Tarik Skubal: Asking Too Much?
- Ethan Semendinger
- 1 hour ago
- 3 min read
Recently, Jon Heyman stated in an interview that the Detroit Tigers asked for "half the team" in a trade for Tarik Skubal. Let's talk about it...
Per Jon Heyman:
On a recent episode of the Bleacher Report's "B/R Walk Off" show, insider Jon Heyman was asked about Detroit Tigers starting pitcher, Tarik Skubal. After a brief explanation about his value and Skubal's contract disputes in arbitration with his current team, Heyman discussed how the Yankees inquired about his price in a trade.
As you can see in the clip (below), Heyman stated, "[the Tigers] are willing to listen, [the Tigers] are asking a ton, [from] the Yankees they asked for 'half the team'". Afterwards, he specifically mentions players like Ben Rice, Cam Schlittler, and George Lombard Jr.
See for yourself, here:
Is This A Reasonable Ask?
After this clip went viral across social media and some Yankees discussion boards, a user to the website BaseballTradeValues.com put together a trade based off the pieces mentioned by Heyman. Given the values of the players involved, I am very surprised by the trade "results":
Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal (+58 MTV)
New York Yankees: Ben Rice (+44.6 MTV), Cam Schlittler (+26.7 MTV), & George Lombard (+24 MTV)...TOTAL = +95.3 MTV
As far as a quick glance would go, this trade is WILDLY unfavorable for the New York Yankees. Keep in mind that "MTV" (or Millions of Dollars of Trade/Expected Value) is a very simplified metric to try and express the complexion of salary demands, years of control, and future projections, and due to its multifaceted being it is prone to being highly inaccurate.
However, even if we consider Skubal to be a "high end" player (moving his MTV up to +69.6), and we consider all of the Yankees pieces to be on the "low end" (Rice falls to +35.6 MTV, Schlittler to +21.3 MTV, and Lombard to +19.2 MTV), the Yankees are STILL comfortably ahead of value with their pieces being worth a combined +76.1 MTV.
So, the simple answer is 'No'. This is not a reasonable ask.
This shouldn't come as a surprise, either. Yankees fans across the board believe this internally to be an overpayment for a disgruntled pitcher with just one season left on his contract.
So, can we restructure this deal to keep the basic framework while providing the Tigers with what they're looking for? (i.e. cheap, controllable, and young talent)
Fixing The Trade Proposal:
Let's begin with the seemingly simplest fix: swapping out Cam Schlittler for another young (under 27) and controllable (3+ years) starting pitcher.
If the Tigers desire a pitcher with MLB experience, the only other option to fit this mold would be Will Warren...who comes in with an even higher MTV value than Schlittler! (Warren's value is at +27.9 MTV.)
Ultimately, the Yankees won't dish away Warren or Schlittler in this deal, meaning that the Tigers must settle for a prospect arm. I'm looking to cut down on about +10 MTV per player in this mock trade, which leaves the following arms available:
Elmer Rodriguez Cruz: +14.7 MTV
Carlos Lagrange: +10.3 MTV
ERC is the better prospect, and is much closer to breaking the Triple-A to MLB barrier. He'd easily be their choice.
That's a solid starting point for a trade.
To replace Ben Rice, I'd be looking for another young (under 25) infielder. For this, the Yankees have one option with MLB experience and two solid prospect options:
George Lombard: +24.0 MTV
Anthony Volpe: +22.9 MTV
Dax Kilby: +20.9 MTV
The obvious pick to replace Ben Rice would be George Lombard. However, this brings up a really interesting situation for this thought experiment. Unfortunately, there is no replacing George Lombard in this trade package.
With that, comes the other unfortunate circumstance that the gap between Rice and the rest of this talent- along with the gap between Schlittler/Warren and the prospect pitchers- is far too big to allow for me to also reduce the original prospect capital. So, that means the Tigers would ultimately be given the choice of the next two highest value pieces of Volpe and Kilby.
I'd imagine they'd decide to go with Dax Kilby, making this the trade for Tarik Skubal:
Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal (+58 MTV)
New York Yankees: George Lombard (+24 MTV), Dax Kilby (+20.9 MTV), & Elmer Rodriguez Cruz (+14.7 MTV), ...TOTAL = +59.6 MTV
The only questions now are would you do this if you were the Yankees?
Would you do this if you were the Tigers?
