquisitions, and growth from young players. He believes that the roster didn't play up to its capabilities against the Blue Jays in the playoffs.

• Aaron Boone acknowledged that Bellinger's return changes the outlooks for both Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones this year. He maintains that both have high-end MLB talent.

• Brian Cashman believes very strongly in the recent acquisitions of Ryan Weathers (who I wrote about here) and Angel Chivilli (who I am writing about very shortly).

There is a bit too much hope-ium in some of these statements for my taste, however I also acknowledge that there's a fair amount of truth here. I don't think it's particularly likely that the Yankees will get a clean sweep of guys coming back from injury seamlessly, but if it happens, the Yankees are positioned well; I thought there were better routes to take than bringing Bellinger back to NY, but I also acknowledge that I could be wrong about that and Belli might be the exact right piece; I also am more bullish on this core group than most; Cashman is absolutely right that the Yankees didn't play their best baseball against the Blue Jays, though many of us have noted that is a consistent trend the Yankees exhibit under Aaron Boone's management; and I agree that the Yankees' recent pitching acquisitions are of real interest.

Really, the Yankees are banking strongly on improvement from some guys who are key players in the lineup, namely Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, and Ryan McMahon. Speaking truthfully, I only strongly believe that one of the three can make a strong offensive impact in 2026, though I remain intrigued by Jose Caballero's opportunity to grab a full-time role at the beginning of the season. The Yankees have improved starting pitching depth this year, assuming they don't make any trades involving upper level pitching prospects, and there are intriguing pieces elsewhere around the roster. I will freely admit, I would have managed the same budget differently this offseason, but I'm not the guy in the big chair. I would have left a very similar core intact, just the same as Cashman. I remain eager for baseball to return, and I do give the Yankees a strong chance of being good.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll discuss multiple points of view regarding the rumored availability of Tarik Skubal and take a look around the AL East! Let's get at it:

Fuster asks: Detroit has only one year of control to offer in trade,

there's no likelihood that his agent will allow him to sign an extension

and he probably would make the Yankee rotation too left-handed,

however he probably would improve the rotation for next season.

should the Yankees make a bid?

would Spencer Jones, Will Warren and Elmer Rodriguez serve to open the bidding?

Before the season starts, I don't think that even gets the Tigers to continue the conversation. The Tigers have an interesting roster that is capable of competing this year. I can't really envision a trade that another, contending team would be willing to complete right now that would entice the Tigers to deal Skubal before the start of the season.

For all of the rumors about the standoff between Skubal and the Tigers coming into the offseason as a reason for a potential trade, the logic has never really held water. For the Tigers to trade Skubal before the season starts, they need to give themselves future certainty and value while also maintaining their ability to compete in 2026. When the team on the other side of the aisle only assures themselves of getting Skubal's services for 2026, the needs and value streams simply don't matchup between two sides.

Thinking specifically about the deal above, Spencer Jones might be able to tap into enough contact to be peak Joey Gallo (who many forget, was quite valuable for a few years before it all fell apart, despite his clear flaws); he also may never make enough contact to be a regular big leaguer. Warren is an innings eater, but I've never projected much beyond what he showed last season. Rodriguez is a prospect I like quite a bit, but while he may be able to step into a big league rotation at some point in 2026, I don't think he's quite ready to be a mid-rotation standby yet.

Tarik Skubal is almost certainly a good bet for 6+ bWAR in 2026, as long as he maintains health (always a big IF for pitchers). Could the above 3 players come close to that with a complete season in the Majors in 2026? I'd give a less than 5% chance of that happening. Will that collection of players ever produce that much in a single season? I think the chances are less than 50%. If I'm the Tigers, this is a lose-lose proposition if my goal is to compete now and in the future.

Now, this package becomes a more interesting entry offer for discussion if the Tigers go down in flames through June this year. Suddenly, I think the Tigers will look to get as much as they possibly can for Skubal. I still think a partial season of Skubal will be worth more than the collection of players above, but it would at least get a conversation started.

iamanycguy states: I would make that trade in a heartbeat. A stud, superstar, ace for three high end but not battle tested kids? I'm in.

I am fairly certain that this is referencing Jon Heyman's recent suggestion that the Tigers opened talks with the Yankees by asking for Ben Rice, Cam Schlittler, and George Lombard Jr. Our own Ethan Semendinger did a fantastic job of covering this trade proposal earlier this week, but I'll throw my hat into the ring as well.

