SSTN Mailbag: Rotation Rankings And Predictions!

Belated Happy Opening Day, everyone! I genuinely treat the first day of the season as a holiday wherever I am in the world. This year, I was very happy to wake up in the comfort of my own home, which meant that I was able to regale my wife and daughter with baseball songs in the kitchen until I left for work. It's a simple tradition, but one that brings me immense joy. My daughter is now old enough to recognize the songs, and she enjoys it as well, so I can now safely assume that the tradition will be passed along.

As far as the first game was concerned, I was reasonably happy! The Netflix broadcast was beyond awful (seriously, it would be wonderful if just one of the myriad of broadcast partners MLB has hired over the last decade could figure out that most fans just want the game to breathe as opposed to have a network's overwrought production jammed down our throats), but the baseball was pretty great to watch as a Yankee fan. The bottom of the lineup contributed with timely contact! The Yankees moved runners! The offense showed pop and speed! They attacked hittable pitches! And they put up 7 runs on a night where Aaron Judge struck out 4 times! Yeah, it was pretty great to see.

I tend to be one for analysis as opposed to feelings, but I can't help but feel an omen based off of the first game of the season. Trent Grisham tripled on Opening Day, which hadn't happened for the Yankees in a long time. What was the last time, you ask? Johnny Damon...in 2009, the last time the Yankees won the World Series. Oh yeah, I'm clearing my October schedule right now.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, I'll rank the AL East rotations and give my predictions for the Yankees in 2026! Let's get at it:

Fuster asks: Gil looking flat and Cole and Rodon working their way back,

while Toronto also has troubles with Yesavage joining a coupla other injured starters.

how would you rank the AL East rotations for 2026?

Suddenly, Luis Gil looks like peak Luis Gil from 2024. If that sticks, then the Yankees' projection looks that much better. There are two clear top rotations, and then there's everyone else fighting for spots 3-5.

The Yankees and Red Sox boast 2 of the 4 or 5 best rotations in all of baseball. Completely healthy, both rotations could likely lay claim to the best in baseball both at the top of the rotation and in terms of depth. For the first time in a long time, both the Yankees and Red Sox can get to 9 or 10 on the depth chart before you start getting to pitchers who likely wouldn't start the season in the top-5 of an average team's rotation. That's pretty excellent!

Garrett Crochet is a pretty excellent ace, though Fried or Cole is a worthy adversary. If Cole's recovery continues without a hitch, he looks like the ace he was before the elbow started barking in 2024. That might be a key to this question.

If all of the Yankees' and Red Sox's injured starters were to remain injured, I'd give the slight edge to the Red Sox's rotation. There's a little more experience there, and a little less dependence on improved performance from the guys in the 4-5 slots. However, if we project even a modicum of likely health for the guys that are injured...I think I take the Yankees. A rotation of Cole-Fried-Rodon-Schlittler-Weathers/Warren/Gil/Rodriguez/Lagrange should be truly frightening to opposing batters. Crochet-Early-Gray-Suarez-Bello/Tolle/Crawford/Sandoval doesn't feel as deep or as daunting. It's close with injuries, but I think I still give the nod to the Yankees. With that in mind, here's my ranking:

1. Yankees

2. Red Sox

3. Blue Jays

4. Orioles

5. Rays

The Blue Jays are already banged up in the rotation, but their top-3 starters should remain formidable without further injury, with enough depth to withstand the current volume of injuries. The Orioles' rotation is experienced and professional, but it really lacks high-end talent. The Rays very clearly have the worst rotation in the AL East...it's ugly and they'll lean on their bullpen a lot.

I honestly believe this is the best rotation the Yankees have put together in quite some time.

Brian S. asks: If you already have this planned as a separate article, don't include this in the mailbag, but can you write up your predictions? Just can't remember if you do it in the mailbag or somewhere else. Thanks!

You bet! I wouldn't go into a season without listing my predictions. Unfortunately, one game has already been played, but I don't think anything happened that would change any of my predictions. Without further ado, let's get to it:

• Catcher - I know I predicted this last year, but I think injuries really tanked a good guess: Austin Wells will put all the pieces together and produce an All Star campaign and be one of the 3 best catchers in value according to most major metrics. He is an elite pitch framer and solid overall defender already, and we all know that impact offense is in there. He's shown flashes, and now he'll really put together long stretches of good offense. Here's my guess for Austin Wells' final line: .253/.335/.475, with 28 HR. Combine that with his defense, and Wells will reach the 6+ WAR threshold in one of the major publicly available WAR calculations.

• First Base - Ben Rice brings significantly improved 1B defense to the table and builds on the offense he provided in his first full season as a starter. Pitchers have to think more about Rice more, so he'll get pitched around occasionally, which leads to more walks, but he'll also get to more power. I think Rice will hit .250/.345/.530, with 35 HR. Rice produces 5+ WAR on most calculations.

