SSTN Mailbag: Closer Options, Ornelas, And Prospect Progress!

This has been an incredibly frustrating couple of weeks. Since the Yankees began the toughest slate of their early season schedule on the road against the Brewers, the Yankees are 4-9. That includes 2 wins against the Blue Jays this week. Even when the Yankees win lately, nothing feels particularly good.

I noted it in the game recap last night, but Aaron Judge and Ben Rice have gone ice cold at the plate. Rice at least is still running into pop occasionally, but he hasn't been the same since bruising his hand a couple of weeks ago. I can't help but think that Rice needs a couple of days off and some treatment to get right again. Judge's peripherals are all down from his peak, indicating some degree of skill decline. I don't think that decline is significant, but it's there, and it means that Judge's cold streaks are going to be colder than we've grown accustomed to over the last few years. He'll heat up again, and I do believe that we'll look at the end of the season and see that Judge is one of the 3-4 best hitters in the sport, but maybe not the unquestioned best.

That's a scary place for this offense to be. Cody Bellinger is a nice complementary piece; he can't carry an offense for a couple of weeks while Judge and Rice scuffle. Jazz is capable of great hot streaks, but he likewise can't carry an offense. The only player that the Yankees have that is capable of that level of offense in short bursts (when both Judge and Rice are cold) is...Giancarlo Stanton, and we have no idea when he'll be back. Right now, this team could sure use him.

On the bright side, Gerrit Cole returns tonight, and I'm excited to see that. I hope having Cole around proves to be the shot in the arm this team needs. I also will be happy to see Caballero return, as his energy changes the way this team plays. I'll be curious to see how they manage Volpe's playing time...now would be the time to let him get exposure around the diamond. Fascinating days lie ahead.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about possible trades for a closer, Jonathan Ornelas' hot start down in AAA, and discuss the progress of some mid-level prospects! Let's get at it:

Fuster asks: of Bednar, Doval and Lagrange are to be deployed as the closer in the second half of 2026, which player might be suitable 

and available at a cost that the Yankee organization would not regard as onerous?

Doval is really getting burned by the situations in which Boone keeps deploying him. He is constantly called upon to pitch in tough matchups with runners on 2nd and/or 3rd lately. To be fair, I don't think he's been great, but he looks a lot closer mechanically to the guy he was at his best in San Francisco. Bednar has the closer pedigree, but he looks simply awful this year. I've noted it constantly this year, but his velocity is way down and it's obvious that he doesn't trust his fastball. I think we're nearing the point where the Yankees should consider putting him on the IL with the vague "arm fatigue" designation teams around baseball use for pitchers who need a breather. Lagrange is electric, and really does profile as a future closer if he proves unable to start. I really believe that the Yankees are going to keep him stretched out until mid-summer, and he would need to just obliterate the competition to prove ready for the closer's role.

The looming option out there that the Yankees shouldn't count on is Clarke Schmidt. Never count on perfect health for guys returning from UCL surgery of any kind. That goes double for a guy who has consistently had arm trouble like Schmidt. However, if he can get himself back in August, I think he'd be a real option to close, as he won't have time to build up to a starter's workload. Internally, besides Bednar, I think Schmidt is the most realistic option to close games in August and beyond.

Externally, the options are surprisingly thin. We need to wait a little bit to see who is truly out of the playoff race by July (thanks expanded playoffs!), here's a short list of guys who I think might be available and are vaguely interesting:

• Daniel Lynch, KC - Lynch has been around for a long time it feels like, but he still maintains arbitration eligibility. His stuff fits the Yankees general profile as a sinker/slider guy, and he has a consistent history of solid results. Lynch has good playoff experience as well. KC is going nowhere this year, and almost certainly needs to re-tool a bit. I could see them dealing Lynch for an upper level relief prospect or a mid-level pitching prospect (Bryce Cunningham-type arm) and a lottery ticket.

• Sam Bachman, LAA - Bachman is similar to Lynch, only he throws harder and doesn't have the track record Lynch brings to the table. Bachman has an upper-90s sinker that is really a bowling ball and has been a rare bright spot in an awful Angels bullpen. The Angels desperately need to rebuild; whether they will is anyone's guess. I think he'd be a similar price to Lynch. The more I watch him, the more I like him.

• Pete Fairbanks, MIA - Fairbanks checks multiple boxes: significant closing experience in the ringer of the AL East and he still throws more than hard enough to dominate. He has struggled immensely this year with Miami, but his numbers are skewed by few opportunities to pitch and a couple of bad outings. His peripherals remain very strong. It's an expiring contract and he'll have something like $5 million remaining on his contract by the trade deadline. Again, the price is probably similar to the guys above.

