SSTN Mailbag: Hitter Development, Lineup Congestion, And Promotions!

For once this year, the Yankees managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat as opposed to the inverse operation. On some level yes, the Yankees are among the best of a bunch of mediocre teams in the AL. The Yankees' starting rotation was a bit too thin to begin Spring Training and immediately got hit by a barrage of key injuries. That said, the rotation has managed to tread water mostly due to a league-best performance so far by Max Fried and underrated work by Carlos Rodon. Clarke Schmidt has helped significantly in recent days, while the backend of the rotation has been passable at its best, but has really put a lot of stress on the bullpen at its worst. Add in the fact that the offense has been excellent overall, but inconsistent, and the Yankees have stumbled a bit when their best pitchers aren't on the mound.

The team has also lost an inordinate number of close games. The Yankees are 4-8 in 1-run games, and 1-run games represent 33% of their overall matchups. That's a huge percentage, and a real problem...until Wednesday night. Dylan Cease was as good as any pitcher I've seen in the last few years on Wednesday night, and the Yankees had no business winning that game...and yet they persevered, and won in the 10th inning on a walk-off sac fly. Those are the games good teams steal away, and the Yankees managed it. The law of averages tells us that the Yankees' performance in 1-run games will normalize over time. Regression to the mean might just be in the Yankees' favor for a change. I'm going to take it as a positive, and look forward to a hot streak just ready to pop.

As always, thanks for the great question and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about the Yankees' hitting development, lineup congestion, and minor league promotions! Let's get at it:

David R. asks: The Yankees have had a terrible reputation for developing hitters as long as I've followed the team (not as long as the old-timers, but you get the picture). The Baby Bombers other than Judge failed. However, I looked up this season and it sure looks like there are a lot of homegrown Yankees in the lineup everyday. Has something changed in the Yankees' development plan and are these guys for real at the big league level?

David is absolutely correct; I can't remember another time in the last 20 or so years that the Yankees have started this many homegrown Yankees on a regular basis. On any given night, the Yankees start:

• C, Austin Wells - 104 OPS+

• SS, Anthony Volpe - 108 OPS+

• RF, Aaron Judge - 249 OPS+

• DH/1B/C, Ben Rice - 154 OPS+

• LF, Jasson Dominguez - 98 OPS+ (136 OPS+ vs. RHP)

That's pretty impressive, and they've also gotten contributions from some down roster homegrown role players as well. The other interesting nugget is that I still think that Wells and Dominguez have more in the tank as the season plays on. When you look at the lineup this way, it's pretty easy to see a high-level, homegrown core that can stick around for the next few seasons.

I think there are a lot of factors that play into why the Yankees suddenly have good, young hitters again. For one, I think that the Yankees' player acquisition and scouting staff are working in better harmony to identify amateur hitting talent with good ceilings. The Yankees helped develop all of the above guys, but they all have makeups and tools that made them moldable. Additionally, for all of the flak the hitting development team has gotten, the Yankees worked to overhaul that group in 2023 right as everyone here in the non-Judge department came through the system, and I think we're seeing the fruits of that labor. We routinely see guys revamp their bodies and mechanics to produce better outcomes now, and that has carried over into the minor league development side.

It's also important to note that the last group of Baby Bombers didn't necessarily fail on their own; injuries played a huge part of that story. How does the story change if Andujar doesn't tear his shoulder in 2019 or if Clint Frazier didn't suffer his deluge of serious concussions? In fact, years after the shoulder gave way, Andujar is having a mini-renaissance with very similar tools and mechanics when compared to his profile as a prospect. While the Yankees deserve blame for not getting guys to finish their development at the Major League level, there were also extenuating circumstances there.

I think it is an exciting time for Yankee fans, as you can see the makings of a young core again. I also think the Yankee development staff is doing a good job right now. I hope it sticks.

Fuster asks: is there a good way to get all the players onto the field/line-up or does Cashman need to trade a hitter for a pitcher?

On any given night, the Yankees have 4 viable starting outfielders for 3 spots, a good 1B, a pleasant surprise at DH, and the imminent return of an all-world power hitter. That's a lot of moving pieces! The reality is that these things usually have an unfortunate way of working themselves out, but let's pretend for a minute that the current logjam remains.

The elephant in the room is that Paul Goldschmidt's hot start reeks of imminent negative regression; his outburst is entirely based on unsustainably elite contact, and his power and plate discipline numbers have been poor. I really hope I'm wrong, because I've long loved Goldy's game, but he's something of a time bomb right now. He's also 37, with a bad back; getting a guy like that some rest once a week can only help him. Further simplifying the matter is his performance against RHP, which leaves something to be desired: .269/.304/.296, .600 OPS. The right answer is to sit Goldy once per week against whoever the toughest righty assignment is that week.

With Goldy in the lineup, the Yanks can shuffle Grisham, Dominguez, and Bellinger as needed. With Goldy out of the lineup, Bellinger can easily shift to 1B with little lost from a defensive perspective. Stanton's return will make things trickier, but Ben Rice should almost certainly sit against tough LHP, making things a bit easier from that side.

Again, someone will get hurt or underperform again; it's a matter of time. Let's see what the landscape looks like at the end of June.

Alan B. asks: With the need for starting pitching, and strong starts to several prospects, notably Cam Schlittler, and the Big 4 sitting in the Hudson Valley (High A) rotation (Cunningham, Hess, Lagrange, & Rodriguez-Cruz), at what point would you promote them and see if they can be of help at different points in the 2nd half of the year?

Schlittler is the guy who I think needs a call-up very soon; I'm not sure he's being challenged anymore at AA, and should finish off his development at AAA so that he's a real rotation (or trade) option. I will be doing a roundup of what I see on the pitching side of the minors very soon, but I agree that 3 out of those other 4 players deserve a call-up by the end of June if things keep going this positively.

Cunningham and Hess both pitched against tough SEC lineups. Both have mechanical and pitch tweaks they are working through right now, and as soon as they are both comfortable and repeating new actions consistently, I expect that they will be called up. Both can be fast-risers who can help the team in some capacity at least by early next year.

Rodriguez-Cruz is very intriguing. He's a quieter prospect, but I think he has the highest likelihood of the group to be a big league starter. 3 high-average or better pitches, clean delivery, and a knack for feel on the mound is the type of guy I salivate over from a player evaluation standpoint. He's the guy that's a bit more behind, but not by much.

All 3 guys could be in AA by July.