SSTN Mailbag: Opening Day, Minor League Considerations, And Pitching!

I did not watch a lot of the WBC. I wasn't fundamentally uninterested, nor did I view it as must-see television. I would have liked to watch more of the games, particularly the semifinals and the finals, but I have been traveling basically non-stop this month, working very long hours both in the early mornings and late into the night. As you can imagine, this schedule is not particularly conducive to enjoying baseball.

Obviously, we've discussed the WBC a lot around here at SSTN; some of us were very into the tournament, others were completely uninterested, and I'm fairly certain that I stood nearly alone in my rather neutral state. Something interesting occurred to me this week, though. I spent most of my week in a manufacturing plant, interacting with people from all walks of life, from mechanics to plant directors. I also spent some time at very small, local restaurants and bars. Again, a huge cross-section of people.

Ready for what the most frequent topic of conversation was everywhere I went? The WBC. Not the coming of March Madness. Not politics. Not the Golden Goal puck. The WBC. Frankly, I was completely shocked. Most of the people I spoke with were not huge baseball fans. They are casual sports fans who have a host of options. The WBC is what captivated them this week.

I'm not saying that this necessarily makes me feel any differently about the WBC, but I admit that it has me rethinking the event's significance, particularly if more of the game's best players participate. I think the WBC really did display some of the best that this game has to offer, and it's a good thing to grow the sport. Despite my relative detached stance on the WBC, I'm glad that it might pull more interest towards baseball more broadly, and I hope it continues.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about my personal Opening Day roster, discuss some minor league placement considerations, and think about the candidacy of some top prospects for the rotation! Let's get at it:

John N. asks: Andy:

Assume the NYY's Opening Day Starting Lineup is set:

c     Wells

1b   Rice

2b   Chisholm

ss    Caballero

3b   McMahon

lf     Bellinger

cf    Grisham

rf     Judge

dh    Stanton

No late injuries, so those are your starting 9.

What does the Yankees' optimal bench look like?  Tell me the next 4 that you are bringing north and why?  Please show your work!

Okay, so I have assumed that the 9 guys above are coming North. Here are the considerations that need to be made for the rest of the roster. I have listed the guys that I think are locks simply, while questionable positions have an asterisk:

Bench

Escarra

Goldschmidt

Rosario

*Cabrera/Schuemann/Grichuk/DeJong/Dominguez

Rotation

Fried

Schlittler

Warren

Weathers

*Gil

Bullpen

Bednar

Doval

Cruz

Hill

Yarbrough

Blackburn

Headrick

*Bird/Winquest/De los Santos

***

John muses that I have 4 bench slots to play with. This is not necessarily what I think the Yankees will do, but it's what I personally believe is optimal. For the first 3+ weeks of the season, I do not see the requirement for a 5th starter. Luis Gil looks awful, and I don't just mean the bottom-line numbers. He is pushing to get to any velocity, and even when he gets to some mid-90s heat, the fastball is incredibly flat and his secondary stuff isn't enough to allow the rest of it to play without average or better command at the edges of the strike zone, which Gil doesn't have. Maybe he'll find another gear or re-tool some aspects of his arsenal if given more time. Either way, I don't think he's one of the 5 best starters on the available roster right now. I would option Gil to AAA to begin the season and hope he can find some of his lost magic.

That opens up an unexpected roster spot. We could use that spot in the bullpen, particularly when you consider that pitchers will not be built up much past 85-90 pitches in their first turns through the rotation, but frankly, none of the options for the last spot in the bullpen have distinguished themselves. All but Winquest are optionable arms, so they can be sent down without hazard such that if the Yankees grow desperate for another arm after the first turn through the rotation, it can be managed. Winquest gets the 8th and final spot in the bullpen to begin the season by virtue of his big fastball/curve combination and his Rule 5 status.

That leaves us with 5 spots on the bench for at least Opening Day. I view Escarra, Goldy, and Rosario as locks. I have long been a huge Escarra fan, and do believe he is a starting caliber catcher with regular playing time, so the Yankees should keep him around. I get that Goldy is a big voice in the clubhouse, so he stays, though I don't really understand the fit. Rosario will platoon at 3B with McMahon and is available defensively as a utility guy. That leaves two more spots.

I think Grichuk is done, but the Yankees clearly want to see what they have there when it comes time for the regular season. I love Dominguez, and he looks much better in LF and from the right side of the plate to me this Spring, but I think he needs to prove it playing everyday at AAA, at least to start the season. Grichuk gets spot number 4.

Paul DeJong has already indicated a willingness to play at AAA if he doesn't make the roster. Shuemann is excellent defensively, and gives the Yankees a real backup middle infielder, at least for a few weeks. I'd take Shuemmann North as my final bench piece.

Alan B. asks: Andy, 3 quick things:

1) With Brock Selvidge out for the  season, would you fast-track Ben Hess, & start him in AAA as Selvidge's replacement? 

2) Seeing Roderick Arias run, with all the drafted infielders, would you stick him in CF in HV?

3) If both Gil and Weathers aren't ready, and both have options or to be stuck in the pen, or on the IL, how serious would you consider sticking both Elmer Rodriguez & Carlos Lagrange in the Yankees opening starting rotation.

My quick answers are : 1) Yes; 2) YES!!! 3) 83.7632%

1.) I think that Hess can handle AAA, but I also prefer the developmental environment of AA for pitchers right now. Hess has fewer than 40 AA innings, so I'd start him at that level, but I'd be ready to give him a very quick call-up after his first few starts. By the way, I'm very upset about Selvidge's elbow. He looked so, so good early on in camp - the extra velocity I kept waiting for had finally appeared, and his slider looked very sharp. It's a major disappointment that he won't get a chance to prove how far he'd developed this offseason.

2.) Arias is basically a non-prospect at this point, as I don't think he has close to enough pitch recognition or bat control to hit even upper level minor league hitting with any consistency. With his athleticism, yes, I think the Yankees will almost certainly expose him to the outfield this year in order to give him one last shot to perform. He'll get shoehorned out otherwise, but his prospect clock is about to strike midnight.

3.) Both guys did everything they could to prove that they deserved roster spots this Spring. I would seriously consider both for the roster, but I also don't see any reason to rush them early in the season. Lagrange still needs seasoning as a starter, and he's showing enough progress that the Yankees owe it to themselves to keep him developing down on the farm for now. I still think Lagrange will make his debut in the big leagues this year, and he'll make a very real impact for the Yankees.

Rodriguez is right at the finishing stage of his development. I don't think the Yankees need 5 starters to begin the season, and both Rodriguez and Gil will find themselves at AAA. It would not shock me if Gil falls behind Rodriguez on the depth chart, and that Gil ultimately moves to the bullpen for good this year. I still want to see Rodriguez force his way to the Majors with a good April.

I still am not worried about Weathers. I think he's still testing and tweaking his pitch mix as opposed to gameplanning for outs at this stage. His stuff looks fantastic, and I thought his delivery out of the stretch was improved. Spring stats offer numerous mirages, and I think this is one of those situations.