• Keaton Winn, SFG - My favorite target on the list, and likely the toughest to grab. Winn took a while to find his groove, but he's found it in a big way. He has been a beast on a terrible Giants team that somehow looks old and green at the same time. He throws a fastball that lives in the mid-90s, but he can reach back for high-90s when he needs it; his mechanics have been simplified, allowing him to show surprisingly good command; and he has an incredible splitter that he throws from 88-92 MPH and it tunnels incredibly well with his fastball. He is a soft-contact monster and he displays an above-average strikeout rate. He's an asset in any bullpen. What makes him expensive is the fact that he's under team control through 2030. That makes him an order of magnitude more expensive than the guys above. The Giants need talent, even if it's risky. I wonder how they feel about Spencer Jones? I don't think he'd be the main piece, but I could see him being the secondary piece. Might they take two mid-level Yankee prospects - Ben Hess and Spencer Jones? Both are high-probability big league players, with upsides that really depend on specific skillsets.

Matthew U. asks: Jonathan Ornelas - I'm pretty amazed by his season at Scranton.  Crushing it at the plate. Only 2 errors in 26 games.  Has been forced to play everywhere when GLJ/Volpe came to town.  Manager appears to love him.  Never gets a snippet of news coverage when they talk about replacements.   Thoughts?

Sure, let's give Ornelas some time here - he really has been excellent in Scranton. I think he's done everything he possibly can to make teams from the Yankees and beyond take notice of his performance. Were he a better option in the outfield, I can't help but think that he'd be up right now instead of Max Shuemann.

Ornelas once was a reasonably interesting 40-ish grade prospect in the Texas system. The book on him was that it was an open question whether he'd hit enough to be a regular, but that defensive versatility made him a safe bet to man a utility spot on someone's bench, with the possibility for more if he hit a bit more or took to CF. Neither really happened during his time as a legitimate prospect, and he's floated around for the last year. He's had three short cups of coffee in the Majors (Texas 2023/2024, Atlanta 2025), and he had a random power surge in AA in 2022 that temporarily put him on the fringes of some larger prospect discussions. Below, I'll give you my thoughts based on what I see from him this year:

Ornelas has plus speed that plays at any position on a baseball diamond. It's useable speed on both the basepaths and in the field as opposed to outfield race times. He's got a solid arm that's enough for 3B and SS, though I wouldn't necessarily label it as plus. He's got good hands, and the total package is that of a solid defender around the infield dirt and someone who can moonlight in the outfield in a pinch.

On the plus side offensively, he hits the ball really hard and his approach is up the middle, which gives him the ability to really spray the ball hard to all fields. Unfortunately, as has been the case for most of Ornelas' career, far too much of that hard contact is on the ground (5-ish degree launch angle), so that pop is rarely optimized, and would get exposed against better pitching. His chase rates have also increased significantly as he's climbed the ladder, and even this season, he's chased outside of the zone at a rate well above the MLB average. He also seems to be a straight fastball hitter, and he has continually struggled to do any consistent damage against breaking or off-speed pitches, displaying low exit velocities and tons of whiffs against such pitches.

You can squint and see more in the tank for Ornelas. He has utilized a giant leg kick to begin his swing since high school, and it really hinders his ability to adjust to different game plans at the plate. I think revising that leg kick is the key to unlocking more performance. I doubt I'm the first person to make that assessment, and it's possible that it takes away too many other things that Ornelas does well, but it is keeping him from improving his chase rates and his ability to adjust when he gets pitches he doesn't read immediately.

Ornelas is a good baserunner and good defender, but he needs to find a way to make more meaningful contact against non-fastballs if he hopes to stick in the Show.

Alan B. asks: Andy, any comments on the early goings of prospects RHP Jack Cebert, INFs Kaeden Kent & Jackson Lovich? And I think with Tyler Hardman finally being fully healthy from the HBP that broke his wrist back in July 2023, deserves a promotion to AAA.

I've somehow managed to miss watching Cebert pitch this season - I'm anxious to do so, so I won't comment on him for now. However, I have watched Kent and Lovich. Both are more than ready for a call-up. Kent and Lovich both played SEC ball, and are well below where they should be playing given their level of competition in college.

Lovich has serious pop, but I'm not sure where he fits defensively at this point, as I don't think he's a SS and 1B seems like a waste of his other tools. He has serious swing and miss issues that are going to become a problem as he goes up the minor league ladder, but better to encounter those issues now and confront them head-on. I like Lovich more than most, and see that he might have enough bat control to make adjustments if he's challenged. I think the Yankees have waited to long to bring him up and begin that development.

I'm not as big on Kent, but he's not swinging out of his shoes every swing this season, which is very good. I think he's ultimately a 2B/UTIL, but if he can continue to control the strike zone, he's got a shot at making it. I don't view him as a high-end prospect, but he has speed and good gap power. If he can get all of the pieces to click, I think he might be a 45-grade prospect who is a 2nd division regular at 2B or a high-end utility guy on a good team. I think he should get the call to AA now that the Yankees have cleared Lombard Jr. out of there.

Hardman has huge pop, and I agree with Alan - he really struggled with that wrist break. Sometimes, it takes a ton of time to get full strength back, and guys compensate until and even after that happens, destroying mechanics. Hardman looks more like the guy he was in the first half of 2023 now. I still don't think he's a real prospect, but I do agree that he's ready for a call up to AAA. The Yanks have some shuffling to do on that roster before it can happen, so I'd look for that in June/July.