SSTN Mailbag: Kwan, Lagrange, And November Frenzy!

The gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands around the Yankees has reached a fever pitch. We've had multiple former players who were core members of previous World Series winning teams in the Yankees' most recent run of season-ending success (admittedly, a long time ago now) kick the Yankees while they're down. Most recently, Jorge Posada discussed his thoughts on the current Yankee leadership and direction, and the media has taken his comments and run with them.

Honestly? I think we've hit the point where we are all overblowing the Yankees' overall culture issues. I'll use Jorge Posada as an example. He noted that he's never felt welcome around the team and that his relationship with his team has been strained since his final season in pinstripes. I want to take you back to Posada's final season. Posada was a bad defensive catcher late in his career, and his performance back there cratered. The Yankees wanted to make him a full-time DH and backup catcher to make room for Russell Martin, who was superior in almost every way. Posada's reaction? He asked out of the lineup and made a scene. Sure, he later apologized, but it was an awful reaction, one some would argue detracts from clubhouse culture and distracts from a championship goal.

In the years since, Jorge has been invited back to assist at every Spring Training, attends Old Timer's Day, and attends a variety of other celebrations. Posada has made no effort to be connected to the modern game, and has said on numerous occasions that he has no understanding of the statistics and tools modern players utilize. In short, he is keeping himself away from the modern game, but has a very blunt and confident opinion regarding the culture around the Yankees.

Look, I'm not saying that there isn't some truth to the organization as a whole having a culture problem. The Yankees are a large corporation, and behave in the sterile, non-personal fashion that every large corporation behaves in the modern world. I can't stand that, and I'm sure it irks former players, particularly because that's opposed to the manner in which the organization appeared to comport itself in prior eras. I think there's a real discussion that former greats should have with the organization surrounding the corporate culture around the team.

I've heard a lot of big names complain from the periphery, but you know who I very conspicuously haven't heard share a public opinion? Andy Pettitte. Why is that significant? He's the most prominent former player with an active role in the organization, one that includes interfacing with current players. Until I hear a negative word from someone similarly close to the organization, I think we need to stop focusing on the culture from a corporate perspective, and start focusing on the on-the-field product.

One basic truism with which I absolutely, 100% agree: the Yankees play sloppy baseball and have played sloppy baseball since at least 2020 (maybe longer, but the team was surprisingly tight under the first two years of Aaron Boone). The Yankees need to play clean baseball if they want to win baseball games.

Another basic truism with which I absolutely, 100% agree: almost all teams play a sloppy brand of baseball today. I think 3 of the 4 final teams left in the playoffs this year play solid, fundamental baseball relative to the rest of the league. I didn't get to watch much of the World Series as I'm in Europe, but I watched a lot of highlights. The Rays, one of the teams who I thought played clean baseball this year, looked an awful lot like the Yankees in the World Series, just with less talent. Under pressure, mistakes can happen to any team at any time. The Brewers found a nucleus of players that naturally play clean baseball and a manager that can motivate and get the best out of his players.

If we're going to talk about culture, that is where it needs to start: clean, motivated baseball. The Yankees are corporate in their enterprise, and that will always be the case. I think making headway on the actual baseball and clubhouse is a far more critical effort.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Steven Kwan as a trade target, Carlos Lagrange's role, and the potential for a November signing spree! Let's get at it:

John B. asks: The Yankees need a contact hitter who can lead off, get on base, and maybe play centerfield. One name that interests me is Steven Kwan. What do you think of that as an idea and do you think Cleveland would deal him?

Kwan is someone who hasn't interested me in the past, but I think I'm changing my tune on that one. Kwan has speed, absolutely elite ability to make contact in the strike zone, proved he can play an elite defensive CF this year, and plays consistent baseball year-after-year.