• Second Base - Jazz is an incredibly useful player, but he continues his trend of incredible hot streaks with maddening stretches of poor hitting. He is one of the best fielding 2B in the game, and he continues to steal a lot of bags anchoring the bottom half of the order. Very quietly, Jazz drew more walks than ever last year, and that patience continues. The hot streaks outweigh the cold, and Jazz's overall numbers are outstanding: .250/.335/.525, with 35 HR and 40 SB. No, it's not 50/50, but it's still pretty incredible. Jazz is one of the 20 best players in baseball in all WAR calculations. He'll earn quite a payday.

• Shortstop - Jose Caballero is a fun spark plug, but there's a reason he hasn't been a full-time SS anywhere. Defense proves to be average or worse when playing the position full-time, and the bat/speed combination isn't enough to overcome the defense. Caballero fits far better as a utility player, providing a spark off the bench 2-3 days per week or pinch running. Anthony Volpe returns in May/June. His defense is excellent, which steadies the infield, and he proves to be a really exciting double-play partner for Jazz. Volpe continues his offensive struggles after shoulder surgery, and doesn't lock up the SS job for good.

• Third Base - Ryan McMahon is fantastic defensively at 3B, and that continues. I like the changes he's making to his swing, and I think he can approach average offensively, making him a very useful player. I still would have preferred an offensive upgrade here, but McMahon is roughly a 2 WAR player, hitting 20 HR and producing a .220/.310/.420 batting line.

• Outfield - I do not believe Aaron Judge has reached his decline phase yet. He'll produce one more MVP-like season, though it will fall short of his last 3 healthy seasons, and will fall short of 10 WAR. His batting line will be .310/.425/.620, with 50 HR. Yes, he'll win another MVP. Cody Bellinger remains a good player, bringing a variety of skills to the offense and defense. However, he's had a balky back for some time, and I believe it could cost him some games this year. His overall batting line will be similar to last season, but with 150 fewer plate appearances. Trent Grisham proves that last season wasn't a fluke offensively, and his defense bounces back with a return to lower body health. Again, it will be a similar batting line to last season, but I think the defense will be greatly improved, and Grisham will be close to 5 WAR. Jasson Dominguez tears AAA apart in April and forces his way onto the roster once Randal Grichuk is released at the end of April. Dominguez takes advantage of injuries and his own improved performance to improve upon his rookie season. He remains a threat batting left-handed, is merely slightly below-average defensively, and improves enough batting right-handed to be usable batting from that side. Dominguez produces 2 WAR, with 25 SB, 18 HR, and 120 wRC+.

• Designated Hitter - Giancarlo Stanton mashes when healthy, hitting 27 HR over 300 plate appearances. Overall, he is the Yankees' 2nd best hitter in raw batting numbers. He finishes the season just 20 HR shy of 500 for his career.

• Bench - Amed Rosario is the game's best cheerleader and continues to mash left-handed pitching. He is a valuable platoon partner at 3B and moonlights in the outfield. Goldschmidt has almost nothing left, but is a valuable piece in the clubhouse and comes up with some random big hits throughout the year, though we all complain that the roster spot could be used better. JC Escarra is an odd fit as a second lefty hitting catcher, but he's so good that it doesn't make sense to move him. The Yankees are thankful they hung onto him. As discussed above, I think the last bench spot is cycled between Dominguez, Grichuk, Caballero, and Spencer Jones (who does not hit anywhere close to enough to justify a roster spot).

• Rotation - The Yankees have the best rotation in baseball, with too many valuable pitchers for rotation spots. It's a great problem to have. Schlittler and Fried make the All-Star team, Cole pitches like an ace in the 2nd half, Rodon matches the previous year's production, and Weathers, Warren, Gil, and Elmer Rodriguez all make valuable starts throughout the year.

• Bullpen - Bednar is a rock at the back of the bullpen, with Doval pitching better in his 2nd year in pinstripes. Cruz is likewise, a productive setup man. In the 1st half, pitching is dicey in the bullpen, with the bullpen blowing some leads unnecessarily. Elmer Rodriguez, Carlos Lagrange, and Luis Gil all spend significant time in the bullpen by the end of the year to stabilize the group, and it works incredibly well. The bullpen begins the season as a hole for the Yankees, but it becomes a weapon by the end of the year. Cade Winquest remains interesting, but the Yankees ultimately return him to the Cardinals in May.

Overall Predictions:

1. Judge wins his last MVP.

2. Bednar will not lead the league in saves because the Yankees win by too many blowouts, though he still saves 41 games.

3. Carlos Lagrange becomes a multi-inning fire-breathing dragon in the 2nd half, striking out more batters than the Yankees have seen out of the bullpen since Aroldis Chapman.

4. Jasson Dominguez forces himself into the Yankees' future plans. Spencer Jones does not.

5. By WAR, the Yankees are the best team in baseball, not the Dodgers.

6. The Yankees win 98 games.

7. The Yankees win the World Series in 6 games over the Dodgers.