SSTN Mailbag: Predictions Update, Deadline Acquisitions, and Peraza!

It's amazing the difference a couple of weeks can make. While the Yankees had the best record in the AL East, I got the sense that very few fans actually believed that this was a good team. Sure, the Yanks were (and are) banged up, the back of the rotation was unreliable at best, and multiple guys were slumping, but the team kept winning.

Now? The guys who were slumping have awoken from their slumber, the bullpen, which was already pretty darn good, has become elite since Devin Williams was reborn in the setup role, and the team is beginning to win some of the close games that good teams need to win. I don't hear as much negativity around the team, which is really nice.

I am having a ton of fun watching this team. I said last year that watching Soto and Judge together was the most fun I'd had since 2019 watching the Yankees; this year eclipses last year. The Yankees have a host of homegrown players contributing in big ways to Yankee wins; they have multiple dominant pitchers; and the offense has proven it can beat teams in a variety of ways. For the most part, it's just been good, fun baseball. Even better? The team looks like they're loose and having fun, which makes it even easier to root for them. I have a very good feeling about this team.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll do a status check on my pre-season predictions, talk about potential deadline acquisitions and expenditures, and check in on Oswald Peraza! Let's get at it:

Brian asks: Can we check in on your preseason predictions? I know that you usually do a final assessment at the end of the season, but it might be interesting to look at it throughout the year.

Sure! I'll highlight some of the big hits and misses so far:

• Anthony Volpe - I am eerily close on Volpe. I predicted a final line of .240/.320/.440 for Volpe. He's at .239/.322/.432. I think he'll get the 23 homers I predicted. If the Yankees let him run just a little more, he could still get close to 35 steals. Volpe has turned the corner, and is legitimately a top-8 SS in baseball right now.

• The Starting Rotation - I was one of the few who thought this group would be pretty good without Cole and Gil. I was the high-man on Rodon, noting that while he'd have some clunkers mixed in, he'd flash the dominant stuff that he's capable of more frequently. I was right, only he's exceeded expectations thus far, mostly because he's limiting hits at a rate that's both elite and far beyond what he's ever done. Fried has been an ace, as I expected (I noted in the off-season that Fried was better than Cole on a per-inning basis over the last 4 years). Schmidt has been exactly who I thought he was since returning, save for his first start clunker. I was wrong about Carrasco, but since he and Stroman left the rotation, Yarbrough has been fantastic (those of you who have been around for a while know that I have always liked him, going back to game recaps in 2018 and 2019). They're a top-10 group right now; I expect that to stick.

• The Oswald(o)s: I was right - they were on-pace for 2.0 bWAR together, though they didn't do enough to make us yearn for more at 3B. The Yankees need a solution there at the deadline.

• Bellinger - he was worse than my expectations to start, and he's been better than my predictions over the last month. I think we need to wait this one out a bit.

• The Yankees will not have two players that reach 30/30. It was a fun thought, though.

• Dominguez may yet win the Rookie of the Year award, though he won't reach 30/30. He's hitting below my expectations in the aggregate, though he's been one of the Yankees' 3-4 best hitters when batting left-handed. This is a guy who typically hits his stride in the summer, so I think we're still playing the waiting game on Dominguez.

• I was so wrong about Aaron Judge; he's better than he's ever been. I've never been happier to be wrong about one.

• Rice has been better than I expected, and that's because he's shown pop against lefties that I didn't expect. Rice might very well be a keeper.

• Goldy has been far better than I expected, though there's been a ton of luck in his contact profile. I hope he continues to defy the underlying numbers.

• My biggest miss? Austin Wells. He's been roughly average at the plate while being very good behind it. That's short of what I expected. I can't help but think that a few really hard foul balls off of his shoulder just as the season began is affecting his performance.

Fuster asks: what can Cashman add and, given his preference to avoid paying through the nose for pitching at the deadline, is there a very good hitter likely to be available and well-fitted to the team?

and which desirable assets can the organization spare in trade?

I'm going to revert back to what I said last week. I think the most likely acquisitions are guys like Andujar and IKF, who are flawed, but significant upgrades at 3B and help balance the lineup against left-handed pitching. Both guys are relatively cheap, on expiring contracts, and have experience playing in NY. I really believe both guys should be on the radar.

I don't expect either to be terribly expensive. The A's typically go for quantity over quality in trade talks, while the Pirates will likely settle for a decent mid-level prospect who doesn't fit the Yankees' plans and a lottery pick.

For Andujar, a guy who was once a top-100 prospect who is finally establishing his place after injuries and underperformance, I think the cost will be a bit more than some expect. Again, the A's like quantity, particularly in the form of pitchers, and they're fine with trying to make something out of guys who either stall out in the high minors, have gaps due to injury, or are not likely to carve out roles with their current team. Guys that fit that mold include: Clayton Beeter, Everson Pereira, Brock Selvidge (injury, not underperformance), TJ Rumfield, Jorbit Vivas, and pick your favorite lottery ticket. One or two of those plus a lottery ticket should net the Yankees someone like Andujar if the A's are out of it.

The Pirates are in firm rebuilding territory. They need a long-term piece, and I think they'd take one mid-level prospect and a lottery ticket for IKF. Think in terms of someone like Jesus Rodriguez, plus a lottery ticket.

Dave S. asks: At what point do the Yanks give up on the Oswald Peraza experiment and cut their losses?

I think we're getting close. Peraza has great hands, a good arm, and no bat. That's not a big league everyday 3B. Unfortunately, it may not be enough to be a utility man on a championship team. Peraza is still around because of all of the injuries the Yankees have right now. I get the sense that even Jorbit Vivas is ahead of Peraza on the depth chart.

If the Yankees acquire a 3B, or force Ben Rice to 3B, or even get Jazz Chisholm Jr. healthy, I think Peraza's roster spot is in trouble.