Previously, I was concerned about what would happen to Kwan when his elite contact ability slipped even a little bit, because his contact quality metrics are among the worst in baseball. Kwan has to put the ball in play a ton for him to have value, and the second his swing-and-miss ticks up even a bit, it could spell trouble. I was also previously concerned about sticking him in CF, and Kwan proved to me that he could handle that concern. My third, and most interesting concern, was that Kwan never walked much. As a corollary with my first point, it would mean that if Kwan doesn't make contact, he'll rarely be on-base.

Well, something changed with Kwan this year: he posted an elite walk rate for the first time in his career, increasing his walk rate by almost 70%, which is incredible. Do I think that figure is sustainable? Yes, I think so, because that walk rate didn't increase because pitchers threw Kwan fewer strikes. Pitchers attacked Kwan similarly to how they had attacked him in years previous, throwing him a strike a bit more than on 51% of pitches thrown. The difference? Kwan was far more selective, dropping his in-zone swing rate by 7.6%, a very significant drop. This led to deeper counts and far more walks. The Yankees desperately need to get back to being "Savages In The Box," as Boone referred to his guys a lifetime ago, and Kwan fits that description better than anyone else nominally available.

I have concerns about singles and doubles drying up a bit at Yankee Stadium because of the smaller dimensions, but that concern is alleviated somewhat by the Kwan's newfound ability to draw walks and work counts. I think Kwan is a clear fit.

Kwan made over $7 million this season, and I would expect him to be close to $10 million in his final arbitration-eligible year. That's more than doable for the Yankees. While there's only one year of team control remaining for Kwan, he's likely to bring a ton of value, so he won't be cheap. The Guardians operate on a tight budget, and they have to bring in plenty of talent when they deal players like Kwan. The Guardians have a team that is coming of age, and to keep that going, they need players who are MLB (or near MLB) ready in return.

I think Spencer Jones is an obvious target, as is one of the Yankees' young starters. If I were the Yankees, I'd build a proposal around one of Elmer Rodriguez/Will Warren/Ryan Weathers and Spencer Jones. Those two represent a good starting point for negotiations before additional pieces are added.

Fuster asks: is it better for the guy to begin his MLB career as a reliever in 2027

while he strives to perfect his craft?

is it likely that he'll be able to refine and reduce his effort and learn to dominate hitters for six innings?

I've noticed the Mike King and Clay Holmes have been able to move into starting slots after successful stints as relievers.

From the time he reached AA, I've thought that Lagrange profiles best as a knockout reliever. It made sense to play it out and see if Lagrange could gain some semblance of command as he moved up the ladder. I don't think he can consistently command his fastball well enough to start at the big league level.

Lagrange has long levers and his delivery is stiff, without significant athleticism and flexibility I would expect to see from a starter. Out of the bullpen, an area in which the Yankees are perilously thin, Lagrange will likely live at triple-digits and learn to get guys out with wipeout secondary offerings. He won't need to prove that he can command his fastball over 90 pitches, and he'll likely be able to be more than just a 1-inning reliever, depending on how often he's utilized.

While I don't think King or Holmes are particularly similar to Lagrange in any real way, there is an interesting idea there. I have believed for some time that the best way to get pitchers to take the last step in their development is to get them experience in the big league bullpen, utilizing their stuff to learn how to get hitters out. With time in the big league, many guys will learn how to pitch or have their stuff jump in a way that allows them to be valuable as starters (King represents the latter situation while Holmes represents the former).

Unless the Yankees deal significantly from their starting pitching depth, a real possibility this offseason, I think the team should convert Lagrange to the bullpen.

Alan B. asks: With the impending CBA issue starting on December 1, are you in the camp that MLB will have a crazy moth in terms of player signings or trades in November, or will the only thing be the 40 man roster set, the QO, & non tender guys?

Yes, I'm in the camp that November will be very busy. I think most teams will operate as though it is better to ask for forgiveness than it is to ask for permission, by which I mean that if teams spend like crazy, they will get some form of grandfathering from whatever mechanism the next CBA utilizes to limit top-end spending.

With an impending lockout, I think teams will look to get their houses in order and work hard on their top priorities so that whatever short period comes following a likely lockout can be utilized to fill smaller gaps.