SSTN Mailbag: Schlittler's Cutter, Judge, And Improved AAA Player!

What a start. Seriously, I can't remember a time in my life where the Yankees' starting pitching looked this dominant to begin the season. The Giants are likely to be a middling team, but many experts expect the Mariners to finish the regular season among the best teams in the American League. The Yankees handled them with ease.

That reality isn't incredible to me based on my projection for this roster, but it is incredible relative to the expectations of Yankee fans. Yesterday, I walked into a fish market, and the guy at the counter noticed my Yankee shirt. As a fellow Yankee fan, we got to talking about the team and their start. As excited as the gentleman was about the Yanks' hot start, there were comments that captured the general hesitance much of the fanbase feels about getting excited about this team. Among the comments this gentleman made:

• "Yeah, the pitching's been great, but we still can't hit."

• "They always start hot. Let's see what happens in July."

• "Man, if everyone gets healthy, this might be the best pitching staff I've ever seen...Rodon might only be a 4th starter on this team."

The Yankees were the best offense in baseball last season, though the bats have often gone cold in the playoffs over the last 7 years. The Yankees have often come out of the gates hot, only to go through an extended period of bad baseball during the Boone years. Even pessimistic fans can see how good the Yankees' starters are, even at partial strength.

The juxtaposition between facts and feelings when it comes to the Yankees is enough to make someone seasick. I just hope the Yankees stay hot all season and give even the most pessimistic fans a reason to believe.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Schlittler's cutter, Judge's slow start, and an improved AAA player! Let's get at it:

Larry P. asks: You wrote last year about Schlittler's cutter really being two separate pitches: a cutter and a really hard slider that was located low in the zone. There's been a lot of talk about Schlittler's cutter this season. Is there really a change or is he just throwing the harder one more frequently?

It's actually a different pitch. To recap what I discussed last year, Schlittler's cutter was actually two distinct pitches by the end of the year and playoffs: a traditional cutter that sat 92-94 MPH and a 88-90 MPH short slider (classified by Statcast as a cutter) that Schlittler worked primarily low in the zone down-and-away to righties and down-and-in to lefties. The separation between the two really worked in Schlittler's dominant playoff performance against Boston.

This year, Schlittler's cutter is a different animal, and yes, it's definitely a cutter now. Schlittler is now averaging just over 94 MPH on the cutter, and that average is skewed by some slower cutters on a cold day in Seattle on Wednesday. Schlittler almost doesn't look like he's trying to spot the cutter in any particular location; he's just letting it rip, knowing that guys can't hit it. From a movement perspective, the cutter is breaking almost as much as the short slider was last year, but it's not dropping anywhere near as much as either the short slider or the more traditional cutter last season. In short, Schlittler's refined cutter is a mid-90s buzzsaw. He knows the opposing hitter can't touch it, so he's just letting it rip.

And if hitters do touch it? They are making such poor contact that it almost doesn't matter. I will be curious to see how it plays once Schlittler plays against a better offense, but again, the Mariners weren't slouches. Schlittler has enough tools in the toolshed to work through lineups in different ways, and his stuff is so incredibly good that he can simply overpower even good lineups. I was in on Schlittler earlier than anyone writing in print or on the internet, and even I didn't see the ace upside until mid-last season. The guy just keeps getting better, and his new cutter is simply diabolical.

Brian S. asks: Judge has 2 homers, but that's about it offensively. Should we be worried that we're seeing the beginning of Judge's decline phase?

Let's all take a deep breath. I agree, Judge looks all kinds of off at the plate, but that doesn't mean his decline phase is here. I think Judge is making good swing decisions, showing reasonably typical plate discipline, and still maintains elite bat speed. As we've seen over the years when Judge slumps, his timing is off, and he's making contact at the wrong parts of his swing, which is leading to him driving the ball straight into the ground without much thump.

I really chalk it up to a timing issue. I hate saying this, but numerous high-profile hitters from the WBC are struggling through the season's first week. I think there is some manner of performance hangover after ramping up to play big games before the MLB regular season. My eye tells me that Judge will be just fine.

Steve G. asks: It's really early in the season, but have any performances really jumped out to you at AAA so far? Scranton has a stacked roster, so I'm curious if you see anything new we should notice?

I'm going to stray from the big names. Brendan Beck has been absurdly good for Scranton through his first two starts, with crazy strikeout numbers. More fascinatingly, he's generated huge whiff rates on his fastball. As many of you will note, I've written about Beck numerous times over the years. Much of his career had been derailed my arm injuries, and with his control and general pitchability, I noted that even a 1-2 tick gain in fastball velocity would take him from a fringe big league pitcher to a solid rotation piece.

Surprisingly, Beck hasn't gained any velocity; in fact, he's right where he was last year, yet no one has hit his fastball yet. Sure, Beck has located his fastball really well, but there's more going on here. Beck had a splitter last year, but he didn't trust it and the pitch was both seldom used and often planted in the dirt 58 feet from the pitcher's mound. This year, something has changed. The pitch is consistently spinning under 1000 RPM (less spin is better for a splitter), it's dropping significantly more, and Beck is finding the bottom of the zone and just below with authority. He's throwing the pitch 12% of the time, and it's keeping guys off-balance with his other offerings.

Combine that with a fastball that might still pick up as the weather gets warmer, and we may be looking at a guy who has taken enough of a step forward to be considered a starter in the big leagues.