SSTN Mailbag: Pitching Keepers, Bichette, And The Gauntlet!

I had a totally different opening planned for today; something light-hearted, particularly given that the Yankees took 2 out of 3 from the Astros in Houston. However, last night's game just solidified some things that are bothering me, and here's an open forum to get them off of my chest.

The first is with the umpiring crew during the Astros series. Any umpire can have a bad game - it happens. When that happens, in my experience anyway, umpires will often quietly tell a player, "my bad, I'll get it next time," and everyone moves on. Brian Walsh had a particularly awful series, but I wasn't thrilled with the entire crew. With Walsh behind the plate, unbiased estimates say that Walsh umped in such a way that he added close to 1.5 runs in favor of the Astros. Despite the Yankees' self-inflicted implosion, that's enough to flip the game by itself. The next game, there were numerous head-scratching calls, led by Walsh's call that McMahon didn't catch a line drive at 3B (it was clear as day, and despite YES Network claiming that Walsh might have been blocked, camera angles show he had a clear line of sight to the play) and the strangest bat evaluation break I've ever seen, during which time Bednar went ice cold waiting around. I am not sure how a Major League crew can be as bad as this one was over the last 3 days. It bothers me that the Yankees always seem to have to beat more than just the players on the field in Houston.

Secondly, Brian Cashman, for whatever faults people have, did his job at the deadline: he re-stocked the bullpen and gave Boone a plethora of platoon options to play match-ups throughout a game. A manager should be a kid in a candy store with that kind of flexibility. At the deadline, I noted that the trades were exactly what the Yankees needed only if Boone was capable using his chess pieces appropriately, which I doubted. My doubts were, unfortunately, well-placed. Amed Rosario has been glued to the bench too often; Tim Hill is left on the bench when he has a lane of lefties to annihilate; Austin Slater is back, but he too wasn't utilized this week; and the beat goes on. We talk a lot about how the Yankees beat themselves with fundamentals, but they beat themselves strategically as well. Even when the roster puzzle pieces are acquired and placed in order, the guy arranging the puzzle can't put it all together. The Yankees have too much working against them on too many nights.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll play keep or trade with some young starters, discuss Bo Bichette's fit this off-season, and take a look at the next week and a half of schedule! Let's get at it:

Fuster asks: if one must be traded for a position player,

which of Gil, Warren or Schlitter 

should the Yankees choose to send away?

Oooh, I like this one. Those of you who have read my scouting reports on all 3 over the last few years know immediately which guy I'm keeping. I think Schlittler has a real shot to be a soft-ace with a little more growth in his ability to command his pitches and if his short slider/curveball combination can continue to be out pitches against both lefties and righties. I thought he was heading for a breakout, and he's eclipsed even my optimistic expectations. You keep Schlittler.

Gil and Warren are both really interesting cases. I have never been the high-man on either as a starter for different reasons. Warren's fastball jumps and plays above its pure velocity, but his secondary and tertiary offerings are very inconsistent still, and his command remains lacking, particularly later in starts. The Yankees understand this trend, which is why he often gets an early hook (though its too often earlier than I'd like to see from both a game perspective and a development perspective). On Gil, I have been relatively steadfast: I don't think he's a starter. I thought he might be proving me wrong at the beginning of last year, but I very much believe his performance through early-June was the outlier, not the new normal. I still believe strongly in Gil's stuff in a relief role, but I don't believe in his control, never mind his command, and I don't think his body has proven that it can hold up under a starter's workload. I like Warren and Gil for different reasons, but both are flawed.

To choose between trading Gil or Warren, it really depends on return. I have no doubt but that acquiring teams would have questions about Gil's medical records, and I doubt they are pretty. Warren has a lot of talent, but I also think there's a pretty defined ceiling. If I'm wrong about Gil's control/command and medicals, he has a higher ceiling. I think I'd be open to dealing either for the right piece in return. Neither is untouchable, to me anyway.

However, if the goal is to maintain starting pitching depth, I'd keep Warren and deal Gil if the choice is strictly binary.

William R. asks: There has been a lot of chatter about the impending free agency of Bo Bichette, who is playing really well this year. A lot of people don't think he can stick at short stop and others think he can play a good third base. If you were running the Yankees, would you consider Bichette for either position next year and beyond?

Bichette's free agency run is going to be fascinating. I'm sure he has insisted on staying at SS because of the projected payday for an above-average free agent at the position at 28 years old is significant, likely in the $250-$300 million range. At the plate, I think it's likely that Bichette's 2024 season was an outlier due to injury. He does a lot well: Bichette hits to all fields, makes gobs of contact, doesn't mishit hittable pitches in the strike zone, consistently gets the most out of below-average bat speed, and is likely to be productive at the plate with that profile for at least another 3-4 years. That's a really nice bat to have around, either as a lead-off guy or someone who bats just outside of the middle-of-the-order. There's a lot of value to Bichette's bat, and that can't be discounted.

However, there are other factors in Bichette's profile that give me pause. He was never particularly athletic, and his athleticism has clearly taken steps back over the last two years. His sprint speed is now in anemic territory, and he never produced a lot of value as a baserunner in any facet of that game to begin with. Defensively, I question people who are so sure that a move to 3B will immediately make him elite defensively. Don't get me wrong, it might! But he struggles coming in on balls at SS, something he will likely also struggle with at 3B, and critically, his arm has backtracked significantly over the last two seasons. Without elite athleticism, arm strength is critical to producing defensive value at the hot corner. I have real questions about Bichette's near-certain transition to 3B in the near future. He might be great there, but we've never seen it to know for sure.

As far as the Yankees are concerned, I like his bat for the lineup, but not much else. To me, Bichette can no longer play SS, so he's not an option to displace Volpe, and I really am not sure that he'll be good enough at 3B to quiet concerns about his defense. Sure, you could acquire Bichette and flip McMahon, but I'm not sure how much you gain by doing so, and it would come at a real cost.

I think Bichette will likely be a good hitter for someone, but I don't think it will be the Yankees.

Brian asks: The Yanks took 2/3 from the Astros (should have been a sweep) and are now on to the Jays, Tigers, and Red Sox. How do you feel going into these series? Can the Yankees come through with a winning record?

I feel surprisingly good coming into this series with the Jays. The Yankees have proved that they have better rosters than most of the American League. They just need to stay out of their own way, and for the moment, they are playing just well enough to overcome their self-destructive tendencies. I am thrilled with taking 2 of 3 from the Astros.

The Yankees need a sweep of the Jays if they want any shot at the AL East crown, and the Jays are on the ropes. Their bullpen has been even worse than the Yankees' bullpen (hard to believe, but true) and I think the Yankees have a superior offense. If the Yanks can be patient at the plate, make starters throw pitches before giving way to the bullpen early, I think the Yankees can get a sweep.

I don't know why I'm this optimistic, but I think the Yanks will win a total of 8 games between the 4 series (Astros, Jays, Tigers, Red Sox). They sweep the Jays, lose 2 of 3 to the Tigers, and come back with 2 wins against the Sox. The end of the season will sure be interesting.