SSTN Mailbag: Dominguez, Warren, Coaching, And Struggling Hitters!

This is shaping up to be a big weekend for the Yankees. They lost 2 of 3 against the Orioles, and now the Yanks get the Rays this weekend. Unlike the years in which teams played an unbalanced schedule that skewed heavily towards division matchups, the Yankees really won't get that many chances in head-to-head series against division rivals, so these games feel like they count more than they probably should. Coming off of a series loss to an Orioles team that looks like it's turning things around, some fans are probably feeling some level of negativity about the team.

I freely admit that I'm in a similar boat, but how to put those feelings in context depends on whether you are someone who sees the glass half full, or half empty. In their 3 games against the Orioles, the Yankees lost 2 games by 1-run, and scored a blowout in their win. That may not sound that great on its surface, but understanding the games they lost is where you can see the glass as half full. They lost games pitched by Will Warren and Carlos Carrasco, their #4 and #5 starter, respectively. Neither of these guys were slated to start games when the season started, and it highlights the lack of depth the Yankees are working with right now in the starting rotation. Warren has shown potential, though he's almost certainly not ready for prime time, while Carrasco is a known entity. Is either likely to be in the rotation on August 15th? I don't think it's terribly likely. Let's also consider another angle: the Yankees only lost by a run to a team that should be contending for the AL East title with their two worst starters on the mound.

The Yankees have gaps, but they remain the team to beat in the AL East. You can see the pieces; the team just needs the finishing touch.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Jasson Dominguez as a switch-hitter, Will Warren's pitch mix, coaching, and opinions on the Yankees' struggling hitters! Let's get at it:

Many, many people asked some variation of: At what point should the Yankees consider telling Jasson Dominguez to give up switch-hitting?

I am far from the only one who has noted the difference in Dominguez as a hitter from the right and left sides of the plate, but I displayed the statistics in a game recap the other day, and the differences are stark:

vs RHP as a LHB: .321/.387/.500, .887 OPS

vs LHP as a RHB: .094/.237/.188, .424 OPS

Against right-handed pitching, Dominguez is likely one of the Yankees' 3 or 4 best hitters; you could even make the argument that he should be filling either Bellinger or Goldschmidt's spot in the lineup when a righty is on the hill. Against lefties thus far, despite his late game heroics a couple of weeks ago, he is one of the worst hitters in baseball in an admittedly miniscule sample size.

Despite the fact that Dominguez has struggled in these scenarios, Aaron Boone has started Dominguez in 6 of the 7 games the Yankees have played against left-handed starters this season. Frankly, I'm not opposed to it, because the Yankees owe it to themselves and a former prospect (he just lost traditional prospect eligibility, hence the phrasing) of Dominguez's stature to see if they can finish developing him from that side of the plate.

One important note that has been lost in the discussion of Dominguez as a prospect is that he really hasn't played a lot of professional baseball relative to most prospects. Dominguez has accumulated just over 1500 plate appearances in the minors, or the equivalent of just shy of 3 seasons worth of plate appearances. The pandemic and a torn UCL that required Tommy John really put a dent in Dominguez's development path.

Of those 1500+ plate appearances, less than 1/3 came as a right-handed hitter, and he has less than 350 plate appearances from that side of the plate in the high minors. Just from a development standpoint, he is much further behind the development path as a right-handed hitter when compared to his left side.

Dominguez is so talented that he forced his way to the Majors earlier than he might have otherwise, and from the left side of the plate, he had nothing left to learn at AAA, as he was no longer being challenged. I noted that in my look at him in September last year against the Syracuse Mets. I, and others, also noted that he had development left from the right side of the plate. When Dominguez made the big league roster out of Spring Training, the Yankees implicitly committed to helping Dominguez finish his development as a right-handed hitter at the Major League level. That won't be without painful period of growth, but again, the Yankees committed to that experience, rightly I think.

From a pure talent standpoint, I think that Dominguez will eventually be capable of hitting left-handed pitching, but it's going to take reps. Dominguez's mechanics are somewhat different batting righty versus batting lefty, and he'll need better front-hand control moving forward, but he'll only get that if he sees left-handed pitching. More to the point, it's not like the Yankees have a fantastic set of options for a platoon partner for Dominguez at the moment.

