SSTN Mailbag: Detmers, Langford, Martin, SS, And Wells!

I promised that I'd have a long Mailbag when I returned, and here we are. The Yankees have been awful lately, but there's not much I can say about it here that hasn't been discussed at length here already. You've been filling the Mailbag since I've been gone, so I owe it to all of you to jump straight to your questions, so let's not take too much time today for small talk.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about multiple trade targets, an emerging prospect, the starting shortstop job, and Austin Wells! Let's get at it:

levee-pip-3d offers the following trade target: Reid Detmers

I like Detmers a lot more than one might assume when you look at his 4.39 ERA this year and career mid-4’s ERA overall.  Detmers is a lefty with roughly average fastball velocity as a starter, but we’ve seen that it ticks up close to 96 MPH when he pitches out of the bullpen, as he did last season for the Angels.  Detmers brings an average-ish fastball with carry at the top of the zone and two lights-out breaking balls that he can use against both lefties and righties.  He also has a change-up that has emerged more over the last two seasons that has become a usable weapon against right-handed hitters.  All of his pitches, except for his fastballs, generate elite whiff rates, and his overall strikeout rate is among the best in baseball.

Somehow, Detmers is consistently less than the sum of his parts, and he very often underperforms his peripherals.  He’s valuable due to having 2 years of team control left beyond this season and he has immense talent, but he also hasn’t taken the leap many have expected.  Obviously, with his toolset on the mound, he’s likely a prime candidate for tweaking in an organization with a pulse.  Matt Blake has done plenty with pitchers like Detmers who brought less stuff to the table.  Given the Yankees’ current concerns in the bullpen and their injuries in the starting rotation, having a guy around that can pitch in the middle innings and spot start, if needed, has real value.

I liked Detmers as an acquisition target last season, and I still like him this season.  Given Detmers’ continued middling performance and the Angels’ desperate need to rebuild, I don’t expect that Detmers would cost much more than a couple of mid-level prospects to acquire his services.  Something like Bryce Cunningham and Kaeden Kent sounds like the right starting place to me, but I could be off.  If that’s within striking distance of the asking price, I’d do it in a heartbeat, which means it’s light.

Fuster asks: Suppose Texas’ struggles give Cashman the idea that the team might entertain the idea of trading Wyatt Lan[g]ford along with Higashioka. 

Cashman opens the negotiation by suggesting Warren, Rodriguez and Pico Kohn.

what is the Rangers' counterproposal?

I do not see the Rangers parting with Langford and Higashioka at the trade deadline.  With the expanded playoff picture, the Rangers remain right in the heart of the conversation.  Even if they fall off further in the next couple of weeks, I expect their sale to be a soft sale, without any huge pieces moving.  Right now, given Langford’s years of team control remaining, they have no reason to deal him.  3 more years of team control after this one make him a cost-controlled near-superstar.

Even if the Rangers dangled Langford, a deal would really hurt.  Warren and Rodriguez do not get the conversation started.  If the Rangers were to move Lanford, I’d assume they also found a taker for Seager, which opens up SS.  I think the Rangers would start by asking for Warren, Lombard Jr., Lagrange, and a low minors lottery ticket with upside.  I think other teams could offer more.  As much fun as Langford would be, it’s a pipe dream.

Joe asks: Hi. Great to see Garrett Martin at Triple A. Late bloomers happen all the time. Righty hitting athletic outfielders needed all over the majors, including by Yankees. Plus Grisham a free agent. Can someone give me in in-depth scouting report on him and possibly comments by a scout if he can be a major leaguer etc? Thank you!

Garrett Martin is certainly having a moment down in the minors, isn’t he?  He was popping balls at such a prodigious rate down at Somerset that the Yankees had to give him an early call-up to AAA.  More interestingly, he’d handled the call up quite well without an adjustment period before an unfortunately timed injury sent him to the IL at the beginning of July.

Martin is a well-built ballplayer at 6’3”.  From a tools perspective, he has one real calling card: power.  Martin has plus-plus raw power that until this year struggled to show in minor league games because his swing decisions left more than something to be desired.  This year, Martin has made real changes to his approach that have aid dividends.  Martin has become much more selective at the plate, laying off more suboptimal pitches in the strike zone as he waits for pitches he can drive.  That mindset shift alone has allowed the immense power to play in games, as the rest of baseball has now seen with his 24-homer start between AA and AAA.

Unfortunately, Martin’s worst flaws beyond pitch selection remain.  He holds one of the worst chase rates in AAA and he very rarely walks relative to the number of pitches he sees out of the zone.  Those two factors really limit his upside as he climbs the ladder.  Additionally, he is really not a centerfielder, and will almost certainly need to move to a corner to provide any defensive value.

Even with those flaws understood, Martin has some of the best raw pop in professional baseball, posting some of the best average and max exit velocity readings in the game, and he is making so much contact with pitches he swings at in the strike zone that I believe that he can get to that power in MLB games if he continues to refine his approach.  Martin’s swing is simple from the right side, setting up open with a powerful stride into a slightly closed position, keeping his bat through the zone well with good loft, and I don’t see much that needs tweaking there, other than maybe decreasing the size of the leg kick to help him get to bigger velocity. 

Martin is relatively raw for his age due to time missed in the lost college season during Covid, so I think late bloomer describes him perfectly.  I think if Martin can get to a 40 hit tool, an increasing possibility, he might be able to hit 30+ homers in the big leagues, albeit with a low batting average.  That has real value, but it is really dependent on Martin’s continued growth in terms of swing decisions and pitch recognition.

Brian asks: Who do you think the Yankees should be starting at SS? It feels ridiculous that the Yankees don’t have a single starter at the most critical position in the infield.

I had started writing an article titled, “All’s Fair In Love And WAR,” and it was discussing the SS job and the relative merits of starting either Volpe or Caballero at the position.  More and more, I can’t help but think that defining the competition between those two players is an incorrect binary.  I think the best SS is already on the roster, and also isn’t one of those two players.

Max Schuemann should be the starting SS for the New York Yankees.  I can’t believe I’m writing that sentence, even if (as you might recall from this offseason) I really liked him as a bench piece.  Schuemann has more defensive chops for the position than either Volpe or Caballero, but there’s more to this story than just defense.  Schuemann has caught my eye at the plate.  He is a very different hitter than he has ever been previously.

I’m not just talking about his small-sample-size topline offensive performance either.  The underlying numbers both in the Majors and in the minors for Schuemann this year are fascinating.  So I did what I always do when the numbers are this jarring: I looked at video.  Schuemann has completely overhauled his swing in a way that I think makes his early hitting far less streaky than it might otherwise appear.  I will have a post up soon about Schuemann, but I think he’s the best choice to start at SS for the Yankees right now, and I don’t think that’s a bad thing either.

Mark asks: What’s wrong with Austin Wells?

I really wish I knew, and I’m sure the Yankees did too.  Wells has too many raw tools to be this bad at the plate, so I bet it’s some combination of physical pain and mental approach at this point.  In any case, the Yankees aren’t doing themselves or Wells any favors by continuing to trot him out there right now.  It’s sad to watch.