SSTN Mailbag: Realistic Offseason, Weaver, And The Mets!

Some smoke, but almost no fire. I think that's pretty clearly the most apt way to describe the Yankees' offseason thus far. That said, I wasn't necessarily that interested in the pieces that have come off the board so far. The only real names that have come off the board thus far of any interest to the Yankees, according to available reporting, are Luke Weaver and Michael King. We'll deal with Weaver more below, but King was an interesting litmus test.

King signed an incredibly flexible deal to return to the San Diego sunshine. $25 million per year for 3 years with opt outs between each season. This is a guy with significant success both out of the bullpen and in the rotation, but someone with a scarier injury history than many have acknowledged. More interestingly, his most recent body of work showed some real decline, though he's still clearly useful in a bullpen role, and you can dream on him getting past some recent physical ailments to start. In the current market, which many observers thought would be more favorable to teams than players prior to the start of the offseason, that high-end swingman profile was worth $25 million. I am not necessarily defending Hal's arbitrary spending caps, but the early numbers for pieces that aren't real difference makers feel like poor decisions.

On some level though, the Yankees need to be in on some pitching this offseason, which is why I thought King was a litmus test. He was the most likely impactful free agent addition among the guys available in the US. I would argue this was a litmus test, because if the Yankees jumped to a big number for King, that would have signaled to me that they were out on some more intriguing options. Given that King isn't back in pinstripes, I'm holding out hope for Imai, who I have rated as one of the best free agents available on the free agent market this offseason, and an interesting trade to re-stock the big league pitching staff. A guy can dream, right? Let's hope...

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll take a look at what a realistic offseason looks like for the Yankees, discuss the Luke Weaver signing, and discuss some of the Mets' recent moves! Let's get at it:

Brian S. asks: The Yankees have been very quiet so far in free agency and trades. December is mostly over, so what do you think a realistic offseason looks like for them now that some names are off of the board?

Honestly? It doesn't look much different than it did to me at the end of the World Series. If I put my GM hat on, none of the pieces in whom I'd have had any interest have come off of the board. In addition, given that those pieces aren't moving, the Yankees' actual front office has done a decent job of filling in around the periphery of the roster at bargain prices. To sum up those acquisitions:

• Re-signed Ryan Yarbrough, an excellent swingman who can provide innings from the left side both in a starting or relief role.

• Brought back Amed Rosario, a utility bench bet who really hits lefty pitching well and can fill in adequately all over the field.

• Found a lottery ticket bullpen option with upside in the Rule 5 Draft in Cade Winquest.

So, the Yanks haven't been totally stagnant. Unexciting, but those depth moves still represent important work. These are the types of moves every team needs to make, but the Yankees made sure to grab their top choices early with Plan A and Plan B still on the board this offseason. Here's what I think Plan A looks like:

• Sign Tatsuya Imai. Again, I have him ranked quite a bit higher on my free agent list than most, and the rumors are that the Yankees are bidding hard to land him this offseason. I think he'll be fantastic when he comes stateside, and this will be a huge get for the Yankees. I really believe this is the top focus for the Yanks.

• Re-sign Cody Bellinger. I am uneasy about re-signing Bellinger long-term. I won't be upset, but the underlying numbers don't encourage a ton of confidence. I still think this is what the Yankees want, though.

• Deal one of Dominguez or Jones. If Bellinger returns, one of these guys will go, with the other becoming insurance or a glorified 4th outfielder. The Yankees will be able to bring back significant pieces by trading either, regardless of whatever you think about their futures. The Yanks will be able to get real bullpen pieces and likely a young infielder out of a deal for either guy.

Even with little else, this would be a very good offseason, one that would make the Yankees among the best teams in the league. I think Plan B involves only accomplishing one of the 3 above while finding a "big" trade to fill out the roster elsewhere. Maybe that means dealing minor league pitching for big league help, maybe it includes Jones, but I think Cashman will need to get creative if one or both of Imai and/or Bellinger doesn't happen.

David G. asks: How do you feel about Luke Weaver signing elsewhere? Big aav, but small commitment overall.

I do not feel very good about Weaver being terribly consistent moving forward. I had a larger article planned on Weaver, but life got in the way, so I'll give the short version here. The PR around Weaver this year was that he modified his change-up to get a better shape, but I think that missed the overall point. Weaver's change-up was still generally good, but it's effectiveness was nowhere near as elite as it had been in 2024. That boils down to a few factors:

1. The shape wasn't actually any better than it had been. Weaver's change-up gained approximately 150+ RPMs on average in 2025 with more horizontal movement and less drop. In a vacuum, this isn't terrible, but I don't think it matched his 4-seam fastball as well. Weaver at his best was a north-south pitcher, and a change that gave him more east-west didn't help at all. It kept the pitch in the zone for longer and allowed bats to catch it with greater frequency, even if the contact profile wasn't great.

2. Weaver didn't locate the change-up as well in 2025 as he did in 2024. Some of that could be the change in shape, but misses led to less chase and more contact.

3. Weaver lost velocity in 2025. Not only did that mean that his fastball wasn't as effective, but it also meant that his change-up didn't have as much deception due to less velocity separation.

None of these changes were Earth shattering on their own, but each incremental change taken in context had a large impact. Weaver has some work to do to get back to being the guy he was in 2024, but I'm not convinced some of the decline wasn't based on father time, who is undefeated. I really like Weaver as a player, but I don't think he was worth an 8-figure salary.

Michael G. asks: The Mets seem to be retooling their team by signing ex-Yankees. Does this say more about the Yankees or the Mets?

I'm actually not sure it says anything about either team. The Mets have deep pockets and are signing guys that have proven to varying extents that they can at least survive in New York (though I'm not sure Devin Williams belongs in that category). The Mets had clubhouse issues last season, and are looking for a new complexion. The Yankees never got over the hump with the guys they've let move across town, and I'm not sure they'll miss any of the guys that call Queens home now.

Remember when the Mets were supposed to be the new Yankees after signing Juan Soto? I'm still waiting...