From a pure talent standpoint from the right side of the plate, Dominguez maintains a good eye with good pitch recognition and swing decisions. He has less bat control from the right-side, so I think it will always be his weaker side, but with reps, I think he'll be a capable right-handed hitter. Right now, he's probably a 5-6 hitter in a AAA lineup from the right side, but in time, I think he can be okay there.

It is far too early to give up on Dominguez batting right-handed. Switch hitting is incredibly difficult in today's game, but Dominguez has so few reps from that side of the plate that the Yankees would be doing themselves and Dominguez a disservice if they cut it off this season. To put it another way, Dominguez has almost never taken an at-bat from the left-side of the plate against left-handed pitching. That would bring a whole other set of learning curves that would likely necessitate finding a platoon partner for Dominguez long-term. We are at least a season away from getting to that point.

Fuster, during a discussion regarding Will Warren's ability to start, asks: is Warren's change-up good enough? does he have a serviceable curve?

Warren is not someone I have ever given a high probability of remaining a starter, though I have met a fair number of professional talent evaluators who disagree on that front. He is repeating his delivery a bit better this year, but it has plenty of violence and has a tendency to rely far too much on timing. As fuster rightly assumes, the fastball and slider/sweeper are good enough to get by against right-handed hitters by themselves, but he needs something else to be able to manage left-handed hitters.

I have never been a fan of Warren's change-up. He lacks feel for the pitch, and its shape and location are terribly inconsistent. What gives Warren a chance is the reintroduction of the curveball he dropped at AA. The curve has good depth and tight spin. More importantly, Warren shows more ability to locate the pitch in the proper place with good sequencing. Compared to the change-up, which frequently finds the meat of the strike zone, the curve almost never hits up in the strike zone, living at the bottom of and below the zone. If I were Warren, I would lean into the pitch a bit more.

The curve gives Warren a better shot to start than I gave him credit for in previous seasons. Based on who is on the roster at the moment, there's an argument that Warren is a valuable piece even with everyone healthy. There's untapped upside, and I think Warren is still working to find the right pitch mix consistently.

Alan B. asks: I almost sent this question into the mailbag yesterday, but glad I didn't after reading the Grand Poobah's (Paul) and your response will be in the mailbag. With that said, in other sports, players don't get all the blame for when they don't perform, coaches or coaching get their fair load of the blame. Why is it in baseball, coaches are are basically never blamed, and usually only the Manager, along with maybe some of the guys he hired to be on his staff get canned. Why don't the coaches get blamed? Too many runners thrown at home, isn't that on the 3B Coach? Pitchers throw too many pitches in the game on the same plane or at the same speed, why isn't the pitching coach's, the who devised that game plan catch any blame? A guy can't hit, or strikes out too much, why isn't it the hitting coach's issue? Further, for the Yankees, we all know that Cashman, along with his guys, including whoever he has hired since the end of the 2019 season, demands that when coaching, the coach must be analytically based, stripping it of anything baseball based. At what point do we shine the spotlight on the supposed coaching that goes on?

I think that internally, teams do often evaluate the quality and ability of its coaching staff. If talented prospects fail over and over again in predictable ways, coaching staffs should get some of the blame. However, where Alan and I disagree is whether Yankee coaching or inherent flaws in the prospects themselves are to blame for the struggles some Yankee prospects have had in recent seasons.

However, I also believe the Yankees relied too much on status quo on the big league coaching staff. The Yankees did have too many guys thrown out on the bases over the last few years, and 3B coaching has been a real problem there...unfortunately, so has the fact that until this season, the Yankees were one of the slowest teams in baseball, so it makes it hard to discern chicken versus the egg for all of the baserunning outs. We have also hashed out what I believe is a false dichotomy between the analytics and coaching department to the point of exhaustion, so I won't revisit it here, but I think the Yankees balance those two aspects well.

Teams evaluate coaching all the time. It's just not necessarily out in the open.

Fantasyfb3313 asks: which of our struggling or semi struggling hitters do you believe are going to become good hitters this year? any? Bellinger? Wells? anyone?

Of the guys who fall into this pot, I believe most strongly in Austin Wells, and he already looks like he's waking up. I am of the opinion he has been playing hurt since he got hit by a foul tip in game 1 of the season (after being hit in the last game of spring training), and his swing looks much better the last few days. By the end of the first half, I still believe that Austin Wells will be an All-Star.

I have real concerns about Bellinger despite his recent hits. He's not pulling the ball in the air nearly as much and he has chronic back issues. Neither of those things spell good things at Yankee Stadium.