SSTN Mailbag: NPB Postings, Grisham, And The 40-Man!

Is it me, or does it feel like a really mellow off-season thus far? Normally, we start hearing a ton of rumors about player movement after the GM Meetings, and thus far...nothing. I don't think anyone has any inkling where the top free agents will land, and we really haven't had the usual hot air blow in from the rumor mill. Normally, we at least have agents floating rumors through their favorite writers (if you know, you know), but we don't even have that right now. It's very odd, and I was hoping to come up with some connection to the coming labor negotiations just over the horizon, but I'm coming up empty.

Despite the rumors, I'm hoping the Yankees will be players in both the free agent and trade market to supplement a strong roster core. This is a strong core of players that can easily get to the playoffs; it's 2-3 good pieces short of being a genuine World Series contender. I hope Hal let's the Yankees spend this off-season to make it happen.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about NPB postings, Trent Grisham accepting the QO, and the 40-Man Roster! Let's get at it:

Multiple People asked some variation of: Which of the posted or soon-to-be-posted NPB players do you think are worthy targets for the Yankees?

A few weeks back, I wrote about Munetaka Murakami, the power-hitting 3B/1B/LF/DH. I'll summarize what I wrote there for those that aren't inclined to read the full post: his light-tower power is for real, but I have real concerns about how he'll profile in the big leagues, and more specifically, for the Yankees. I don't personally believe he can play 3B, as his agility and quick twitch is nearly non-existent, and he makes a ton of errors over there as a result (and I'd expect it to be worse in MLB, as players hit the ball harder on average here versus in NPB). Offensively, he has a lot of in-zone swing and miss, and he has really struggled against good velocity, though some of that may just be reps and a swing tweak, much like what Ohtani did when he came over. I think it would be worth it for a team to try Murakami in LF, as his arm plays out there and he has some experience out there in NPB. However, defense will never be his strong suit, and I think he'll ultimately be a 1B/DH in short order. LF is tough at Yankee Stadium, and I don't think Murakami has the range for it, so in order for the Yankees to give him a run, they either need to believe that he can play 3B or move one of Rice or Stanton. I'm not sure I'm convinced enough that Murakami will be a star to move either Rice or Stanton, and I don't think Murakami can do more than fake it at 3B.

The only Japanese player I would target this offseason is Tatsuya Imai, who I wrote about last week. I've watched more video since then, and I am more convinced than ever that Imai is both a starter (despite his slight stature) and a worthwhile target. Imai didn't blow away the competition the way Yamamoto did in NPB, but he's been on the upswing for a few years now. Imai is 27 years old, with a mid-high 90s fastball that has some life and run. His best pitch is a slider with excellent drop, and like Trey Yesavage, it occasionally backs up instead of breaks, which really confuses hitters. Imai also has a solid split/change (I've seen him adjust the grip in both setups) and a curveball that might be better than average if he flashed it a bit more often. Additionally, NPB teams are way behind the pitching development that occurs here in the US, so I think based on pitch mixes and shapes, the Yankees are well-suited to get even more out of Imai, who is still young enough to grow as a pitcher. Even without added growth, I think he's an immediate mid-rotation starter, with the potential for more. I also believe that he's more gettable for the Yankees than previous Japanese pitchers, as his agent is Scott Boras, so we're only talking about money here. As an added bonus, we know that Imai is supremely competitive, noting his desire to beat the best, and surprisingly didn't give Yamamoto a ton of credit for his World Series performance, noting his goal was to beat him. I think this is an ideal target for the Yankees, who are looking to get over the hump.

Brian S. asks: What's your reaction to Trent Grisham accepting the Qualifying Offer? Does it hamstring the Yankees from doing other things and how does it change the Yankees's offseason planning?

I admit that I was surprised that Grisham accepted the QO. Yes, $22+ million is a lot of money for someone who just had his first above-average offensive season, but with the looming labor strife and the potential for a work stoppage, I thought Grisham would future-proof himself by taking a longer term deal this off-season. Instead, he decided that $22+ million now was better than more modest earnings over time, betting on himself to prove his worth again next season.

I'm not upset that Grisham accepted the offer, and I'm confused why so many people are upset. For those who have read the blog for a long time, I wrote that I thought there was a lot of upside to Grisham's game with some offensive tweaks when he was acquired from the Padres. We started to see some flashes in 2024, when he put together a strong stretch before being relegated to the bench again, but he overhauled his setup and the timing mechanism for the start of his swing coming into 2025, and they largely worked. After a scorching hot start, he leveled out a bit, but he was still a very productive, powerful hitter the rest of the way.

Much has been made of his struggles in CF in 2025, but there is more there when you dig into how the numbers breakdown. Grisham had something of a defensive slump in May, where a couple of misplays really dragged down his defensive numbers. Then, he played most of the remainder of the season with a hamstring/calf issue that clearly impacted his speed and range. With an offseason to heal, I expect Grisham to again be above-average defensively.

If he remains a patient hitter with pop (maybe not the numbers he produced this year, but think .750+ OPS and above-average CF defense), he's a very above-average player and someone who will both earn his salary and be good to have in the lineup everyday. Look around at the available free agent centerfielders; it's ugly out there. Unless you're interested in a Harrison Bader reunion, this makes sense.

Now, there's little question but that paying this kind of money for a centerfielder with the other holes Cashman has to fill means that Hal will have to spend some money this off-season. That was true regardless. The Yankees have the money, so the idea that spending decent money for 1 year of Trent Grisham hamstrings the Yankees in any way is a serious fallacy.

Of interest though, is the idea that the Yankees will still seek to bring back Cody Bellinger. I very much wonder what that means for Jasson Dominguez, but that's a discussion for another time.

Alan B. asks: Now that the 40 man roster is set, and no more maximum players that can be drafted from one club, and I'll say the pitchers that get drafted are: Beck, Lagrange, Selvidge, Cohen, & Morrill. Who doesn't get returned?

So, Lagrange is not eligible to be drafted until after 2026, so he will not be drafted in the Rule V this off-season. Henry Lalane, on the other hand, is eligible, and though he's spent a ton of time on the shelf and hasn't made it past Low-A, his stuff is so good that it wouldn't shock me if someone takes a flier and tries to hide him as the last man in a bullpen this year.

Otherwise, I agree with Alan's projected Rule V draft picks, and I was somewhat surprised that the Yanks didn't protect Beck, given the depth they'll need at SP this season. Realistically, the only guys I give a shot at sticking are Beck and Selvidge. Selvidge can probably get outs at the big league level right now as a lefty specialist with a good slider, though he wouldn't be much more. He might have a shot of sticking. I've always liked Beck, and if he has a (finally) healthy off-season to train and gets the velocity bump we've all hoped for, he can absolutely stick at the big league level. Without that bump though, he's an up-and-down arm.

Beyond that, Cohen doesn't throw nearly enough strikes to make the jump yet, and Morrill is in the same boat.