First off, most of us know by now that we need to take any specific reports that Heyman throws out there with a serious grain of salt, though in this specific case, I don't discount the idea that this was the initial ask by the Tigers. As I outlined above, if I'm the Tigers and I decide to trade Skubal before the start of the season, I need to provide a path to compete at a similar level in 2026 and beyond. This ask certainly does this, at a minimum.

Anyone who has read this blog for any length of time knows that I was one of the first people on Schlittler going back over a year at this point. I believed he was a very high-end talent, and he proved that in his first MLB action this year. There's a non-zero chance that Schlittler can be a Skubal-caliber arm this year. Schlittler's performance last season would have been worth close to 5 bWAR over a full season's worth of innings. Schlittler is built to be a workhorse, and he gets to his high-octane velocity without much effort in his delivery. Based on his recent history and his mechanics, I give him a good shot to pitch a ton of innings this year...oh, and that's without even projecting him to get better, and if that happens, the Yankees might already have their own Skubal-caliber pitcher.

Ben Rice is another guy who I think largely proved his staying power last season. He was an All-Star caliber hitter in his first full-season, improved significantly against same-sided pitching as the year went on, and remains useful in a 3rd catcher role in a pinch. Yes, you could slide Bellinger over to 1B if you moved on from Rice, but again, I think losing Rice makes the Yankee lineup much weaker.

Lombard is an excellent prospect who is likely to produce solid value for years to come even if his bat never comes all the way around due to his defense and baserunning. He's exactly the caliber of prospect you expect to give up for Skubal.

No, I wouldn't give up this collection of prospects up for Skubal; even if we project conservatively, I think the combination of Schlittler and Rice is more valuable right now by themselves than Skubal, and that's before we even remember that Skubal has only one year of team control remaining. I strongly believe that Rice and Schlittler are mainstays of the current and future Yankee core. The Tigers were right to ask for them, but even if they asked very politely, I wouldn't budge for that return.

Steve M. asks: Can you give an overview of how the Yankees stack up to the rest of the AL East right now? I've heard a lot about everyone else in the division, but not the Yankees and I'm curious to know how you think they stack up.

I've been thinking about this as well, particularly given Cashman's assertion that the Yankees have a championship caliber roster. The AL East is far and away the best division in baseball. You could argue that 4/5 teams in the division could lay claim to being championship caliber, which no other division in baseball can claim. I'd handicap it as follows:

1. Blue Jays

2. Yankees

3. Red Sox

4. Orioles

5. Rays

It's really, really close, particularly when we talk about 3rd and 4th place. The Blue Jays are the returning champs and they clearly made an effort to get better this offseason. The rotation is much deeper with the Dylan Cease acquisition and the offense remains potent. However, I don't think common assessments of the Jays' prospects have given enough credence to 2 factors:

1. Bo Bichette's exit via free agency leaves a huge hole in the offense.

2. Literally everything went right for the Blue Jays last year.

We always talk about the idea that the Yankees hope for too much to go right in their roster building; I see a lot of that for the Jays based on last season. Sure, Addison Barger should be better this year, but expecting 35 year old George Springer to both stay healthy and repeat last year is asking a lot. The Jays got career years from numerous role players, which you can almost never count on. I love their rotation and bullpen, and the offense should still be good, so they have a high floor, but I don't think they're the slam dunk everyone talks about.

The Yankees are really, really good, and that's even if you don't project any growth from Austin Wells, Ben Rice, Anthony Volpe, Cam Schlittler, Jasson Dominguez, etc. The Yankees had plenty go wrong last year...and they still won 90+ games. I do think this is a better, deeper roster than last year (even if it's not as much better as I hoped). I think the Yankees and Blue Jays are neck-and-neck.

The Red Sox might have the best pitching staff in baseball, and they have even more talent on the way from the minors. They also look to have a terribly incomplete offense, particularly now that Alex Bregman left in free agency (alienating and trading Devers looks worse by the day). I'm not sure that their offense is even average, but the pitching staff is so good and so deep that they might win 90+ games.

The Orioles got a lot better this offseason, but I still am not a big believer in this pitching staff. There's also the matter of the serious regression in many of their core young talent. If the regression proves to be a blip, the O's might be the best in the East; if it sticks around, they're the 4th best team in the AL East. Again, I really don't trust this pitching staff.

The magic around the Rays is gone. This is a bad roster with very little upward projection due to the lack of good role players or enough high-level talent. One of these years, instead of hanging around .500, they're going to win 70 or less games. It might be this year.